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Monday, October 24, 2016

Experts evaluated the first debate, Clinton and trump

Hillary Clinton enjoys excellent demagogic techniques, Donald trump saved the trump card for the next debate. So experts evaluated the results of the first face-to-face duel” Clinton and trump. Public assessment of the debate varies greatly, but most of mediaprobe gives the victory to the Republican leader.

The day before (and Moscow time – on the night of Tuesday) in the United States passed the first final televised debate of candidates for U.S. President: Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald trump. It is planned the discussion between the main (and, in fact, the only) competitors in the fight for the right to become the 45th President of the United States after the election on 8 November.

“Trump can attract additional votes by people who previously were skeptical”

Rivals in the presidential race have begun face-to-face confrontation with handshakes.

Both politicians appeared on the scene simultaneously from different angles. Clinton was dressed in a long red suit, trump in a suit and a blue tie. Met at the scene, the two bitter rivals, mercilessly critical of each other during the campaign, shook hands and smiled discreetly, RIA “Novosti”.

Note that, according to the latest data, the gap between trump and Clinton are minimal: according to recent polls, it is calculated 2-4%, both in favor of one or another politician.

Who won the debate?

CNN was quick to say that during the debate, Clinton won the trump. Immediately after the broadcast, the TV station conducted a survey, though, among the audience, 41% of which were supporters of the Democratic party, while 26% Republican, the rest of the spectators did not associate themselves with any political party. According to this “democratic” poll, a convincing victory in the debate was won by Clinton thought so 62% of respondents. The police were called to 26%, that is, all Republicans.

However, other editions, which also carried their surveys indicated very different results. So, Time Magazine reported that trump the ultimate winner with a score of 60% vs 40% Hillary.

According to respondents edition of Fortune, trump won the debate as a whole – 51% of the votes against 49% in favor of Clinton. In addition, economic issues trump was supported by 55% of respondents versus 45% for Hillary on national security – 54% against 46%) and “a clear vision of the ways for America” positions trump has shared 51% of respondents, while support for Hillary 49%. CNBC also noted that trump wins with a score of 54% against 46% for Hillary. Slate Magazine said that trump is ahead of Clinton with the results of 54,30% 45,70 against%. The portal TheHill.com added that trump broke away from Clinton with a score of 58% vs. 36% Hillary. And portal NJ.com also pointed out that trump won the debate with the results 55,69% against 39,81%.

“Wow, great poll results on debate – except CNN, which I don’t watch,” said trump in his microblog on Twitter.

On the eve of the debate, trump and Clinton were almost level in popularity among American voters. The main struggle unfolds between candidates for the votes of undecided voters.

Hillary mentions “Russian hackers”

In the beginning of the debate, trump and Clinton made brief statements, while Hillary spoke first, what in advance was agreed.

In fact, the debate, from the point of view of the observers who watched them gave rise in order to catch the discussions in the numerous inaccuracies and direct fraud.

So, Hillary Clinton has again accused Russia of cyberwoman of the US Democratic party. However, The New York Times noted that officially, the US never called Russia the party responsible for these break-ins. Trump also said that the evidence for Russia’s involvement in cyberattacks no. Clinton tried to fight back on the statement that the US has “more opportunities” in this sector than Russia, but the facts she your statements are not backed up. Meanwhile, trump has reminded that Russia really has a lot to learn, and recognized that the United States has a legacy of nuclear capabilities in comparison to the Arsenal of our country.

Trump’s “caught” in his statement that he supposedly was against the war in Iraq, but it is contrary to his statements from 2003. In addition, trump said that Clinton “fought with ISIS* all my life,” while prohibited in Russia faction in Iraq appeared quite late – as a branch of the terrorists, “al-Qaeda”.

“The United States cannot be the police for the whole world”

In the foreign policy part of the debate, the candidates reminded of the traditional US role as world policeman. Trump stated categorically that the United States should abandon it. “I want to help all our allies,” he said, ” but we’re losing billions and billions of dollars. We can’t be policeman to the world. We can’t protect our country around the world that do not make us money because we protect them”.

Trump recalled that the current situation is the result of the mistakes of the Obama administration and former Secretary of state Hillary Clinton. “The actions of Obama and Clinton (in the middle East) has led to the creation of a vacuum, and thus was born the group “Islamic state*,” claimed trump. Among the above-mentioned actions, the Republican called not only the invasion of Iraq, but military intervention in Libya.

However, according to experts, trump could “painful to put pressure on that wound” – as the memories of the failures of the military operations in Libya are obviously the weak link in defence of Clinton.

Trump can still recall the Monica Lewinsky

Experts sympathetic to Clinton as the “candidate system”, tend to think of the debate a clear victory of the candidate from the Democrats (from the Washington establishment in General).

So, a political analyst at the American enterprise Institute Standards Ornstein comments in The Financial Times noted that “never seen a more lopsided debate.” He did not fail to notice that trump, in his opinion, were “mad, chaotic, bustling and his speech was often incoherent. In addition, he is a very bad showing on fundamental knowledge.”

While a Professor at the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato also noted that, although Clinton was “the clear winner”, however, is not the fact that it will affect the ratings of the candidates. “Trump is the candidate whose agenda is based on the change of the old order, so he automatically gets the votes of tens of millions of people who hate Hillary Clinton. However, perhaps it will stop the drift of Clinton down in the polls,” Sabato said.

