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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The ruble became a target for currency speculators

Oil is everything. Hammered phrase. But only at first glance. Cost energy Ministers of OPEC member countries to declare on 28 September about the possibility of a small limit oil production, as oil prices went up. Not fast, but still 8-9 October for Brent gave up $51,69 per barrel. As a result, the ruble began to grow, however, not firmly enough (from time to time he passes ago). It came to the point that even a foreign currency speculators for the first time since 2009 began to put on the strengthening of the Russian currency.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Commission futures trading USA (CFTC) released data according to which the ruble on us exchanges, feeling more than confident.

What happened? You can, of course, chided for overseas pseudopanthera who charged high interest rates to bring down and reset the ruble through the floor.

But first, go to the dry statistics. January 22 this year, the Central Bank has set the official exchange rate in 83,59 rubles per dollar. In January 2016, on average, for green gave more than 77 rubles. The oil was too weak in price. So, 19 January Brent was trading at $of 28.22 per barrel. On average, the January schedule is not out for $37. The numbers, predicted disaster for the commodity economy.

But in March, oil again, albeit cautiously, began to rise in price. As a result, the ruble jumped as much as 11%. He then fell in July by 4.5%. However, the result for 10 months, there is a course “wooden” to “green” has appreciated on average by 15%. 8-10 October, the official exchange rate is set at 62.3 rubles per dollar. That is the highest position of the national currency this year.

Thus, foreign speculators are not only following some far-reaching calculation, but simply consider the fact that in 2016, “wood” played the bucks immediately 10.63 ruble.

So here is to increase the ruble. But how extensive is it?

After all, even on the eve of elections to the state Duma, many experts warned that by the end of the year, the ruble having lost much support of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will collapse, if not before the January indicators, then close them. Moreover, the draft Main directions of budget policy for 2017-2019, prepared by the Ministry of Finance projected: the ruble will weaken compared to current levels. The Agency establishes for 2017 the average rate of the dollar to 67.5 rubles., and by 2019 — has a 71.1 RUB.

Strong ruble is not profitable to the Treasury. On the strengthening of the national currency in 2016, the Federal budget has already lost 990 billion rubles, follows from the data of the Federal Treasury.

Of course, to drive the ruble into the corner of a great mind is not necessary. It is sufficient to endorse the proposals of the Ministry of Finance at least on the governmental level. He will go down. Verbal intervention — they are sometimes extremely effective. But is it necessary to the Russian economy and Federal budget?

Businesses and households need stable national currency. And the latest indicators because all are encouraging. Why destroy it?

The more that the alleged meeting of a number of Ministers of oil of OPEC and Russia on the sidelines of the international energy forum in Istanbul, which at the highest level will begin October 10, can lead to further agreements on limiting the production of raw materials and so to raise his prices.


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