The Ministry of Finance laid in the draft budget for 2017, the average annual US dollar exchange rate to 67.5 rubles, said Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. And in 2018 and 2019, predicts the Ministry of Finance, the American currency will cost, respectively, and 71.1% 68.7 per ruble. This forecast is somewhat less optimistic than the baseline scenario of the Ministry, according to which in 2017 the dollar will give 65.5 ruble, and in 2019 is less than 64.4 per. With the question of whether to believe minfinovskih prophecy, we turned to an independent financial analyst Stepan Demur, whose predictions have repeatedly come true.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
– Stepan G., how realistic, in your opinion, the forecast of the Ministry of Finance?
– I think that the reality is not irrelevant. Let’s look at those predictions that government officials have done in the last 10 years and you will see that they come to pass usually the exact opposite. Latest example – forecasts of the head of the Ministry, which I have found, I think, 23 or 24 of the bottom. Well, in the Ministry of Finance recently predicted that oil prices will not fall below $ 80 per barrel. In short, do not take their predictions seriously.
– I would like to understand, however, in what direction and to what extent they differ from reality.
– It’s hard to talk about how the course will be the average for the year. But if talking about fluctuations, I think that in 2017 we will see 125 rubles to the dollar, and possibly higher. And 2018 – much higher than 125.
– How soon, in your opinion, the authorities will have to adjust this forecast? In other words: how long will the current period of relative stability?
– I think a matter of months. But what does it mean stability? Minor fluctuations in the dollar – not more than 5-6 rubles. And minor fluctuations in the crude oil corridor from 30 to 50. It will last a quarter. Maybe a little longer.
– That is, in the first place these changes are related to the dynamics of oil prices?
– With the dynamics of, say, global markets. And dynamics of the ruble, and the dynamics of oil prices only reflect the influx of liquidity in international markets. That is basically it, of course, external factors. And the worst of them – a huge number of non-residents who use the currency carry trade (borrowing in the national currency of the state, setting a low interest rate and investing them in currencies of States that set high interest rates. – “MK”) and invest in Russian OFZ bonds and ruble corporate bonds. Their care will “kill” the market and our banking system. Again in 2014 – one to one. Not only in December, and later. But I think also in the winter.
In 2014 oil prices fell by more than twice. What can we expect this time?
The first goal is $ 12 per barrel, the second – 9.5 per dollar.
The dismal forecast.
It’s a reality. We cannot hover in some pink clouds.
Rising prices and a falling ruble. Chronicle of events