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Sunday, December 4, 2016

The real inflation exceeded the official almost twice


According to the reports of Rosstat, it is not so bad in the Russian economy. Since the beginning of the year inflation amounted to 3.9% and the August has been a complete zero. There are all preconditions in order that by the end of 2016, the appropriate percentage was not above the previously planned six. Note that this “figures” is critical to the calculation of the subsistence minimum of Russians and indexation of pensions. And now back “down officialdom” to consumer reality. Here, alas, is a very different layout.


photo: Gennady Cherkasov

At this time we will count the research holding “ROMIR”. The result of multivariate analysis of consumption patterns of Russian households were selected 156 items in the following categories: food, manufactured goods, medicines, pet food, alcohol and tobacco. Did not remain without attention and the average prices for utilities and gasoline. The calculation was carried out based on the actual expenses of the citizens.

Recall that for 8 months of this year, accumulated inflation (according to Rosstat) was 3.9%. Sociologists have also turned more realistic figure is 7.3%. Call this rate a “deflator”, well, simple — personal inflation. And yet, no matter how you call, the difference is almost two times there.

In the entire history of observations (since 2008) of significant differences was not observed, with the exception of 2013. But that’s exactly the opposite, and in our favor. The official inflation rate was then 6.5% and personal was 3.4%. Yes, and by the end of 2015, the Russians still managed to outsmart her (as then wrote “MK”, savings and shopping for shares): 12.9% and 9%, respectively. Now it is quite in any gate. It turns out that all attempts to save doomed to failure from the outset. And then it becomes easier not. By the end of the year, the Central Bank predicts, and we still “potato” inflation. There is a reason. After all, the acreage was reduced, plus the rainy weather tried. But before the end of the year still need to survive.

And while I can say one thing: “cucumber” inflation has already started since the beginning of September and cheerfully gaining momentum. Compared with August, the cucumbers have risen by 8.2%. Only last week they added 5.3 percent. Since the second half of the month for their “brothers” pulled a tomatoes, rising by 3.4%.

Borscheva set until cheaper, but that’s much slower. Not far off — price stabilization, followed by another rise.

Eggs, in all probability, already preparing for the new year Olivier (last year before the holidays, they have increased in price almost 50%). History repeats itself. In September eggs rose by almost 3%, and the trend is clearly upward.

According to Rosstata, only for last week have risen chickens, pork, milk, fat cottage cheese, cheese, butter, bread from wheat flour 1st and 2nd grades. Seems to be only 0,2–0,4%. However, for basic food products have “dripped” pretty. Since the beginning of the year, sugar has advanced 6.4 percent, black bread and sunflower oil — 5%, butter 6.5%, tea — 10%, frozen fish and caramels — more than 8%. Not to mention buckwheat — more than 30%.

Beef price and game can not afford, but it is still more expensive. Thus, in the Metropolitan shop farm meat since the beginning of the year its flesh is added 60 rubles and now stands 555 rubles per 1 kg. In the store of the middle class — 580. Who does it rent?

Overall consumer spending in August fell by 2%. Hence, the pollsters concluded: the Russians are struggling with higher prices by elementary reductions. We are less likely to go to the shops, keeping for six months the average check at a minimum — about 500 rubles.

Until the end of the year another three months. And, most likely, the economic miracle we are not going to happen — and the wallets of the majority of Russians will shrink. And the difference of official statistics and the real — only increase.

The causes of the statistical discrepancies are diverse. Independent experts, for example, indicate that Rosstat gives often too aggregated figures. And each household has their own preferences, significantly affect consumer behavior. But there is a more alarming symptom. Discounts and promotions this year was obviously no help to save money and to “cheat” thus official statistics. The current mechanism is that the base prices for certain goods increase considerably, but then again, give on new price tags seems to be a decent discount. But in fact, the buyer overpays for everything because other discount above the high of last year’s prices.

One conclusion. We all need more money to provide themselves with a minimum set of goods and services. This means that the crisis is not going anywhere, but only masked.

Dynamics of official inflation in Russia in 2016 (month to month)

Months growth rate (%)

January 0,96

February 0,63

March 0,46

April 0,44

May 0,41

June 0,36

July 0,54

August 0,01

Just 3,87

Source: Rosstat RF

Rising prices and a falling ruble. Chronicle of events
source

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