In Kiev has revived the idea of Ukraine’s withdrawal from CIS. The head of the Ukrainian foreign Minister Klimkin, who recently talked about inappropriate departure from the Commonwealth, now calls himself “a consistent supporter of” the idea of going. Environment Poroshenko wants to seize the agenda from the nationalists, calling to introduce visas with the “aggressor”. But the political game can once again hit ordinary Ukrainians.
Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin said that Kyiv is studying the issue of withdrawal from the Commonwealth of independent States. “I am a supporter of withdrawal from the CIS”, – he stressed, noting that “consistent” in this endeavor.
“Interesting maneuver, but rather, it will hit the economy of Ukraine”
“Sequence” Klimkin, however, unconvincing – in April 2015, he said that Ukraine’s withdrawal from the CIS is impractical.
However, now the Ukrainian Minister of foreign Affairs acknowledges that the withdrawal from the Commonwealth for Ukraine will be a challenge. “We have several dozen agreements relating, for example, mutual recognition of diplomas, pension payments. We have completed work that will enable us to settle these agreements,” – said the Minister.
Can’t stay away
Earlier in September, the Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted that the issue of Ukraine’s withdrawal from CIS in the near time will not be considered. “As you remember, Georgia was released at the time, this was the official statement, it was considered, and Georgia way out. Here (we are talking about a possible withdrawal from the CIS), such a procedure is not passed, and I know that soon this issue is not addressed,” – said Ushakov.
Recall, while, in spite of everything, Ukraine continues to participate in the CIS. Although nervous and inconsistent attempts to get away had already taken place. So, shortly after the coup, in March 2014, Ukraine suspended the chairmanship in the Commonwealth. However, in October of the same year in Kiev, said that he changed his mind to leave the CIS. Klimkin then explained the “unreasonableness” exit the fact that Kiev participates in the activities of the CIS, when he “needed to achieve something”.
In the summer of 2015 Ukraine announced its withdrawal from the system of tracing criminals and exchange of information about them in the CIS. However, in late September, the head of the CIS Executive Committee Sergei Lebedev said that Ukraine has expressed a desire to continue working in the CIS.
A year later at the Commonwealth summit, the Ambassador of Ukraine in the CIS Nikolai Doroshenko said that Kiev does not accept the transfer of the chairmanship in the CIS in 2017 Russia for “annexation” of Crimea. What is present at the meeting, President Vladimir Putin said: Ukraine has not signed or ratified the Charter of the Commonwealth and hardly can make suggestions on his work. Moreover, the reunification of the Crimea with Russia was in full compliance with international law and the UN Charter.
Meanwhile, as reported by the media in mid-March, Ukraine, so not officially withdrawn from the CIS, already owe the organization of 84.3 million rubles for support of the work of Executive bodies in 2014, this state of Affairs the country could be forcibly excluded from the Commonwealth.
“Go to Russia, don’t bother coming back”
The benefits of Ukraine’s membership in the CIS was obvious, at least until recently. From 2012 till January 2016 Ukraine enters a free trade zone (FTZ) of the Commonwealth. Moreover, Kiev along with Moscow and Minsk, was one of the founders of the FTA, establishing preferential conditions for the import of raw materials and export of finished products. But in early 2016, Russia was forced to suspend (and temporarily) the agreement on FTA with Ukraine, in response not so much to European integration, but on the accession of Kiev to the European sanctions against Russia.
The rupture of relations with Russia has already made itself felt. According to Ukrainian experts, in 2014 the volume only Ukrainian agricultural exports to Russia declined from almost 30% to 2%, and the total import from Russia in 2015 decreased from 19.9% to 10.1%.
The withdrawal from the CIS, which is linked to the introduction of a visa regime with Russia, is also unlikely to benefit Ukraine. Citizens of Commonwealth countries, including Ukraine, arriving in Russia on foreign passports, are not required to announce their arrival to the migration service and the police if they stayed in Russia not more than 90 consecutive days. Now, according to official data of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Ukraine, in Russia is 3 million Ukrainian citizens.
However, the level of consciousness and concern in the Ukrainian Parliament of the “workers”, bringing revenue to the state budget, commenting the recent statement of the Deputy from “Blok Petro Poroshenko” Vladimir Parasyuk. “I look at things realistically and I want to say, we always ask their opinion due to the fact that “they are working there, in Russia”. They prohibit someone to go there? Yes ride can do with things. And not return,” said the legislator, who was quoted by the TV channel 112 Ukraine.
Preconceived political line against their own interests
“In the CIS has accumulated a large number of existing agreements relating to different aspects of life, and linking that support livelihoods in a number of industries. It is not only agreement with Russia, with which Ukraine is now breaking links, but with all the other CIS States. And the answer may mean the end of these documents,” – said in an interview with the newspaper VIEW political scientist, Director of the Institute of CIS countries Konstantin Zatulin.
Georgia, which withdrew from the CIS, informally asked to keep fifty agreements that continue to be used by the Georgian side in its order, said the expert. “In all likelihood, Ukraine appreciates this fact,” – said Zatulin.
The interviewee explained that the Ukrainian authorities, having “logical” plans, tear ties with Russia, but they can’t afford to abandon the other agreements, which will lead to damages to Ukraine.
