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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Trump, farewell: the genius of sociology, figured out the Clinton victory in the presidential election

In opinion polls on the chances of Clinton and trump in the presidential elections in the United States, we sometimes difficult to understand something — the American media and pollsters assess the candidates ‘ debates or preferences of Americans, sometimes with diametrically opposed conclusions. Where an objective picture? We turned to the man who after the 2012 election became a “star”, predicting the outcome with a rare precision.

And with the scientists we asked if for the remainder of the US election time to influence the outcome of any cool dirt.

photo: AP

A graduate of the University of Chicago Nate silver, an economist by training, “have invented” analytical system with many inputs, which at first used to predict the results of baseball games. And then “put” it to politics.

Silver handles data of a large number of surveys and then “recycles” them, given, for instance, the “weight” of each case study (audience coverage, survey method, reliability of the source, its relationship with a particular party).

On US presidential election 2008, Nate silver accurately predicted the election results in 49 of the 50 States. In 2012 — in all States, and became downright mediatoday.

Now silver publishes new forecasts in his blog.

So, the latest data from Nate silver. The probability of winning Hillary Clinton — 83,5%, Donald trump, and 16.5% (note, here it is the probability of winning in voting percentage further).

The screenshot shows the distribution of probability of the individual States. (By the way, before the 2012 election silver estimated the probability of an Obama victory at 90.9%).

The following table is a forecast of the vote of the Electoral College (Electoral vote) and U.S. population (Popular vote).

As you know, elections in the United States are as follows. First, the popular vote (this will happen on 8 November 2016). And then, based on these results, a month and a half the electoral votes — 538 them. The winner must score at least 270 of their votes.

The idea is that the electors representing a particular state, should be “automatically” vote for the candidate who wins there 8 Nov. However, there are exceptions — for example, in 2000, the year representing the district of Columbia lady handed a blank ballot, not by checking for al Gore, who won in Colombia. So she protested against the lack, in her opinion, representative of her district in the U.S. Congress.

That’s what we see in the plate Nate silver: 49,1% of the voters for Hillary Clinton, to 43.2% for Donald trump. Electoral votes, respectively, are distributed as follows: 334 — Clinton 203,8 for trump, 0,1 for libertarian Gary Johnson.

photo: AP

As the love for Putin and women affected the odds of trump

And on these charts cover dynamics — chances of winning (its probability in the upper part of the picture) and the forecast of the vote of voters (lower part):

Graphics very interesting to compare with specific events of the campaign. Of course, we should not overestimate the influence of the “Russian theme” in the rhetoric trump the Americans are more important than things internal, but still – sensational compliments Putin

Trump made on 27 July, talking to reporters in Florida. In the next three days the probability of his victory reached the highest level: he is ahead of Clinton by 0.2%.(Though by the time it almost coincided with the publication of Wikileaks hacked the correspondence of the leadership of the Democratic party, from which it followed that a number of prominent Democrats, declaring in words, neutrality in relation to Sanders Clinton, is actually over Sanders abused).

However, from July 29 to Hillary “off the grid” – right after spoke at the democratic Convention with a keynote speech. On 31 July she “ran” to trump for his support of Putin and accused Russia of organizing hacker attacks on the servers of the democratic party — and the likelihood of her victory continued to rise.

On the eve of 15 August schedule of trump hanging out in the “low points” (impact is provided including an article in the New York Times about his “lack of control” and “folly”) . But the red curve went up immediately after his meeting with voters in Ohio, where trump, among others, hoped to find “common ground” with Russia in the fight against ISIS (banned in Russia – “MK”).

“Curve” Clinton began a sharp decline, and trump — a sharp increase of 11 September, amid Hillary fainting during the ceremony of remembrance of the victims of the terrorist attacks in new York.

The next point of relative convergence charts – end of September. After the first debate, the chances of Clinton crept up again. Then Hillary is gaining momentum.

October 7, The Washington Post has posted an audio recording made “behind the scenes” TV show in 2005, her trump claims that go kissing any ladies that allow it, “the star”, grab yourself for private parts, and tells how he tried to master a certain married woman. The red line, not something that would greatly collapsed, but continued to decline. In the video, revelations of trump in English:

The second round of debates October 9 (remembered by the audience as a fly that sat on Hillary’s face), he added, Clinton has some points.

Except for Nate silver in the US, of course, publish a summary of opinion polls, filtered by different methods. However, these aggregators winner while Clinton out. So, on the website the Huffington Post (42 analyzed the poll) Hillary “gets” to 48.6%, trump is 41.5%.

On the website Realclearpolitics, Clinton is now at 48%, trump and 41.8.

Can Hillary lose because of the steep dirt?

However, the elections are still more than three weeks. The question we addressed to political scientists, given the tensions of the current election campaign, when the dirt on the candidates pours as from a bucket: whether a new hypercompact on Clinton or something else so change the preferences of voters that trump won?

Anton ORLOV, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Institute of modern politics: “Despite the opinion polls, whatever they were, the intrigue in the election of the President of the United States will be kept until the last moment.

Most likely we will see the emergence of zubodrobitelnyh of incriminating evidence against one of the candidates. But if trump is exploiting a certain image of Tomboy, it’s not so bad, although frustrating for Hillary Clinton – almost fatally.

I would venture to suggest that the heavy artillery to join the battle for 5-7 days before the election, its goal is the destruction of the nuclear electorate of the candidate, sending her (not his) in the knockout. Most likely it will be an intimate video recording or publication of documents, which will result in the emergence of feelings of contempt or even disgust the most ardent supporters of Hillary. After all, having experienced one of these feelings, the voter is no longer able to feel respect for the candidate. And sex is the Bane of the clan of the Clintons”.

Yevgeny Minchenko, head of the International Institute of political expertise: “Candidates for US President this time just made a nuclear war: they are stuffing against each other compromising so much ammunition that it would have killed any other politician. But both survived, and we can say that Hilary these lethal blows, not much effect. She was already “tipsy”, and lied under oath, all her uneasy. The establishment that supports it, it is not responding.”

Sergei MIKHEYEV, the General Director of the political conjuncture Center: “the Dirt that will dramatically change the ratio in the presidential race of the United States, of course, possible. But I doubt that the incriminating evidence will come from Russia, which, of course, has interests in the United States. I think: what is known about the candidates we have long known in America. All serious candidates incriminating stuff in there already surfaced.”

Alexei MUKHIN, Director of the Center for political information: “This campaign in the US showed that the American media is extremely censored. Political efforts aimed at blocking one or the other “anticlinorium information” have success. And distributed her information, which is accusing Russia distracts from the content of the debates and documents that enters into the heads of citizens.

This is unfortunate, but it speaks volumes. I don’t think that a new portion of dirt will change the promotion of one of the candidates to the presidency. But the abundance of incriminating data faced by Americans, already dulled their sense of danger. Well, even if it turns out that Hillary Clinton drinks the blood of babies and eats them — no-one will pay attention. The point of the absurd passed, any dirt ceases to be perceived.

Spin doctors are not just overfed the electorate sensations. They have shaken the institution of the presidency. As a result, we after the election will see that whoever wins the credibility of the next President of the United States will be prohibitively low. Candidates so abundantly watered each of the dirt and humiliate each other that destroyed the sacredness of presidential power. The credibility of the Congress will become higher, he will choose for themselves all power, the us becomes a parliamentary Republic, and the President will be a boy or a girl to beat”.


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