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Saturday, February 17, 2018

The Ministry of Finance has warned the dollar will be worth more than 71 ruble

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned that the project lays in the budget for 2017-2019 annual average dollar to 67.5 rubles., to 68.7 RUB RUB and 71.1%, respectively.

Arrived. It would seem that the collapse of the ruble after the state Duma elections should not be for objective reasons. The oil is kept close to the corridor of $49-50 per barrel, specific debt to foreign banks no. So why is the national currency in the next three years needs to take positions ahead of “green”?

Two weeks ago, the American Agency Bloomberg has been clearly well planned drain from the Russian government on the theme of the ruble. Allegedly it until 2019 will vary from 64-65 to the dollar. This message could not inspire any optimism. The fall of the national currency over the last two years has long been plunged all Russian citizens in a state close to stupor. Okay it is impossible to buy a ticket — prices even for native goods do not beat the best in the world records. Thank God the peak of food inflation like was passed in February–March 2015. Then prices compared to August of 2014 overcame a 51% bar. Then, in particular due to the temporary strengthening of the ruble, the rate has decreased. Now Rosstat reports that in the last two years products rose only by a third.

Of course, gratifying. Could be worse. But where to take money, when salaries no one is not going to improve, and pensions are not indexed?

Here it is necessary to recall the macroeconomic immutable law, which often likes to say, Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina: the fall of the national currency exchange rate always accelerates inflation. Not immediately, but after three or four months, exactly.

Which means that nothing Siluanov hopes that by the end of next year will impact the growth of prices up to 4%. With planned courses do not work.

So why he scares people? To 63-65 rubles we have become accustomed.

But, as a rule, ordinary citizens in this country think in the last turn. The Ministry of Finance is known to be primarily responsible for balancing budgets. Federal and regional. The last is necessary to increase the aid from Moscow. Thus, only 39 of them will have to increase transfers to hot to Finance their deficits.

The Federal budget is expected next year, the deficit of 3.2% of GDP (this is 3.7% of GDP). At first glance, nothing terrible. According to the IMF recommendations, the country can not exceed the external debt 60% of GDP. Meanwhile, the US this threshold is exceeded over 100%, and it was about 12%. However, if we assume that the loans of state-owned companies, it is considerably more. But up to 60% more than far.

However, foreign banks to borrow us can’t — the sanctions. And internal resources — enough to swear. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance and the market, in order to fill the Treasury.

There were plenty of proposals to raise tax rates. Especially the tax on mineral extraction (severance tax), VAT and insurance payments. By the way, when the West struggled with the aftermath of the 2008-2009 crisis, the entirely increased VAT and income tax.

But we are not the West. Not the level of life and productivity. So Vladimir Putin has promised not to increase taxes until 2018. Then maybe increase. Besides rising interest rates, property taxes, and land on the basis of their cadastral value. However, not in all regions. But by 2020 it will be everywhere.

But since it is impossible to increase direct taxes, indirect can. For starters, the Finance Ministry proposes to 2019 annually increase by 10% the excise tax on cigarettes. It is planned to collect three years 243 billion rubles. In addition, only next year the petrol excise duty is proposed to be strung up by 1 ruble per liter (this year — already 3 rubles). And earn up to 50 billion rubles a year.

Consumers of these products started. Well at least the vodka excise tax will not be increased. But the budget for all this, penny.

We needed a much more powerful lever. And the Ministry of Finance found it. Decided to bring down the ruble by almost 10%. And all seems to be fine. The deficit is gradually reduced. Taxes do not grow. But I forgot the Agency Siluanov?

First, the collapse of the ruble will inevitably lead to inflation. About for a long time promised to us, the Central Bank 4% per annum will have to forget. Second, when a government Department does not believe in his own national currency, who will do it?

And actually it turns out that the Ministry of Finance conducts regular verbal intervention. And for some reason against the ruble. As if all this is not true, and even worse. For example, 100 rubles per dollar.


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