“Withdrawal from the CIS means a serious deterioration in the current socio-economic practices and, of course, will be accompanied by problems for Ukraine. Is Ukraine going to go based on the fact that her new contacts, connections, orientation to the West will allow it to compensate for the gap with the CIS. The question is problematic”, – said Zatulin.
“However, some of the steps Ukraine is taking, I do not exclude that it may withdraw from the CIS”, – said Zatulin. In his opinion, “it is impossible to exclude anything when it comes to this preconception of the political line contrary to the interests of its own citizens demonstrating their ideological aversion and the desire to break with the Soviet, Russian and other past.” “If they go for it, why not go for withdrawal from the CIS?” the expert stressed.
“The attempt to disavow the decision on visas”
The analyst, President of center of strategic communications Dmitry Abzalov skeptical about the prospect of Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth. “Withdrawal from the CIS Ukraine, the most unprofitable, and it is unlikely that she will be able to do it”, – said Abzalov in comments the newspaper VIEW.
The interviewee acknowledged that Ukraine in the last few years conducting a “serious move” – at the last event it was presented the status of the head of state. “This maneuver is interesting, but rather, it will hit the economy of Ukraine, because, first of all, will complicate the procedure of interaction of work with Moscow”, – said the analyst. He also recalled that in the framework of the CIS for Ukraine are important agreements, including an economic plan, for example, on the special preferences in trade.
And built within the framework of the CIS, these relations not only with Russia but also with other countries, together with which Ukraine is interested, for example, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan. So “this is a fairly serious risks,” said the expert. According to him, statements about withdrawal from the CIS “Klimkin trying to disavow the decision on introduction of visa regime, which Ukraine has failed to implement as the symmetric answer”.
However, Ukraine may lose its membership in the CIS, nothing concrete taking, if we just continue to stick to their line. However, the answer who will be the losers, clear. “If it (Ukraine) as it is now, will not perform part of the agreements, in the long run she may finally leave the organization, and this is seriously hamper its access to the country’s post-Soviet space”, – concluded the expert.
Co-founder with the strange status
“Withdrawal from the CIS means a serious deterioration of Ukraine”
Ukraine, whose first President Leonid Kravchuk was one of the participants of the Belovezhskaya agreements thus signed the agreement on creation of the CIS of 8 December 1991. Two days later – December 10, 1991 – Kiev ratified the constitutive documents of the CIS. At the same time Ukraine has not ratified the Charter of the Commonwealth, in contrast to Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, whose parliaments have done this procedure in 1993-1994.
In 1993, Ukraine has made a Declaration of intention to join the economic Union of the CIS countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), but as an associate member.
The CIS economic court, which in March 1994 rendered a decision “On the request for interpretation on the application of the provisions of agreements and other acts of the Commonwealth”, admitted de jure Ukraine is not a full member of the CIS. The status of Ukraine as a state co-founder and member of the Commonwealth was not disputed. Moreover, Ukraine has held the chairmanship in the CIS in particular, from January to March 2014 (thus, the term of office expired after the “victory of the Maidan”).
From Maidan to Maidan
The first statement about the “futility” of the CIS to Ukraine was in 2005, after the “first Maidan”, which brought to power Viktor Yushchenko. In March 2005 the then Deputy Secretary of Ukraine Markiyan Lubkivsky said that he believes the CIS is futile organization. He also noted that Ukrainian experts are working on the issue of reorganization of the CIS. In April of that year, the economy Minister in the government of Yulia Tymoshenko Serhiy Teryokhin announced that Kiev is planning to consider the feasibility of financing the Commonwealth.
Finally, in may 2005, the head of the main service of external policies of the Secretariat of the President of Ukraine Konstantin Timoshenko said Ukraine is considering the option of withdrawal from the CIS. A little later it was stated that Ukraine will not sign the documents related to collective defence in the framework of the CIS, as Kiev more interested in cooperation with NATO.
Next – however, weaker – “aggravation” discussions about the release occurred in August 2008. Shortly after the five-day conflict in South Ossetia in the Verkhovna Rada introduced a draft law “On denunciation of the Agreement on creation of the CIS” deputies from the then ruling bloc of Viktor Yushchenko “Our Ukraine – national self-defence”. Apparently, in Kiev tried to answer the call of the then President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili to the state of the Commonwealth out of the Union. However, the bill then the course is not given.
In the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych to the idea of denunciation of agreements on the CIS for obvious reasons did not return. The first person after the next Maidan talking about leaving the Commonwealth, was Andriy Parubiy, at the time newly appointed Secretary of the national security Council and defence of Ukraine (NSDC), now speaker of the Verkhovna Rada.
19 Mar 2014 Parubiy announced: the Council has adopted a decision to start the procedure of withdrawal of the Ukrainian state from the CIS. Following this paruby announced the introduction of a visa regime with Russia, has allegedly instructed the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Moreover, the head of the national security Council stressed that the foreign Ministry “in the coming hours” should make the decision on the admission of Russians to Ukraine only on foreign passports. It is easy to see that both decisions – to withdraw from CIS visa regime – were safely buried, and the entry of foreign passports was introduced only a year – from February 2015.