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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The exchange rate is undervalued


Disputes on that, will collapse if the price of the domestic currency by year-end, are becoming increasingly hot. Yesterday the dollar fell almost on the ruble.


photo: Natalia Muslinkina

Officials do not get tired to calm the Russians. In early October, the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said, no disaster will not be in Russia, even if oil prices fall to $25 per barrel. However, this is the most risky scenario. In the base case of the Central Bank comes from $40 per barrel. “There is an optimistic scenario of $55,” said Nabiullina, speaking at a seminar for the deputies of “United Russia”. According to her, two years have been changes that have made our economy more resilient to external risks, and the external debt of Russia decreased by 30%.

This, many agree. For example, the rector of the Russian presidential Academy of national economy and public administration under the President Vladimir Mau emphasizes that the system of the domestic economy has long been not raw: in Russia there is no “rent-seeking economy and the Dutch disease (perioralna of the national currency, causing exports to fall and import growth, and, consequently, increase inflation and unemployment. — Ed.)”, and the budget deficit is under tight control of the government and the Central Bank.

In fact, our country stands on the threshold of major structural reforms, where the issue of GDP growth goes to the second place. On the highest point of the podium out the quality of growth. In order to improve the standard of living of the population and further develop the business need to reduce administrative and regulatory burden on entrepreneurs.

So what the growth rate will be most beneficial for Russia? Slightly higher than in Germany but lower than in China, says Vladimir Mau. Excessive whipping of the economy by, for example, excessive issue of banknotes will lead to the financial failure that occurred in 1990-e years when the ruble was falling in his eyes.

After the current elections to the state Duma, some experts believed that the “wood” to the end of the year will weaken to the maximum values. They were convinced that before his course had been artificially maintained by the government and the Central Bank. However, Sergey Drobyshevsky believes that “nothing like this”. In the last two years, the Russian currency experienced excessive drop. A sharp drop in the outflow of capital and surplus between exports and imports gives hope that the ruble has all chances to strengthen, not fall. So 70 rubles per dollar, he does not believe, though, believes the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov.

Not by chance, and Vladimir Mau and Sergei Drobyshevsky, the General report presented on the presentation “monitoring of the economic situation in Russia”, decided to focus on two scenarios: basic and favorable. Most importantly, both scenarios imply a resumption of GDP growth in our country in 2017. Although not very big — no more than 2%. (See table.)

source

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