The tension in relations between Russia and the West in recent years is increasing literally every day. But, of course, there will be no war – just recall how almost a year ago to escalate the fears around the “very real threat” collision of Russia with Turkey and with NATO. The conflict between Russia and the USA already there, but the main thing in it now is a war of nerves and psychological attacks. Fighting is not going to lead anyone.
October turned out to be what is called hot. Starting with the breaking of the American cooperation on Syria, prodrives withdrawal of Russia from the agreement on plutonium, “Declaration”, listing Putin’s unfriendly actions of the USA against Russia, placing “Iskander” in the Kaliningrad region, and now the cancellation of President’s visit to Paris.
“Today’s escalation of the confrontation between Russia and the West will soon be replaced by “detente in the conflict”
Secretary of state Kerry says war crimes in Syria, American intelligence agencies say the Kremlin’s meddling in American elections, while Russian remains the key one in the fight between Clinton and trump. Yes, and “Normandy format” is still frozen in General, “all bad”. But in fact, as usual, “the fire is going according to plan” – just in the running for the fourth year, the conflict between Russia and the West are occasional exacerbations. One of them we are experiencing now – and, of course, will survive. Moreover, soon it will change the relative “detente” – that is, the discharge in the conflict, but it’s good.
Russia and the West embarked on a path of open geopolitical war in the summer of 2013 – after Snowden, and the failed American attack on Damascus. Everything else, including the Ukraine, Crimea, sanctions, the Russian operation in Syria, was a consequence and development began at the time of the conflict. No return to domodedovskoy (usually say – “dobrynsky”) of the situation can not be out of the question because Russia itself has defied the Atlantic world, and the relative settlement (cold world) can only come after fixing fundamental changes in the rules of the game. It may take five, ten, twenty years – but Russia, China, and the rest of humanity there is no acceptable alternative.
In this confrontation the possible deterioration and weakening – and if every time we them to overreact (to rejoice or be afraid of), it will look like a surprise baby seasons change, testifying not about our sincerity, and the inability to analyze the historical experience, if not banal stupidity. The current aggravation of the conflict related to very specific things – with the deterioration of the American position in the middle East and in Syria, caused by the increasing there of Russia and the coming presidential campaign. Approaching and the election campaign in France and Germany in terms of growth antiatlanticheskih sentiment in these countries also leads to increased pressure on the part of the Atlanticists.
The Syrian crisis is a stone around the neck of American influence in the middle East. After the Russian intervention, States need to solve it as quickly as possible. Because the longer it lasts, the more disappointed in the middle Eastern country. To decide want, of course, avoiding too great concessions to the Russia – moreover, trying to limit opportunities for further growth of Moscow’s influence in the region. It needs not only to agree on the level of Kerry, but to put pressure on the Kremlin, forcing the atmosphere in Russian-American relations in General.
Putin sees it perfectly – and how the United States prevented the Europeans to talk with Russia, and how to behave in the Ukrainian situation. And, accordingly, also puts pressure on the United States – becoming a commonly understood language “declarations” (that is, writing to the proposed Parliament the list of claims to another country – what States do regularly), taking a sharper tone in the statements of the diplomats and the military. On a “psychological war” the only way – you yell, you shout in reply. Well, or ostentatiously asymmetrically respond with action – and in this way we are only beginning to use in the open.
The impact of the us elections on the current aggravation is also clear – although unusually strong. As a rule, the elections have an impact only on the strengthening of anti-Russian rhetoric – but now the intensity of the accusations against Russia are too high, in addition, for the first time in American history in full voice sounds the theme of Russia’s interference in elections. And, most importantly, this time a real chance to win have a non-system candidate, a man not belonging to the establishment, that is out of control.
The danger of a trump is configured to Atlanticist part of the American elite (and it has long been controlled foreign policy) is not in what he says about the possibility to negotiate with Putin – and that he is not bound to adhere to the “only true doctrine” of globalization. Therefore, strengthen the attack on Russia is not only an attempt to overcome the high on the “Syrian front”, but with the desire to put “ally trump” in a bad light. And even more – with a safety net in case of quite probable victory of a billionaire-rebel: to bring relations with Russia to January 20 (when he, if he is elected, will have to take office) to the highest level non-military geopolitical confrontation.
Putin understands this – and games around trump and the situation in Syria and the middle East in General, and fuss around Ukraine, and pressure on Europe. Hence the failure of Hollande from attending the opening ceremony of the Russian spiritual cultural center in Paris (that is, an Orthodox Church built near the Eiffel tower) and caused such a reaction of the Kremlin: don’t want to have a two-way relationship, fear of Washington – well, then do not, we will wait.
A strategic bet Russia to build a multipolar world, in which we will have normal relations, including with Europe, the same – and its approximation goes to all directions and in all dimensions of global politics and Economics. But tactically, we can safely wait for the onset of a new phase in the current confrontation with the West – when today’s attack “a psychological attack” on Russia will be replaced by “detente in the conflict”.
And next year, it will come regardless of who will succeed Obama, Hollande and Merkel on their posts. Even if it will be the presidents Clinton and Juppe, and Chancellor – some staunch Atlanticist, it does not cancel the running processes – the weakening of U.S. influence in global Affairs and undermining the Atlantic unity. Washington, Berlin and Paris, albeit on the basis of different motives, will make efforts to reduce tensions in relations with Russia.
Only it will not be necessary at this point to talk about the end of the confrontation – then, after the start of a new round of growth, not to make a surprised and worried face. Thereby scaring our people – how, so never been, the horror, “Cuban missile crisis” “Berlin crisis”, “world at war”. The Russian has a good memory, calm nature, a sufficient degree of obstinacy in the work – so it is not necessary to interfere with them to strengthen Russia about their business (whether at work or on combat missions in Syria), diverting them with screams of joy, then horror. Russian and so see that the country is in conflict with the West – they are not surprised by this. And do everything to ensure that the conflict remained a “war of nerves” – in which we, of course, will win.