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Saturday, October 22, 2016

A referendum in Hungary failed: Orban should not have to conduct a plebiscite

A referendum in Hungary concerning the introduction of EU quotas on the admission of refugees for member countries – has failed. The turnout did not reach 50%, necessary for the plebiscite was considered valid. However, the majority of the voters – 98,32% – voted against mandatory quotas from the EU. The Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban has already said that this result “is enough for negotiations with Brussels.” However, according to respondents, “MK”, the expert, the politician not only wishful thinking, but the very fact of the vote put themselves at a serious disadvantage.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

“Formally, the outcome of the referendum negotiations with Brussels will not be enough notes in this regard, associate Professor of the Department of integration processes, MGIMO Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli. – Not only that the referendum is not held because of the turnout, but, even being held, he would not have legislative force – the vote was intended to be Advisory. Therefore, from this point of view Orban, of course, wishful thinking.

From the point of view of the political, of course, the referendum has any meaning, since a considerable part of the Hungarian society spoke out against the quota system. Given that in other countries this system is not welcome, Orban extremely would like to the results of the voting were perceived as a considerable part of the population of Hungary. It is his position that he will arrive in Brussels. But this position is not too wealthy: in Brussels he will argue that the referendum originally was Advisory only, but did not take place.”

With regard to the Hungarian referendum as an example for other countries, the possibility of holding such a vote in other EU member States is not excluded.

“But even in this case, the vote will have legal force high only in the host country, and not for the EU. – reminds the expert. – Most of all, it again will go about an Advisory event. And all this does not mean the possibility of direct action in Brussels: the country receives some “bonus” in the negotiations on the issue of quotas. But everything is decided in the EU Council, this is a long procedure, and in the end, the original impetus would just fade away in the corridors of Brussels. And it is not enough for decision-making. Again, some countries may go this way. And, if they accumulate enough – and not forget that the necessary and desired by the authorities of the outcome of the vote, – you can imagine what conclusions will be drawn and in Brussels. While for Brussels the referendum in Hungary — an event rather encouraging: the Hungarians were among the most radical on the question of refugees, but nothing happened. Then what can we expect from others? It turns out that Orban was better not to vote, but just to flaunt them as a threat. Because unrealized threat is always stronger than implemented, but failed”.


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