FT pointed out at the end of the debate, trump hinted that he planned to raise in the discussions with Clinton the subject of her husband’s infidelity, but restrained himself, because it was “not good.” However, trump did not rule out in comments to CNN, that may raise this issue at the next debate on October 9, said the publication.

“Looked convincing opponent”

That the results of the debates were really ambivalent, agreed in conversation with the newspaper VIEW political scientist-americanist Boris Mezhuev. “Physically looked better Hillary. She looked much more confident than she expected, given her physical condition. There was a feeling that she’s leading violin and trump rather defended” – said the expert. However, from the point of view of the overall campaign, this fact can be a plus. “Trump didn’t look like a bully, didn’t look like a man who plays on his sistemnosti. He looked, rather, convincing and acceptable opponent,” – said the expert.

Hillary, meanwhile, the debate showed a significant difference of its position from the point of view of Barack Obama on the issue of globalization, free trade and the TRANS-Pacific partnership. “Its position markedly close to the position of trump and, by the way, Bernie Sanders is at odds not only with Obama but even with their own spouse, who signed the agreement on trade,” said Mezhuev.

Trump can attract additional votes

Thus, if we take the economic line, trump can look more radical but, in fact, the person who asks the right economic direction,” said Mezhuev.

“Clinton distorted facts, but her answers seemed to the audience convincing”

He stressed that in the end, “there was a sense that talking to two representatives of one establishment”. In his opinion, so trump can attract some additional voices of people who were skeptical. “The fact that he played on its field of respectable, establishmentarian policy and she acknowledged it – that’s a plus Trump. And losing the debate, he may be, gets the most number of votes. This curious contradiction is quite real,” – said the expert.

“Clinton skillfully used demagogic methods”

“Not only on CNN, with the same rating out news and other channels – including the public television (Public Broadcasting Station, PBS), ABC, NBC, CBS, and especially MSNBC. Practically most of the news channels associated with the Democratic party, went on the air with news that the debate was won “Hillary Clinton”, – stated in comments the newspaper VIEW political scientist-americanist Victor Olevich.

According to the interlocutor, you can name a few reasons. First, Clinton seemed well prepared. “She very quietly and deliberately answered the questions, even if she didn’t have a good answer to the questions. Even when Donald Trump was able to “nail her to the wall, she used the demagogic techniques, and tried thus to escape from the situation. But these techniques were rather skillfully, despite the fact that trump has proven incapable of such techniques,” notes Olevich.

“The position Clinton is moving closer to the position of trump and, by the way, Bernie Sanders is at odds not only with Obama but even with their own spouse”

Donald trump – a man of a different temperament, he is not a professional politician, unlike Hillary Clinton (who, as correctly stated by the same trump, is in politics for 30 years), – the expert emphasizes. – It affects both the experience and the difference in speaking skills, which Donald trump are underdeveloped, so to speak, due to the fact that it is these abilities were used in a different sphere – in business, including show business, on television.” Trump behaves differently than a professional politician, trained by years and decades of constant political struggle, speeches, etc.

Second, a number of things Donald trump as if not used every opportunity to criticize Clinton, believes Olevich.

“Most are unable to find on the map nor Libya, nor Syria”

Trump could say more on Libya in the debate, which focused on foreign policy – says Viktor Olevich. – Trump touched on the Libyan topic only once and didn’t go into the details.” It is also an important point. Hillary and in this case, distorted the facts, but her answers seemed to the audience convincing enough, said Olevich.

“Moreover, an audience that is unfamiliar with the subject (and the majority of Americans, as you know, is not able to find the map neither Iran nor Libya, nor Syria, nor many other countries) is judged purely on the persuasiveness of the speech of one or another candidate,” – said the source. For people who were “not in”, speech, Hillary Clinton was more convincing, trump answered fragmentary phrases that were repeated, and perhaps for the audience was not so smoothly built as statement Clinton, says the source.

Hillary Clinton used the slogan-blanks”

“The debate was a moment when Donald trump indirectly, inadvertently reminded that Hillary Clinton has gone more than a week of news space. As you know, she’s been sick since 11 September this year when according to her attending physician Lisa Mess, she fell ill with pneumonia; she’s only once appeared in front of reporters, and the more her public speaking was not. Clinton parried, to say: Yes, I was preparing for the debate,” – drew the attention of Olevich.

“She didn’t tell the other person – “ready, unlike you.” But each time he tried to emphasize that by temperament, by their training deserve to be in the White house, and trump, they say, no,” he added.

In addition, Clinton reacted differently to attack trump when the Republican nominee tried to attack, Hillary had a smile on her face, and when she tried to go on the attack for trump, he had a serious face and even the expression some disdain on the face, said Olevich. “Audience this, too, could not see the audience, not sophisticated in political battles. For this kind of people are the arguments of the candidates – secondary, ” said the source. – Important role of emotions, the capacity for oratory”.

In the first half hour to forty minutes, Donald trump went on the attack, and he did it well enough, but in the subsequent part, Clinton was able to attack trump, and himself, believes Olevich. “Hillary Clinton used a workpiece, first and foremost slogan of the workpiece, in their responses in regard to attacks on trump – that hinted at the trump,” – says the expert.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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