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Sunday, December 4, 2016

A waiting game: when will decrease housing prices


With the beginning of a new business season of the Metropolitan housing market revived, “squares” slowly began to rise. However, the autumn rise in prices can turn into a winter stagnation, analysts say.


photo: Gennady Cherkasov

The latest trends

Last summer at the capital’s construction market experts have noticed a number of interesting trends. First, developers have forgotten about the holiday season and dramatically increased the pace at work. In June–August, started on 12 new projects, increased new housing in already implemented systems. The volume of new supply amounted to of 307.9 sq m, which is 85.8 per cent more than in the summer of 2015.

Still the leader in terms of the new volume remains the comfort class: its share in the total volume of new supply has increased from 52.8% to 68.3% amid a decline in the shares of the other segments, primarily the business class — from 37.4% to 23.9%. Thus at the end of summer 2016, the share of apartments in the overall structure of the sentences was 22%.

In the segment of mass housing prefabricated houses are beginning to compete on price with the monolithic-brick buildings. “In the beginning of zero years, many experts predicted that the monolith will completely replace the panel, including in the segment of mass housing, says Maria Litinetskaya. It was considered that the characteristics of monolithic buildings so superior panel quality, and “obsolete” housing will soon disappear from the market. However, the use of advanced technologies panel construction allowed to destroy a number of stereotypes associated with standard housing. The pace of sales in the projects panel houses indicate a high competitiveness of such buildings.”

A few years ago, buying an apartment in a typical panel, not the monolithic house, buyers could save about 30% per square metre. At the end of the 1st half of 2010 the average cost per square meter in monolithic houses, built on individual projects, amounted to 157.3 thousand RUB compared to 118,3 thousand rubles. for “square” housing in the panel. In 2016, prices for 1 sq. m in monolithic and prefabricated buildings are almost equal, and in some designs, the bar is even more expensive monolith. Now the minimum cost of a “square” in the primary market in the monolithic building is 81 thousand rubles, and in panel houses — 86 thousand.

A curious fact recorded in the secondary market: in the past three summer months in Moscow, the volume of supply of finished housing fell by 8.1%. If in may–June 2016 in the capital, was put on sale to 43.2 thousand apartments, in August — 39.7 million, according to the company “Inkom-real Estate”. A similar decline last seen five years ago. According to IRN, average prices for secondary apartments in Moscow at the end of the summer of 2016 amounted to 170-175 thousand RUB for 1 sq. m, while in the fall of 2014, they reached 215 thousand rubles. for “square”. “Secondary” is not competitive with new buildings: the latter is cheaper, and a lot of them. Besides, in Moscow more and more new housing is finished, which negates the last advantage of the secondary housing.

Cheap areas

As recognized experts, the cheapest accommodation in Moscow is located in old houses near hazardous production facilities and with poor transport accessibility. According to the portal “World apartments”, a list of the cheapest districts are headed by the Western and Eastern Biryulyovo. However, in recent built two new LCD in Zagorje with an average price per square meter to 139 thousand rubles. and Tsaritsino–2 with the cost of square 87 thousand RUB Third place in the ranking went to Sochi. Completing the top five Nekrasovka and Northern Butovo. All these areas have obsolete housing, unfavorable environmental conditions and questionable neighbors as landfills, oil plants and aeration fields.

The most expensive housing is still located in the center. For example, in Khamovniki, the cost per square meter, sometimes more than 806 thousand three leaders with the best environmental performance includes the areas located outside Moscow: Zelenograd, Kryukovo district, the settlement of Rogovskoye of the Trinity district and the North district in the North-East. In General, a favorable ecological situation will be in 20 urban areas.

Gainers

Experts Est-a-Tet identified 20 Moscow districts, new apartments in which over the past year have risen by at least 10%. In the first place was the Meshchansky district in the city centre: over the past year the average cost of 1 sq. m in the primary market has increased twice and exceeded RUB 1 million because of the removal of sales in the region’s largest apartment complex.

Second place went to Bibirevo, the price of which has increased over the year by 40%. Here the cost of 1 sq m reached 181 thousand roubles — at the expense of the only buildings in the whole area. On the third line is the area with +35,8% for the year, prices here have increased to 161,6 thousand rubles for 1 sq. m.

The five leaders also included areas of the left Bank and Khoroshevo-Mnevniki. “Mostly the growth of the average prices in the regions attributable to a higher stage of readiness of construction projects in the absence of output in the implementation of the new volumes in the early stages of construction. The high rate of price increase associated with the change of sentence structure from the implementation gets a better deal or, on the contrary, go on sale complexes are a class above, which promotes the growth of average price”, — explained the head of the analytical centre of the company Vladimir Bogdanyuk.

Plans for October

Realtors do not predict the rapid growth of prices for apartments in the capital: they had reached such a level that deters potential investors. In September, the “squares” are a bit more expensive. As noted by analysts at IRN, an index of the cost of housing in Moscow is gradually crawled to the level of 175 thousand rubles. per square meter, while in summer its value was closer to 170 thousand But attempts to increase prices may result in the subsequent stagnation.

As said Sergei Shloma from the company “INKOM-real Estate”, the capital market is coming into some equilibrium state, and the previous rate housing cheaper will be no more. “It is doubtful that in the coming months we will see offer prices below those that showed the property this spring. In transactions may occur for some further reduction, subject of bargaining. But no more. Price “bottom” if not passed, it is near”, — the expert believes.

source

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