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Friday, October 21, 2016

The analyst drew the best and worst scenario for Russia in Syria

The Syrian crisis intensifies almost by the hour. The defense Ministry confirmed the information about sending the middle Eastern theatre of military action batteries of s-300. Washington is represented by Secretary of state John Kerry hit with a new attack on Moscow, stating that she and Damascus “abandoned diplomacy.” Of how to look at the worst and best for Russia scenarios of future developments, we asked the head of the Council on foreign and defense policy Fyodor Lukyanov.

photo: kremlin.ru

– Fyodor, whether Russia has a chance to win a Syrian party? And might look like this victory is in perfect, so to speak?

– Perfect, we have already passed. Ideal would be if we could attempt a peaceful settlement undertaken twice, in the beginning of the year, in February, and most recently, and would create a joint Russian-American mechanism. First, to control the intensity of the fighting, and secondly the process of political settlement.

The second ideal option is a quick or relatively quick military victory of Assad. Not complete – it is hardly possible. We are talking primarily about the capture of Aleppo and the termination of there current grinder. Then there is a new configuration, a new arrangement of forces, a more sustainable balance. And there will be a chance for the resumption of the political process. To the extent possible – an open question. While there is a feeling that there will be a sharp intensification of the fighting, but without the desired result. Then there will be a lot of effort, many sacrifices and unwavering position. And the longer it will last, the worse. Russia’s extremely dangerous to be stuck there for a long time and to be dependent on successes or rather failures of Assad’s army. The more that leave no doubt that in this new situation, the United States will go all out to support Assad’s opponents, including weapons.

– Well, what can we expect in the worst case?

– Worst case – an unintended, unplanned Russian-American incident. In the region there are two major air force – near, but absolutely uncoordinated. An example of such a incident we saw a year ago. Turkey, of course, is not America, but there was a high risk of further escalation. Thank God, she escaped. Here the risk is more, the consequences can be much more ambitious. I think that the parties will try to avoid it, make every effort to ensure that this will not happen. In this case the situation will develop in the spirit of the cold war. Will be what is called a proxy war, when on the ground fighting forces, each of which are of a great power.

Read the story “the Experts evaluated the possibility of direct clashes between Russia and the United States in Syria”


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