The head of the Scottish national party (SNP) Nicola Sturgeon said that his country will try again through a referendum to seek independence from the UK, implements a Brexit. Despite the fact that Brussels is good news for the European Union all can result in serious destabilization, says our expert.
The bill on the second referendum will be submitted for consideration in the Scottish Parliament next week. In the first referendum, which took place in September 2014, 55% of voters voted against secession. However, voting for a British exit from the European Union revealed that 62% of Scots want to remain part of a United Europe.
Whether the new situation to tip the scales in favor of a free Scotland, and how it will affect the UK economy, “MK” said associate Professor of the Department of integration processes, MGIMO Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli.
With high probability we can say that Scotland will be able to hold a second referendum on independence because London has neither the political nor the moral possibility to try to stop this process. First, the referendum is legitimate and that he was once held, only confirms this thesis.
Second, in the Parliament of great Britain became more representatives of the Scottish national party, which probably will support a new vote. The only thing that can prevent a referendum to be held, it is the most incredible gift of London in the form of the unseen of the rights to autonomy, but to imagine that it can be very difficult.
But it is not known if it will work in Scotland’s second attempt to achieve independence, but now her chances are much higher than they were for the first time. On the one hand the Scots dissatisfied with the UK out of the EU and other Brussels clearly gives to understand that it was favourable to the severance of Edinburgh with London. This means that despite the fact that, breaking with the UK, Scotland will in any case be left out of the European Union, her claim to return to a United Europe will consider as a priority.
– Scotland may affect the UK economy?
– In the first place, as great Britain will change after she will leave the EU, and transformation in one case will affect the Kingdom’s economy negatively and the other positively. All the consequences have yet to calculate, as London is still negotiating with Brussels. Against this background, the secession of Scotland may finally mix all the cards. It is clear that in the short term the consequences will be negative, but what they will be in the medium and long term, is difficult to say.
– Exit of Scotland from the UK can turn back Brexit?
– This does not happen, because even before the referendum, the Edinburgh warned London on the second attempt of divorce, if the UK will leave the EU, but this did not stop. But the output of Scotland will affect the mood within the EU, because some EU countries have their own regional problems, especially in Spain (Catalonia and the Basque Country) and Belgium (Flanders). Divorce Edinburgh with London and its subsequent entry into the European Union could lead to similar processes throughout Europe. The Spaniards have already said they are opposed to Scotland was adopted in the European Union as a separate state, as they fear that their experience will be a positive example for Basques and Catalans. And this story certainly destabilizie the situation within the European Union.
– And how in these conditions will affect the output of Scotland, in Northern Ireland?
– Really just for Northern Ireland British exit from the European Union entail the most negative consequences. In particular, the Irish will have to apply for a visa to travel from the Northern Ireland independent Ireland, as they will have to cross the border between the EU and the rest of the world. For them it would be a big problem, which could lead to serious escalation of the conflict between the British and the Irish. But it is too early to say whether it will reach the aggravation to the point that will again raise the head of the IRA. First you need to look at the conditions under which the British will leave the EU, in particular, as will be regulated border.
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