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Friday, March 23, 2018

Due to the Minsk agreements, Ukraine will lose the visa-free regime with the EU

Ukraine may disrupt the meeting in “Norman format”, scheduled for October 19 in Berlin, as Kiev have nothing to play in these negotiations. While Russia, Germany and France are ready to discuss the fate of Donbass “for dinner,” says German Chancellor Angela Merkel. To start Kiev threaten to deprive not yet entered into force visa-free regime with the European Union

photo: instagram.com

In a press-service of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that Kyiv will take part in negotiations only if at the time of their meeting, which adopted the “road map” on implementation of the Minsk agreements. Also there is noted that the discussion of the political agreement is possible only after the issue will be resolved with “security”. In parallel, the head of the Department of policy and communications Ministry of Ukraine Alexei Makeyev said that “dinner” will take place only in the case that Paris and Berlin will force Moscow to implement the Minsk agreements. The official assured that on its part Kiev has done everything possible to end the conflict in the Donbas.

By the way, the foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin in an interview with German TV channel “Deutsche Welle” in response to the question “is dead if the Minsk agreement”, said that Kiev does not intend to implement them until, until Russia withdraws from the Donbass troops. The interviewer reasonably said that under the agreement the withdrawal of troops should take place after the “separatists” will be guaranteed a peaceful life in Ukraine, in particular, changed the Constitution and held elections in Donetsk and Lugansk. But Klimkin said that he’s not interested.

This position is not pleased with France and Germany, which in 2015 have signed a “roadmap” for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Recall they clearly stated that the first in the Donetsk and Lugansk held local elections, and the regions will have a special status enshrined in the Constitution, and then Kiev will take control of its border with Russia. In this regard, the President of France Francois Hollande said that the Council of Europe should put pressure on Kiev to accelerate the implementation of commitments already agreed in the order. As you know, in October of this structure should render its decision regarding the visa-free regime between the EU and Ukraine…

What’s next, “MK” has found out from the experts.

Denis DENISOV, the head of the Ukrainian branch of the CIS Institute:

– After the Donbass began a process of demilitarization of some areas of the frontline, it became clear that to postpone the implementation of the political part of Minsk agreements no longer, as France, Germany and Russia insist that security issues and policies were solved in parallel. Therefore Poroshenko took the position of “weak blackmailer”, saying that would not participate in negotiations if Paris and Berlin will not convince Moscow to withdraw from the Donbass armed forces. But, first, there is no evidence of the presence there of the Russian army, and secondly, it is not Kiev obviously understands all the representatives of the DNI and the LC, including citizens of Ukraine. Naturally, members of the “Normandy format” will never discuss such nonsense.

In turn, the Donetsk and Luhansk are ready to make reasonable compromises for the local elections and constitutional reform. But over the past year and a half, the Ukrainian side is sabotaging any work in the political subgroup in Minsk. Kiev just kept silent, but his representatives said they have no instructions. I hope that on October 19 France, Germany and Russia agree on their road map, but it will concern how in the shortest possible time to persuade Ukraine to implement their obligations. Still, Poroshenko referred to the fact that in Parliament there is a sufficient number of votes in favor necessary changes, but on all the other controversial, but important for the President issues the MPs by hook or by crook can score the required 226 votes. Perhaps after the Council of Europe will chicken heads the entry into force of visa-free regime, the attitude of the ruling elite of Ukraine to the Minsk agreements will change.

Vadim KARASEV, the head of the Ukrainian Institute of global strategies:

– Still Kiev insisted that the elections in Donetsk and Lugansk it will only be after we get control of the border, but following Hollande’s statement it will probably soften its stance, as Ukraine is unprofitable to refuse to participate in the “Normandy format”.

Let’s start with the fact that for the elections Ukraine will continue to require long and full observance of the truce, which is guaranteed not to break after the voting. Yet instead of the three zones of peace on the contact line was able to create only two in Gold and Petrocom. This process needs to be put on stream, because the whole line of contact is 426 km, and such areas need not three, but thirty-three. If the village of the Luhansk people fear that they can capture the militia, it is possible to allay this fear, the observation mission of the OSCE should turn into peacemaking or just more time to strengthen its mandate. Otherwise it is impossible to guarantee that some group of armed men will not take between the case of the liberated towns.

However, the Verkhovna Rada is not able to vote for the political implementation of the Minsk agreements. Perhaps with great effort Poroshenko will find the 226 MPs who will take the law on elections in Donbass, but to strengthen the region’s special status in the Constitution of Ukraine the necessary 300 votes. The Parliament will agree to this only after Kiev will get control of the border with Russia, because then there will be a guarantee that the DNI and the LC in any form will not be legalized. And deputies don’t care what it contradicts the Minsk agreements. Most of them do believe this contract is not valid from the point of view of international law.

If the members of the “Normandy format” will refuse such a compromise, the Minsk process will not be saved.


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