The current geopolitical situation in the center of Aleppo in America compared to the Caribbean crisis. In the media over and over again appear expert assessment, according to which the Russian group in Syria will be destroyed by American troops in two days. But all this pseudo-scientific fiction. The war between Russia and the United States will not, and in Syria, Assad will win.
Initially, Washington had announced it was breaking off contacts with Russia on Syria. Then followed first a clarification – not all contacts, but only bilateral. Experts, interpreters and related already objavljena in Geneva (as in the days of endless negotiations about reducing strategic nuclear weapons since Gromyko), began sullenly to pack your bags. Then came a second clarification: the negotiations will continue within the framework of multilateral groups and commissions. Many in Vienna and new York breathed a sigh of relief. On the ground nothing has changed, the battle for Aleppo continued, CNN has launched a show about Syrian girls with pigtails.
“Critical loss incurred by Americans, can be justified only in speedy victory. Aleppo should turn in Austerlitz, but it was more of Borodino”
Washington third clarification: the negotiations are not terminated, but suspended. It was quickly eclipsed by the cries about the danger of the deployment of Russian anti-aircraft systems in Syria. Finally, Secretary Kerry just called Lavrov again to discuss the situation, and this is very similar to those “bilateral contacts”, which seems to have been “broken”. The circle is closed, place girls with pigtails on CNN took some “secret library in deraye” (not to be confused with Deraa), which destroyed the evil asadisty, which is also a crime against humanity for which you need to personally punish Bashar al-Assad.
The American side insists on the similarity of the current situation with the Caribbean crisis of 1962 that caused panic assess the situation of the “Americans are able to destroy entire Russian group in Syria.” Russian military experts who publish such scenarios are, apparently, come from the comparison of the total potential but not the real situation in the middle East. The scenario of a massive US attack Russian troops in Syria (and successful) is close to Hollywood, but not to reality. Nevertheless, some threats still visible.
The Pentagon’s senior generals over the last 25 years, accustomed to consider Russia as something of a Serbia, only a little more and Dostoevsky. In the end, both Cyrillic and the Imperial tradition. These same generals are accustomed to limited technological military operations against poor opponent. The Russian group in Syria even with all its air defense is viewed in isolation from absenteeism confrontation. Do: if you run at Imamia and Tartus all have the US cruise missiles, but to raise all the strategic bombers, there’s not a stone will remain. In addition, apparently, there are people who believe that Russia will swallow all of this, the Third world still will not, and the new US President will enter the White house, the Emperor of the planet – and “An-Nusra” in Damascus, but without Assad, what is more important.
But in reality, the United States did not break contact with the Russian military mission in order to avoid air incidents. And most of the aggressive rhetoric of the predefined pre-election situation and has nothing to do with the situation on the ground.
At the same time, developments on the Syrian fronts can accelerate the situation to a dangerous limit, and it is already accelerated to impressive speeds. And to understand what is happening, you need to look again at the front line in Aleppo.
Government troops over the past two days has successfully occupied the quarter Bustan al-Basra, and jihadist group “Fatah Aleppo” (a hodgepodge of local gangs the radical wing) is not receding, and practically runs from the North-Eastern parts of the city. She is now on the verge of defeat and its leaders are already hard to keep control on the front line.
Furthermore, this attack provides strong control of the Northern entrance to Aleppo. Seeing this, the Kurds, who were sitting in the deep “ambush” in the neighborhood of Sheikh Maksoud (geographically very large because of a one-storey building), and fruit have gone beyond their “natural habitat”, they are usually unusual, supporting a government offensive on the Eastern neighborhoods. So began the offensive from the area of the youth (aka pioneer) camps and quarries Baqarah deep into jihadist-controlled areas.
Taking the Bustan al-Basra and Uvagu, government troops and the allies begin an offensive in the quarter of ain al-tal, who is already exposed to the Kurds. This is the point of no return. And, despite the fact that, formally, the jihadists remain in control of the territory, which looks impressive on the map, further resistance is useless. It is noteworthy that the group of “Jaish al-Fatah”, based on Idlib, instead of trying to break through to the surrounded the brothers in mind in Aleppo, launched a series of attacks in the Northern part of the province of Hama to save his own front, which the third day was plagued by hungry Tigers, supported by tanks.
At the same time, government forces went on the offensive where they were not expecting: under the Deir ez-Zor. Just at the place where a couple of weeks ago, American and allied aircraft “accidentally” bombed their positions. The 71st regiment and 137-I, a mechanized artillery brigade took the so-called 1st post from Jabal Taneja, developing the offensive from the hill of Krum and PPC “Panorama”. The next goal – 2nd post. And then all the South-Western outskirts of Deir ez-Zor will be released that will create a fundamentally new strategic environment in the region.
If you do not intervene some foreign power (the Martians, for example), fate is surrounded in the East area of Aleppo jihadists solved. And this will be resolved and the outcome of the civil war in favor of the government of Bashar al-Assad. Consequently, all long-term U.S. policy in Syria goes to the gutter. As the time for elections.
Militarily to rescue the encircled in Eastern Aleppo group, the front in the province of Hama and Deir ez-Zor can only be a full-fledged invasion. The strength of the government troops is limited, resources are worn out (although recently regularly replenished). To stop them is unexpected bombardment or the landing of troops by two to three teams (in the American sense of the word). This is the only way to save the reputation of the US, there is no propaganda tricks (girl, pigtails, libraries) will not help. Propaganda will be forgotten in time, and the Bashar al-Assad will remain.
