13 October at the government meeting in Gorki near Moscow will be approved a new three-year budget. All the main differences between the departments, which last week seemed hard to overcome, the Finance Ministry managed to resolve. For example, for the preparation for the world football Championship-2018 and other such megaprojects military spending every year will be reduced by 6%. While the planned budget deficit of 3.2% will cover the expense of the Reserve Fund, which next year will be completely exhausted.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
About the new budget, which is posted on the website of legal information, Vladimir Putin at the forum “Russia calling!” responded as follows: “this year the government has returned to a three-year planning of the Federal budget. Maybe it’s, frankly, too early for today’s conditions, but a dose of healthy optimism among the present government, and I support it.”
The government managed to balance the budget with a deficit of 3.16 per cent (it insisted on the President – MK), which in principle is an acceptable level, even for developed economies. In 2017, revenues are expected to 13,437 trillion rubles, expenses – 16,181 trillion.
The largest portion will go to funding the social sphere — almost 5.1 trillion rubles. On section “national economy” are planned to spend 2.1 trillion. “National defense” together with open and closed part is nearly 4 trillion.
The deficit the Ministry of Finance to cover the money of the Reserve Fund and national welfare Fund. On October 1 the Reserve Fund was accumulated to 2.04 trillion rubles. Until the end of the year will spend about a trillion. Thus, in the case that the targets of the draft budget in 2017, the Reserve Fund will be almost empty. In 2019, the same fate will befall the national welfare Fund.
However, complete elimination of reserve funds will not. From 2020, the Finance Ministry proposes to introduce a new “budget rule”. It is possible that they start to deduct the excess oil and gas revenues, if the price per barrel of fuel will be higher than the projected $40.
Meanwhile, proposed more to borrow money. In 2017, the Finance Ministry set the threshold for external debt of $7 billion, as it was in the pre-crisis years, and on the inner – 10.35 trillion.
The income gap-the costs from year to year will be gradually reduced. In 2018, the deficit is planned to 1.99 trillion and in 2019 – to 1.14 trillion. Interestingly, this happens both due to increasing income and reducing expenditure.
Officials insist that health and education will not suffer, but the military will cut. The released money will be distributed to civilian programs.
If you look at the project budget closely, then it is possible to find elements of the so-called “austerity”. For example, the government in 2017 are prohibited from increasing the number of Federal civil servants and public institutions. The Corporation will be obliged to return the non-use in the 2016 budget. Reduced funding programs to support agriculture.
“The draft Federal budget for 2017-2019 was formed on the basis of the most conservative estimates, in the long run to curb the growth of the deficit. – considers the first Vice-President of “OPORA Russia” Paul Segal. – For 2017 laid down the price of oil at $40 a barrel. In the calculations for 2018-2019 – $55 per barrel. Build on the positive predictions based on the rising cost of “black gold” – is extremely reckless. The problem should be solved regardless of the situation on foreign markets. However, even if hydrocarbon prices will be much higher, expect a surplus is not necessary. Rather, increased costs for defense, and without unnecessary discussions, in the notification procedure”.