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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Now is the time to buy foreign currency: experts-pessimists promise the collapse of the ruble

The experts threatened us with collapse of the ruble after the election, however, the “wood” is good. How to calculate the optimal time when those who have extra money, you have to go to currency exchange offices to buy foreign currency? Try to understand.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

It is hoped that it will increase oil prices — now a barrel jumped $51. Perhaps next year the “wood” and will not fall below 65 rubles to the dollar.

But there are negative forecasts. According to Bank of America in 2017, the barrel drops to $25 and our currency will collapse from the current 62 to 90 rubles per dollar. This is not the limit. German experts say that a minimum threshold of 95 rubles banknote with a portrait of George Washington is not far off.

According to VTSIOM, the ruble remains the main currency for savings. Savings in rubles keep 58% of Russian citizens. Dollar, Euro and other currencies choose a few: 5%, 3% and 1% of the population respectively. However, 36% of our fellow citizens in General have no savings.

Moreover, many Russians, in principle, no desire to watch the fluctuation in exchange rates: from January to September the share of those who follow the situation on the currency market, decreased from 63% to 42%. And the least interest in the beginning to show the younger generation: more than half of 18-24 year old citizens. It should be noted, are residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg

According to the Deputy Director of the analytical Department at Alpari Anna Kokoreva, “today is the time to buy us dollars is very attractive. The ruble strengthened against the background of rising oil prices. However, the government will not allow its progressive strengthening. Today you can buy foreign currency for short-term speculation. If you want to translate savings in currency, you may want to wait until November.”

Based on the opinion of a specialist, we can assume that the ruble will retain their positions until the end of October and even strengthen them in the beginning of the last autumn month. But then for those who hold the money in the egg capsules, the time will come to think.

Meanwhile in the financial market there was a shortage of dollars. Talking about this foreign players in the domestic market. With this view agrees and representatives of Russian financial institutions.

According to unofficial information, Russian banks find the easiest tool to profit is buying currency. In this version it is possible to believe, given that, first, decreased foreign currency deposits of private individuals, and secondly, the Central Bank can’t meet demand for currency from the banks at its auctions. Only on 3 October, the regulator has sold nearly $1 billion less than what was demanded by the buyers.

The shortage of currency in banks is not artificial. Where did she come from, when access to cheap dollars and euros closed due to sanctions. Today, Russian banks are reluctant to lend in the currency and are reluctant to open Deposit accounts in foreign currency.

It is hoped the population. Now the Russians are almost 4 trillion rubles in cash. Many prefer, as always, to hope for a “pillow” and not on the interest in the Ghost Bank in words that guarantee profitability. According to the chief editor of “Financial newspaper” Nicholas Warble, now again it is the case that all-to shift savings into foreign currency.

But, of course, a huge income should not count. This position is shaky. If in the hands of two or three thousand dollars, then throw in the maelstrom makes no sense. And can and store it under your pillow?


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