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Monday, October 24, 2016

The pace of development of the Crimea produced a mixed impression

As if in mockery of Kiev, the anniversary of the blockade on the part of Ukraine the number of visited the Crimea tourists ahead of last year’s figures. However, the Peninsula still has something to strive for. Speaking about the problems in its economy, experts remind, what challenges faced the United Germany. And emphasize that the important thing now is overcoming the negative heritage of Ukraine.

Anniversary of the establishment of a food blockade of Ukraine has become for the authorities of the Crimea about the report about the economic successes of recent months. “Today we see virtually all sectors to rise, because have formed niches. We have livestock, crops, food production gives rise 15-20 percent in almost every industry compared with last year. I think in the short term we will achieve full self, including going to compete with the regions of Russia”, – said the head of Ministry of economic development of the Republic of Crimea Valentin Demidov. “It can be a feast in commemoration of a collapsed Ukrainian agriculture, especially of Kherson region”, – he added, commenting on the plans of the Ukrainian side the anniversary of the siege in the city of Genichesk of Kherson region (especially the region of Ukraine was Crimea a major supplier of food products). On the eve of the anniversary of another blockade and energy to the press was issued by the Minister of fuel and energy of the Republic Svetlana Borodulina. According to her, the first day of the blackout on the Peninsula will now be celebrated as the Day of independence.

With the tourists well

“The main task – persistent re-creation of social institutions, including civil society of the Russian type, which is the complete opposite of what it was in Ukraine even under Yanukovych”

Official statistics confirm the optimism of the officials. In particular, according to Cristeta, for eight months of industrial production growth of 23.2% over the same period last year, the volume of construction works increased by 39.2%, the commissioning of housing – 16.7%, and registered unemployment in the Republic is estimated at only 0.5% of the workforce.

The major indicator for the economy of the Crimea, the number of tourists – also showed strong growth. According to the Ministry of resorts and tourism of the Republic from January to August the number of tourists amounted to 4,265 million people, which is 26,5% more than in the same period last year. This figure includes tourists from Ukraine, who gradually began to return to the Peninsula (as of July 1, they arrived 120 thousand). In General, last year the volume of tourist flow in the Crimea (4.6 million people) was exceeded by the middle of September.

If you compare the official data on tourist arrivals with estimates in the beginning of the season, then the closest to reality turned out to be the Crimean Minister of resorts and tourism Sergey Strelbitsky, who in January gave a rather conservative estimate – 5 million people in 2016. The head of the Crimea Sergey Aksenov announced the rating in the range of 6.5-7.5 million tourists, but his prediction turned out to be too optimistic. Withdrawal from the market of mass travels in Turkey and Egypt led to the fact that Crimea had to compete with other Russian areas of the black sea coast of Krasnodar region, the resorts of the North Caucasus, the Altai and others.

But, despite the huge role of tourism for local residents, reduce the whole economy to this sector would be wrong. Meanwhile, the situation in some other sectors are less optimistic. For example, high rates of industrial growth were achieved primarily due to sharp increase in the production of electricity, gas and water (from 75% to January-August last year), that is, the Ukrainian blackout has indeed played a positive role. But the contribution to the total industry index of processing industries during the same period was very small – just 3.1%.

Even slower (in fact, within statpogreshnosti) increased agriculture– plus 1.6% by August 2015. Such weak dynamics suggests that the possibility of the Crimean APK do not meet the needs of the growing numbers of tourists – tourists have to be fed with imported food. But the meaning of tourism as an industry consists in stimulating other sectors of the economy.

The finances are worse

“A major setback in the development of the economy of the Crimea, I think what failed to fully start the process of securing the Peninsula their products. Of course, agriculture of Crimea in 2014 was largely killed, especially in terms of processing, and we don’t always imagine how low was the initial position in quantity and quality. But objectively’ve done less than it could be done,” says Professor of Economics Dmitry Evstafiev. On the other hand, he said, the perception of the Crimea, who formed the majority “mainland” Russians are fundamentally wrong. “Often the impression that we want only to improve service quality in tourism. But we do not see very serious positive developments in the Crimean industry – the revival of enterprises, increase in non-seasonal jobs in the off-budget sphere. Yes, it is not “Stalinist industrialization”, but the process of revival of the industry goes.”

