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Friday, December 9, 2016

Why Russia should not supply arms and equipment to Libya


On the eve of the first anniversary of operation of the Russian HQs in Syria, media reported that another Arab country wishes to resort to Moscow’s military assistance. We are talking about Libya, where, after the death in 2011 of Muammar Gaddafi in the so-called Arab spring, the struggle continues for control of the country. According to available information, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, formally considered the commander of the Libyan army, ostensibly sent a message in the name of Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu with a request to begin the deliveries of Russian weapons – including military equipment to Libya. However, interviewed by “MK”, the expert believes that Moscow does not want to intervene in this way in the events in Libya.


photo: morguefile.com

As predicted, the experts promised after the overthrow of Gaddafi a “war of all against all” in Libya, the country in 2011 turned out to be fragmented. The state now has virtually no Central authority, the right to it disputed at least two bodies: in Tobruk (government recognized by the international community, but controlling little more than the city itself; it includes the Haftarot), and in Tripoli. Significant areas not subject even them, and torn by inter-clan and inter-tribal conflicts. Moreover, the experts of “MK” has repeatedly said that Libya could become the future base for the so-called “Islamic state” (is Russian terrorist group). “There is reason to believe that the battlefield is being prepared, in particular in the Libyan Sirte, where in the autumn of last year went to the Abu Omar — an emissary of the head of the IG al-Baghdadi,” – said, in particular, orientalist Andrey SERENKO.

Neither the Russian defense Ministry nor the foreign Ministry did not confirm the fact of transfer of the message of the Haftarah with a request to supply arms.

However, if such a request from the Libyan side still exists, a logical question – whether Moscow to get involved in events in the North African country? Especially adjusted for the fact that the Syrian crisis is clearly far from complete.

“It is better to avoid a military intervention in Libya. – said in an interview with “MK” the President of the Institute for strategic assessments Alexander KONOVALOV. We are so very deeply involved in the Syrian events is much deeper than expected when the operation started VKS RF, and absolutely no idea how to get out. Moreover, if in the case of Libya we are even talking about airplanes. This means that we will have to train pilots, or to put planes with pilots”.

According to experts, if the message from the Libyan side was still, Moscow is likely to offer help in a political settlement: “to Expand the military operation was dangerous. This region is terribly complicated. Recently it seems to have been agreed with the Americans on Syria, and still resolve the crisis it is impossible: Moscow and Washington, for example, are still unable to separate warring parties to “moderate opposition” and terrorists. And Libya in this regard it will also be difficult, because there is, in my opinion, the Islamists of one kind are at war with the Islamists of a different kind. To understand this, to get into it, supplying complex military hardware – does not make sense, especially in our current budget.”

In addition, said Alexander Konovalov, from the accounts can not be ignored, and the danger of weapons – if it is given into the wrong hands: “This is like if the weapon was delivered by moderate Islamists in Syria, with the hope that it will not fall to the radicals.”

source

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