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Monday, October 24, 2016

The choice of the next target for the Syrian army can not be called easy

The main direction of the blows of the Syrian army after taking control of Aleppo will become the province of Deir ez-Zor or raqqa Idlib, said in Damascus. All three objectives are simultaneously very promising and very risky. And while the allies dalyvauti jihadists in Aleppo, it is necessary to analyze each of them.

As specified in the SAR, Idlib hit the list of priorities for home in province of grouping “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra”, and also because of the proximity to the Turkish border. Raqqa – the unofficial capital of ISIS*. What to Deir-ez-Zor is “an important city in the Eastern region, especially given the close location to the areas rich oil fields”. “DAISH (the Arabic name for ISIS – ed. OPINION) benefits from their exploitation and allocates funds for financing and material support of terrorist activities,” said the officer of the Syrian army.

“All three areas has its own distinct positive and negative traits. But the more strange looks the anguish of the Syrian General staff”

ABC, of course, four. Even in the performance of the sources in the Syrian army. Everything is already resigned to hamlet’s anguish of the Syrian General staff that occurs every time he begins “to determine the direction of the main blow”. Now no one doubts the outcome of the battle for Aleppo, therefore, is approaching and another phase of the “to be or not to be”. This time the torment is particularly harsh, since I needed to articulate them through the Russian information Agency (no other reason to say this list of platitudes is not visible). Involved in the Syrian conflict and it should be clear that only these three areas remain as potential targets. In the other provinces of Syria serious resistance no one has, and remaining pockets of jihadists cannot be recorded in the “strategic direction of the main blow”.

But really: Idlib, Deir ez-Zor or raqqa?

A well-known parable of the French philosopher Jean Buridan on silly little donkey that could not choose which of the two haystacks to start the meal, and eventually died of starvation on the nature of free will “fashion” and very relevant in the XIV century the topic. Buridan was a nominalistic and a disciple of Occam, and therefore believed that the problem of free will cannot be solved logically, so that his donkey was doomed to starvation. But the problem of the donkey (in addition to a misunderstanding of stupid animals poorly expressed will of God) was in the fact that both haystacks were symmetrical and identical. If one of them stood closer to him would be decorated with a bow or provided with a sign-pointer, equine would correct, logically reasoned choice that philosophers type Buridan would be issued for the realization of divine Providence. The marketing failed, and the merchandiser did a bad job.

Who is friends with whom and the war in Syria and Iraq From the Syrian General staff determining such symmetry is not. All three choices have their distinct positive and negative traits. But especially strange look in his anguish.

So, the attack on the Deir ez-Zor could start six months ago, but then the “reasonable and informed choice” was made in favor of Aleppo. In addition to the oil fields around this city, the lifting of the blockade of Deir ez-Zor will eventually interrupt supply ISIS and other jihadists in Eastern Syria, putting these groups on the brink of survival. To support the complex logistics of supplying remote and surrounded the garrison would no longer be necessary, and the Russian aircraft will not need to fly to the maximum distance on foot at high altitudes. Also be removed a potential threat to Palmyra. A huge area of the desert to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders and fertile land with gardens along the Euphrates back under the control of the government.

Further blockade of the occupied by terrorists territories – a long story. Jihadists have amassed huge arsenals, and when they run out, will have to invent a homemade or to extort the Western allies long-range mortars and MANPADS. The appearance in Eastern Aleppo American mortars and the shelling of the Russian helicopter somewhat similar to the “stinger” – a symptom of the existence of the “gun behind the scenes.” Sometimes it happens that some successful Prosecutor of some of the new York County (nice man, a Republican with political ambitions) comes his friend from the University Sheikh. And the memories of the life in the campus suddenly said, “you Know my uncle in Riyadh, was fond of falconry, means that the terrorists (no, we condemn them, but he was here recently presented a rare bird) are planning to organize a massacre once in five or ten U.S. cities. Maybe even in schools, but I do not know – it-all uncle. They say people have already left. And not have to worry so much. Just tell me what I’m interested in ten two-inch mortars. One for the city. I personally am only interested in those pipes, but my uncle is the one with the falcons – talk to somebody. You have elections, Yes?” Week for approval, and formally deprecated devices “L9A1” begin to cover the whole of Aleppo from the East to the West. Everyone is happy all – at anything. So playing this game since the days of Yasser Arafat and the “Oslo accords”.

