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Saturday, March 10, 2018

On the Western front change is coming

Unified Western position on Crimea is the test of election. First in USA, then in France and Germany in the coming year will be a change of management and some of the candidates make it clear that you can recognize the Russian Crimea. On Monday, this was said by marine Le Pen, and before that, said Donald trump. Win the trump in the election November 8, will improve the chances of Le Pen becoming President of France, though without it in France more and more supporters of lifting the sanctions.

If in the us presidential campaign enters the home stretch – less than one and a half months – in France it’s only the beginning.

“Victory trump will surely bring glasses, marine Le Pen and will finish Angela Merkel

Elections will be held there in April, and now come the primaries, the Republicans, the main opposition party. Their aspirant has to fight not so much with the nominees from the ruling socialists (regardless of whether they President Hollande or anyone else), but with marine Le Pen.

The leader of “National front” has already become the most popular politician in France – but her path to the presidency is the rule of the second round, where most of its rivals unite against her. Her euroscepticism, indiatlantic and calls for the restriction of migration is popular in France – and an important part of its ideology is a bet on a strategic relationship with Russia. On Monday, Le Pen said that if he wins she recognizes Crimea as Russian territory:

“Given the historic realities as well as a choice that was clearly expressed in the referendum on accession, I if elected will recognize the Crimea as Russian territory. European sanctions, a blockade or even failures in the supply of “Mistral” Russia is not only contrary to the interests of France, but also violates our centuries-old tradition of power, which are not equal to others.”

Le Pen believes that relations between Russia and France are important in a multipolar world and necessary for the resolution of international crises – and this is agree with her not only her supporters, but significant part of the applicants for the post of the candidate in presidents from Republicans. So, of the three major candidates, two clearly stand for the restoration of relations of Moscow and Paris. This former President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Prime Minister Francois Fillon. Sarkozy has repeatedly spoken of the need for the lifting of sanctions and yesterday again repeated it, linking the war of sanctions with the war in Syria:

“I can say what I’ll do if I’m elected President of the Republic. For the past five years, Syria suffers torment, and who would believe that in five years, the democratic world can not end this dangerous gang of crazies from ISIS*? I will ask Putin to become part of a large coalition, I will suspend the sanctions, as the one from the other side, and together we will win militarily IG, I organize the conditions for holding a big international conference on peace and stability in the Mediterranean”.

Sarkozy actually plays on the field Le Pen – he toughens rhetoric in relation to migrants, says good relations with Russia. It is clear that he does this not only in order to pull voters from the National front, but also because these ideas are popular in France. However, in order to become a presidential candidate, Sarkozy needs to win the primaries in his own party – he has six opponents, with whom he will fight in three rounds of debates. The vote itself will take place on 20 November, and the two with the highest number of votes the Challenger will come out in the second round of preliminary voting, which will take place on 27 November.

Sarkozy’s main rival is Alain Juppe. 71-year-old former Prime Minister of the popular former President, although in recent years the gap between them decreases. Most likely, Fillon and former Minister Bruno Le Mer will not be able to overtake Sarkozy for the remaining two months, although the former President is a very large list. According to some polls, up to four-fifths of the French do not want the return of Sarkozy to the Elysee Palace. It is considered false (supporters call it resourcefulness) and corrupt, but of course, Sarkozy has the best fighting qualities among Republicans.

If he still loses Juppe, at the presidential elections will face two opposing positions: Le Pen with her antiflotation, euroscepticism and the axis Paris – Moscow and Juppe with its Atlantic solidarity in almost everything. Le Pen won the first round but in the second round for Juppe to vote on, including some supporters of the socialist candidate.

That could change this seemingly today, the most likely scenario? And if not to help Le Pen become President (in 2017, not in 2022), then at least to ensure the nomination of Sarkozy? Win the trump in US elections – recall that the primaries will be held in France after the American elections – will undoubtedly bring glasses not only Le Pen and Sarkozy, and can provide it an edge over Juppe. Then in the spring in France will be a battle of Le Pen and Sarkozy – that Russia is the best option.

Of course, we would like victory marine and, in principle, the victory trump can launch powerful antielitnye wave in the West. That is start to grow the popularity of Euro-skeptics, traditionalists, and even indiatlantic – as a result, Le Pen will become President in 2017. And in the autumn of the same year will change the Chancellor in Germany, there is, of course, will not come to power, the skeptics (however, they are not just for the first time get into Parliament, but will become the third party in the country), but the place definitely Atlanticist Merkel is the person acting for the normalization of relations with Russia. Whether it’s her replacement as leader of the CDU or the SPD representative, does not matter – as in France, more and more German politicians support ending the “war of sanctions”.

The social Democrats Vice-Chancellor Gabriel and foreign Minister Steinmeier, the leader of the CSU and Bavarian Prime Minister Seehofer – all of them in Germany called “understanding Putin”, that is configured to return to normal relations between the two countries. The coming to power of trump and moreover Le Pen, of course, will impact on the balance of power in the German manual.

That’s why from the results of the elections on 8 November in the US really depends very much. Victory trump’s most likely not because it is profitable for Russia, but because it is a consequence of the processes that are gaining momentum in the West: growing resistance to globalization, sharply falling confidence in the ruling elites. The establishment, of course, may try to stand in the way of history – for example, the killing of the tramp – but it can only lead to further protest. Russia in any case continue to stick to their line in the global game, but of course we would like in the next year to see what “the process has begun and on the Western front.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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