However, the landing of American troops (which, by the way, “at hand” or not) will require their full inclusion in melee combat, which they traditionally do not like and can not. In any state was the Syrian government army, she still has potential. Fair talk about corruption in the army, about the poor supply and weak command, but all this applies mainly to the so-called old number of military units which fight for five years and sometimes only exist nominally (that is part of the combat schedule five years ago there, but in fact this part does not exist anymore). Now the basic combat load, these are not, in fact, the ground war part, and a new one formed on a different principle: the Republican guard (angry volunteers from among the victims of the jihadists and “moderate”) and religious-ethnic divisions. Their psychological state is impressive, they are able to resist anyone.
The critical losses incurred by the Americans, can be justified only basic and quick victory. Aleppo should turn in Austerlitz, but it was more of Borodino. Even if we imagine sverhtermicheskoy story with the landing of two airborne division somewhere in the area of air force base Kuveyris (the other option the US has no), the operation on the ground will take about two weeks, even if will be developed with total silence from the Russian side. In the first five days of losses will exceed the politically acceptable. And then what? To oust the Syrian government troops to their previous positions in East Aleppo? What’s the point?
First, the first shot on Syrian positions someone the American war will cease to be civil. A couple of years ago Washington swore and swore that under no circumstances would not attack the positions of government troops, but the incident near Deir ez-Zor naturally annulled the vows. For domestic consumption and the UN will play the humanitarian card: heroic U.S. marine (preferably African American originally from the troubled cities in the southern States), he defended the notorious Syrian girl with pigtails, and even, perhaps, dug up the library. But from a military point of view on earth, the chaos begins. Directly attacking Syrian government troops for the US – ideological loss of pace. One may insist that Russia is not fighting ISIS, and support Assad, but then why are you yourself not in raqqa landed? And why so many years in Mosul stand, entrusting this front is unstable to the Iraqis and the Kurds, are inclined to talk shop, but not war?
“There are people who believe that Russia will swallow all of this, the Third world still will not, and the new US President will enter the White house, the Emperor of the planet”
Second, such interference will never be approved is not something that the UN, but even Wade, even if their daily stuff with stories about the mythical “hospitals,” supposedly “bombed” the Syrians and the Russians. Don’t need a new Snowden to understand that in Eastern Aleppo no hospitals that someone deliberately bombed. The United States was trapped in its own strategy of ideological and propaganda support of military operations. They are not able to invent or create from scratch a sufficient excuse like “tail which wags the dog”. The trick with chemical weapons twice already didn’t work, and nuclear and bacteriological in the conflict zone simply no. And the glory of God.
Thirdly, one will not be silent. In Soviet times we were taught that 70% of troops killed during the landing, before reaching the earth, and it was at a different level of technology development. In the presence in Syria of Russian air defense American troops impossible as a phenomenon. As, however, and attempt a massive bombardment of the positions of the government army. This is a purely psychological moment. Will Russian air defense preemptively to shoot down American planes landing if they are advancing on Aleppo? Probably will not be. But to deploy them in the air forces fighter aircraft can not shooting, just not to miss the landing area, to divert. And all – operation ended before it began. To avoid this, our American partners, blocking or destroying the Russian air force. To block they are not able, and to destroy – means to declare war on the largest nuclear power, that is, to start the self-destruct mechanism. Some American political leaders and generals, of course, make a strange impression, but the instinct of self-preservation refers to the base, he’s in the subcortical brain inherent. Against him it is difficult to go, especially since such decisions are made not by one person, and at least three (bureaucratic mechanism is so arranged specially). We assume that the three adults, educated, experienced family men at the same time deny the self-preservation mechanism for short-term political gain, with unclear consequences, is extremely difficult.
Against this version is the infamous “Serbian syndrome” American generals who believed that the local operation against Russia or even against a remote Russian group will not entail the “otvetku.” The dominance in the state Department and around people from the marine corps too alarming (their influence now surpasses all precedents in U.S. history, including the first years after the Civil war). The speaker of the state Department John Kirby even front-line hairstyle does not change, and the special representative of the marine Corps at the state Department employs a former employee of the Embassy in Moscow, famous for writing the fundamental work on the organization of mortar and artillery support amphibious operations on the experiences of Afghanistan (diplomatic career in Moscow had not worked after a couple of failed recruitments).
But Syria for the United States – the same “remote theater of military operations”, as well as for Russia. Moscow made this year my best not to get involved in ground battles (sometimes this led to delays in offensive operations of the government troops, not too skilfully conducted them). But it did not become “a second Afghanistan”, as predicted liberal person, but can become a “second Vietnam” for the United States. If Turkish bases type of Incirlik nothing happens, Turkey certainly shumoizolyatsiya, but for Qatar and Bahrain no one to answer. And already there were rumors about the negotiations in Moscow between the Minister of defense of Saudi Arabia and representatives of Iran, which in itself is not strange, but the mindset it describes.
The American side had nothing to do with the relocation of the airport of Kosovo the Russian part of Bosnia (that is, if return to the “Serbian syndrome”) and took her down. And imagine a full-fledged military operation against Russian troops in Syria to clear the way to Aleppo and further to overthrow Assad, it is impossible. But to consider all these scenarios is necessary. Not from the perspective of “Americans are the strongest, they bombed us,” and appreciating the whole context. He is not in favor of attempts at large-scale outside interference in the civil war in Syria on its actual decline. Everything is over, forget it.
* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”