“Model of the services economy, particularly in tourism, which is immediately after the reunification with Russia was made a special focus, can not solve the strategic tasks of development of the Crimea, – says the associate Professor of the HSE Pavel Rodkin. – Of course, tourism is a significant source of income and employment of the population of Crimea, and in this area there is a gradual but clear progress, but the need in the development of tourism does not close. Fully the building of value chains, recovery and production development, its integration into the Russian domestic market in the Crimea is still not started. Crimea did not become the model for the Russian economy of the region associated with the new postkrymsky Russia approach to the development of its own industrial production and human capital. Now this vector has shifted to the far East, potentially inhibited the development of the Crimea in the framework of the tourism cluster”.

Rodkin admits that the Western sanctions regime is having a negative effect – the use of standard economic tools there is in such difficult conditions. “Crimean authorities are considering alternative sources of investment, particularly from China, but a serious tightening of sanctions against the Crimean business can stop the economic activity in the region”, – the expert believes. This factor is especially noticeable in the banking sector: from fears to fall under the international sanctions major Russian banks on the Peninsula are not in a hurry, and some of those banks, which in the Crimea came, already lost the license of the CBR. On September 1, has worked in Crimea departments 14 banks, while at the end of 2014, there were 31.

The largest to date, presented in the Crimea credit organizations – the Russian national commercial Bank (MCB) – is, according to the portal “Banks.<url>” in Russia is only a 78 in assets. However, his main borrowers are individuals, not a business. Now in the total loan portfolio of the Bank in the amount of 16.6 billion rubles for loans to enterprises and organizations accounted for only 7.7 billion Is about one and a half times more than the year before, but clearly not enough to fill the financial “blood” of the Crimean economy. Earlier, first Deputy Minister of Finance of Crimea Irina Kiviko estimated estimated demand of the Crimean companies in the credit funds for the next two years, more than 65 billion roubles.

The difficulties of transition

How it will look in the Kerch Mastertel problem hindering the development of the Crimean economy, remains and the incompleteness of the processes of occurrence of the Peninsula in the Russian legal field. This, in particular, reports by tax authorities of numerous violations of the law. In early August, the Department of Federal tax service on the Republic of Crimea reported that during the holiday season, the tax authorities conducted about 800 inspections of enterprises of the resort sphere, and in almost every case, there were identified certain violations. Nevertheless, the tax discipline on the Peninsula gradually getting better: for eight months of the organizations and individual entrepreneurs working in the Spa industry, paid 35% more taxes than in the same period last year (1.3 billion rubles).

The complexities in the formation of the Russian statehood and say the regular upheavals in government – for the government of the Republic of Crimea personnel reshuffle has become the norm. The next “pack” of officials, the head of the Republic Sergey Aksenov dismissed in early September, stating that the process of personnel changes in the Crimean organs of power is only the beginning. The fact that the Crimea became a Russian leader in the number of personnel rotation in the government, Aksyonov explained by the irregularity faced by the Republic task: “not everybody can do This, so it’s nothing personal”.

“The main problem of the Crimea – the perfect nestrukturirovannosti social structures and institutions, – says Dmitry Evstafev. – The underestimation of this circumstance was probably a big mistake, and with the Federal government: programs for of the Crimea was developed, keeping in mind the “weak” region of Russia, which, however, has a certain social infrastructure, primarily, infrastructure of social relations. However, it turned out that to implement programmes in the Crimea almost no one. To date, the Crimean elite, only to finally Matures to the national standards of work.

Indeed, from the point of view of formal metrics, Crimea is one of many subsidized Russian territory, typical of the region-“the middle”. In the latest version of the study socio-economic situation of regions, RIA “Rating” Republic of Crimea was on the 53rd place in the neighborhood of Tver, Amur and Penza oblasts, and Sevastopol on 76th between Kostroma region and Adygea Republic. However, the formal approach does not take into account that from the point of view of quality the notorious human capital of Crimea are still too different from the other regions of the country.

“The population of Crimea for a long time existed in conditions when the most active people were simply not in demand in the Crimea, first of all, in the legal part of the business and was involved in semi-legal and illegal occupation, – said Evstafev. – Therefore the main task of the center is to break through the knee, and to teach a relatively young part of the Crimeans to the fact that the government isn’t the enemy and can help. In the meantime, we just finish to tell the Crimeans that the state generally is.

As the nearest historical analogy, the expert cites the unification of Germany, which would also bring significant challenges to integration: the reunification of the Crimea is one thing. The reintegration of Crimea to Russia is quite another. Germany reintegrated GDR actually ten years, but it’s the Germans. Yeah, 2 million people in Crimea – it’s not 16 million in East Germany, but we are not German sample in 1991. Therefore the main task – persistent re-creation of social institutions, including civil society of the Russian type, which is the complete opposite of what it was in Ukraine even under Yanukovych.”


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