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Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Russians live worse, but stats are better

Rosstat head Alexander Surinov finally explained why the Russians are worse, that consumer demand is declining, the salaries are reduced, and the ruling party in the Duma elections, gaining a constitutional majority. “When you forge metal, it is denser, explained his idea of a chief statistician. — That’s the same with society. In difficult circumstances it konsolidiruyutsya”. After these words I just want to cry tears of joy.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

In Russia, two of the most unloved organizations — the Bureau of meteorology and statistics. According to domestic statisticians can be trusted and it’s possible not to believe. But other figures do not. So Willy-nilly, to focus on their performance.

Let’s start with the most important thing — demographics. Our government loves to boast population growth, which is happening in Russia since 2009. However, if you look at its structure, it turns out that it’s not the best, since natural growth takes place only in the last three years for 25 to 35 thousand people. The rest of the newly minted citizens are migrants from Central Asia, Ukraine. The number of visitors increasing annually at 250-350 thousand.

The structure of the economy. The share of industry over the last 10 years has fallen by 12% and now is only 55.7 per cent. While proportionally similar figure increased by services, reaching 38.7 per cent. And the right would have improved the quality of service — no! It happened due to the increase in so-called mandatory payments: utilities, electricity, etc.

Or take the major indicator — the volume of investments in fixed capital. In 2015 it below the level of 2007. According to surveys of entrepreneurs, last year has deteriorated significantly three key constraint to investment: uncertain economic environment, investment risks, high interest rates on loans.

In detail the head of Rosstat stopped on import substitution in agriculture and how much the country has actually grown in absolute values. So milk in the first half of 2015 has produced 2725 thousand tons, one year later — 2763. Cheese — 283 thousand tons and 294, respectively. Volumes of made in Russia butter, on the contrary, decreased from 127 thousand tons to 123. Perhaps, with absolute certainty can only speak of the marked increase of pork production, from 820 thousand tons to 961.

Overall food production to the first half of last year rose 2.8%. Approximately the same percent more steel to produce combines, tractors, seeders.

“However, the level of self-reliance of Russians on dairy products and meat much not up to 100%, — said the chief statistician. — Thus, the beef import share 48%, and dry milk and cream — 56.4 per cent”.

More than a third interviewed by Rosstat entrepreneurs, speaking about consumer demand, we are convinced that it is insufficient. The figures bear this out. In January—August 2016 remains negative dynamics of retail turnover, falling sales, especially of non-food items. The index of consumer confidence (and this figure calculates Rosstat) — one of the lowest among developed countries. Much worse with this case only in Greece.

However, Alexander Surinov still found something to please. Because in 2015 the country’s GDP in dollars due to the devaluation of the national currency fell sharply to $3.58 trillion (this is the so-called purchasing power parity), in fact our GDP fell to $1.3 trillion as the nominal exchange rate to a “green”, Russia has become cheaper in the international. This means that in 2015 for $37, you can purchase goods and services same as in 2014 at $56. This is especially important for Russians, receiving a salary in rubles.


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