Our country in recent years, according to officials, is trying to get off the “raw needle” and redirect the economy in a more competitive direction. It turns out with variable success. Some industries grow, some, on the contrary, fail. However, there are forecasts according to which we are forced to have to abandon the production of hydrocarbons, because they are elementary to end. Evaluation of German Gref, raw material we only be enough to 2028-2032 years. Experts do not agree with this statement and consider such a conclusion premature.
Your pessimistic assumptions Gref does with some reservation. “Not the fact that I’m right,” he says. Moreover, it makes specific predictions that will benefit our country or lose. “A departure from the model manresources economic status may have been significantly affect Russia, but it may be the impetus to improve the quality of economic growth”, — says ex-Minister of economic development.
How can you believe the Gref is not clear. Domestic officials of the highest rank extremely evasive about talking about the resource base of our country and the possible period of its exhaustion. So, in mid-March, the Minister of natural resources Sergey Donskoy noted that the oil in our country will end in about 2044. This is much longer than Gref. However, don also puts the point in this matter, saying that the decline of traditional reserves will begin in 2020 year. However, in comparison with Gref the Minister of natural resources bursting with optimism. He adds that the recoverable reserves of the country (not just traditional) will be exhausted after almost 60 years.
So, scare us representatives of the state or really pushing on the economic exploits that allows you to not be dependent on the notorious raw materials.
Start with the statistics. By the end of 2015 oil production in Russia amounted to 533 million tons, gas — 635 billion cubic meters. At the same time, the fuel reserves in our country are estimated 12.74 billion tonnes (8th largest in the world), gas — at 46.7 trillion cubic meters (first place).
Simple division suggests that if current oil production is enough for us for 23-24 years (up to year 2039-2040), gas — by 73 years (almost to 2090). At least with respect to gas like there is no reason to worry. However, regarding oil, which continues to be donor of the budget, things are much worse. Have hopes for proven oil reserves in the Russian Arctic, which constitute 7.7 billion and will be able to extend stable production in our country additionally a couple of years at 14 (in other words, to 2053-2054 years).
But experts say that all these arguments in favor of the poor. We must not forget that the consumption of hydrocarbons in the future will certainly grow. But will grow and the number of explored fields, and also appear technology to extract greater efficiency from manufactured materials. Therefore, to calculate when deposits of Russia, and worldwide, to dwindle — all the same what to read tea leaves.
“Let us remember the special literature of the 1980-ies. If you believe her, now we don’t have to stay any one barrel or one thousand cubic meters. So, to jump to conclusions, especially since the forecasts in this perspective, it is not correct”, — says Director of the energy development Fund Sergey Pikin.