Another thing – raqqa. In Raqqa have once before tried to attack. The only positive thing was political: all the world’s media suddenly began to refer to Raqqa the “capital of ISIS”, since this nickname to the city and it stuck. In the case of LIH have no capital. It just can’t be, considering the very system of religious-political organization of this society. The control is performed remotely, and there are only local authorities, often impersonal and inanimate, which in the majority are headed by former Iraqi officers and personnel of the Egyptian “Muslim brothers”, hiding behind sonorous names formed from geographical names (al-Masri, al-Baghdadi, al-Yamani). Of course, they can be strategic objectives, but to talk about some of the capitals in this case unprofessional. It is customary for European thinking attempts to move on the alien soil of ideas about how society works. But in ISIS it is not. There is even no system of unity of command, neither in religion, nor in the army. Leadership, charisma, mahdism – is, and no unity of command. And no capitals.

Itself, the offensive was poorly organized and about the same sold. Syrian troops did not even come close to the Euphrates, and retreating, almost lost Palmyra. The situation was saved only by the heroic intervention of the Russian troops. And if you came to the Euphrates, on what was going to cross the river? On rafts? In the Syrian army in its current form no engineering as a branch. And shoot Raqqa from the other side, relying on the activity of the Kurds in the North-Eastern flank, is stupid. The Kurds then traditionally showed their unwillingness to go beyond the natural environment, nor what they promise and neither persuade. So in the case of Raqqa potential propaganda gains from the enterprise is not visible behind a pile of difficulties and problems.

Seriously, the attack on Raqqa is possible only after deblokady Deir-ez-Zor. Then we will be in calm environment to transport enough forces and means to the left Bank of the Euphrates and slowly progress through the fertile countryside to the North. And then as we like: to approach, to look to entice some new carrot Kurds, cause Russian brothers on iron birds and resolve the issue, triggering another crisis in the UN security Council, who will condole “civilians”, who likes to live in the slave system. Where, by the way, then to do? In The Euphrates? Moreover, the nurse (the world community) zarugaet.

Idlib – that’s the main problem. It is not only the main place of concentration of the notorious “al-Nusra”, but also the most fortified and well-supplied district. Despite all the ritual poses, which takes in recent months Ankara, the main support for Idlib is still Turkish territory. There are no problems with the food, drink, ammo and money. There are concentrated various opposition groups in Damascus, which, by the way, Damascus is partly provoked. It is in the direction of Idlib stretched column of buses with insurgents from among those who chose to settle on the movement of the boilers, near Damascus, Hama, HOMS, Deraa and even. These people cohabit with each other in Idlib, we should not worry, but there really are many of those who can write in those “moderate” (moderate), if we understand by this term not a religious fanatics, and supporters of secular political parties and groups advocating for change of the political system in Syria conditional on European democracy.

Idlib province, not as a city may well become the new Aleppo because of the high probability that the entire Western world Breasts stand in his defense. In this direction more than in any other area, requires the separation of “pure” from “impure”. And it was there that the U.S. categorically refuse to do it, and in fact – I just can’t. And the inability to influence their clientele – a far greater blow to the credibility and pride of a superpower than the achievements of Russian weapons. Actually, this is the deep root cause of the hysteria of our Western partners, not a specific event of the war.

During the year, government forces slowly but still overcame a massive defense system of the jihadists on two mountain ranges in the provinces of Latakia and Idlib. This was done largely due to the support of the Russian HQs. Now before them lay a solid valley up to the Turkish border. And it is quite difficult to assess what risks (besides politicians) responsible for a possible offensive in the North. Once it is clear that it must be ensured stability of the front in HOMS province. And there are jihadists in the last month, constantly trying to counterattack quite large by local standards forces. There have already deployed mobile and the most capable of the “allies”, for example, the PMC “Tigers”, that is alarming. And from there attempts to break in the direction of Aleppo. Before government troops advancing to the North very slowly even in an open area, and the presence in Idlib large enemy forces especially holding back the urge to frontal attack. The same “Tigers” used the tactics of hit-and-run, rather than trying to break through the front.

The General staff in Damascus, of course, will make their choice, and to tell him no one is going. The more that each of these options acquires on the ground ground of local circumstances, which sometimes outweigh logical thinking. There is no guarantee that in the Damascus have a common opinion about the political priorities which, unfortunately, are repelled by the development of military solutions. Yes, in this war there are no purely military option. Politics – local and international – are just as important as tactical targets on the front. But now the government army can really choose, because after the battle for Aleppo will have sufficient strength to launch any offensive operations. As it will be – I will not undertake to predict one. Jean Buridan such a variety not even dreamed of.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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