Assistant Secretary of state Victoria Nuland arrives today in Moscow to 5 October for the last time to hold talks on the Donbas with Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov. Most likely, after the November 8, America’s new President will disband the team of his predecessor.
Nuland meeting with representatives of the Russian side will probably be devoted to another failure to demilitarize the front line in the Donbas and the results of the primaries, which held the self-proclaimed Republic.
Recall, October 3, DNI, LC and Kiev accused each other of violating the Treaty on the complete divorce of troops near settlements Petrovsky and the Village Lugansk, signed last week. In the first case, security forces and militias demand from the OSCE to recognize that the enemy is shooting at them, but promised to observe the truce, so they have the right to return to their positions and even to fight back. The second administration of the Village Lugansk doesn’t want the Ukrainian army left the town, so afraid that they will be replaced by militia.
And on 2 October the DNI and the LC held primaries before the election of mayors of Donetsk and Lugansk. OSCE observers did not participate in the trial vote, and in the Kremlin they did not comment. But Kiev says the militias have threatened to hold another unrecognized elections that once again proves their indifference to the Minsk process…
The head of the Ukrainian branch of the Institute of CIS countries Denis Denisov in conversation with the correspondent “MK” suggested that the dialogue between Nuland and Surkov will be built in the following way: “Surkov tells Nuland about how Ukrainian troops fired on the militia and obstructed the work of observers of OSCE. In addition, they will discuss the holding of local elections in the Donbass. Thanks to the primaries Donetsk and Lugansk have shown the international community’s willingness to choose their leaders in accordance with all international standards. Now Kiev needs to agree with the electoral law and changes to the Constitution that will bring us closer to the end of the conflict in the East of Ukraine. Surkov, I think, be discussed with Nuland, how best to put pressure on the Ukrainian government who were not slow in taking such important decisions.”
The opposite opinion with “MK” said analyst Andrew Buzarov: “first, Nuland is finalizing his last days in the administration of the President of the United States, so she is unlikely to insist on the adoption of some important decisions on the Donbass. Second, after the previous meetings, the situation remained the same as two years ago.
Some progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements is possible only after the presidential elections in the United States, when the situation in the Donbass decides to drop a new occupant of the White house. No matter it is Donald trump or Hillary Clinton – in any case, the new leader of America will try to end the conflict in the Donbass, as a matter of fact, only Washington can do it. But it will be at least six months since the inauguration of the new American President, as long as Moscow insists that Kiev fulfill the Minsk agreements independently, not jointly with Donetsk and Lugansk, as insisted by the United States.”