Signed on Wednesday the government anti-crisis plan was a pleasant surprise: it provided the real support of the population and business, even tax cuts. And nevertheless, immediately visible and some weaknesses of the government plan and how it could be expanded.
The government published the anti-crisis plan consists of 60 points. For its implementation it is planned to spend 2,332 trillion rubles. However, this plan is not Scripture, but working version will improve if “we will have some additional opportunities”, or “what positions won’t work”, or in the case of the deterioration of the situation, said Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Thus by March promise to develop a number of additional anti-crisis measures, it should also increase the funds allocated to fight the crisis.
“In General presents anti-crisis plan lacks a key moment for the economy – a recovery credit”
The meaning of the plan is not only to be pressed down, tighten the belt (for example, it is assumed the reduction of budget expenditures for three years at 5%), but also to give such relief that prostimulirujte transition oil economy in a new direction. Therefore, unprecedented support is received, for example, small and medium business. Another important feature of the plan is that a clear priority is given to all domestic. Priority support is provided to traditional banks and several industries.
To forestall the risk of financial crisis
The crisis primarily hit banks and the financial stability of the state, the twin pillars of the economy. Especially when the West began to play in the geopolitical game, it cuts off Russia from its capital markets, and the collapse of oil prices hurts the ruble. Therefore, more anti-crisis funds go to stabilize the financial system of the country.
In particular, it is proposed that the Agency “bad debt” that will purchase the debts and troubled assets of banks. From 2,332 trillion rubles, which were allocated for the implementation of the plan, 1 trillion rubles allocated to the Agency for Deposit insurance (ASV) for the recapitalization of banks (in 2014). Plus banks will get another 550 billion roubles from the national welfare Fund): 300 billion roubles will go to Vnesheconombank, another 250 billion rubles – other Russian banks.
However, this is not just supporting the banks. The government indicates that financial institution in turn must put these funds for lending to priority sectors of the economy, infrastructure projects and the real sector. With the same purpose, Russia is increasing the volume of state guarantees on loans or bonds raised by companies in the real sector of the economy, including the industry’s largest companies. It provided a total of 230 billion rubles.
A good example of successful cooperation between the state Bank and the real sector: VTB under guarantees issued to airline “Transaero” the loan of 9 billion rubles for a period of three years. The carrier will thus be able in a crisis painlessly to Finance its operating activities (increasing efficiency), and after 2017, when the crisis needs to go, and the traffic volume – once again begin to grow, will be able to repay loans.
The only problem is that the banks can hold the money. But in the document there is no clear mechanism for how banks should lend to the real sector of the economy.
A new impetus for economic growth
Meanwhile, the plan endorsed by the special support to small and medium businesses. Before the crisis, it became clear that the Russian economy is beginning to slip, the export of resources stopped giving high growth rates. The economy needs a new stimulus. Small and medium business should become one of them, not just talking the leadership of the country.
Proposed anti-crisis plan measures do not just help small and medium businesses to survive in difficult times, but also create opportunities for new small businesses, primarily related to innovation, the member of Presidium of Association of young entrepreneurs of Russia Alexander Koshkin.
Thus, the government’s decision to increase twice the limit of revenue for small and medium businesses and expands the opportunities for participation in state and municipal programmes of state support. “Before, if you increase revenue they have lost the possibility of support, although they were required to become a steadily growing business,” says cat. Now such problems should not be. The plan also will allow a greater number of enterprises of small and average business to take part in public procurement, which were previously a big problem.
Could not be happier with the small business and government decision on the extension of the list of activities in the framework of the application of the patent system. “This will provide a good opportunity for the development of self-employment that will be especially important with the growth of unemployment,” says cat.
Kept a word concerning tax holidays for two years for the first time created SP will not pay taxes if their business concerns production and services.
Important was the provision of rights to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to reduce the tax rate for taxpayers applying the simplified tax system with object of the taxation “incomes” from 6% to 1%, and reduce the imputed income from 15% to 7.5%. The problem is that not all regions will take such a step. “We understand that the right is not an obligation. And in the conditions in which we live, I doubt very much that the regions take advantage of this right. Regions, on the contrary, rolled up his sleeves and actively look for opportunities to Supplement their budgets, because they have a tremendous amount of social obligations”, – the Chairman of the Committee on economy of the Moscow branch of “Support of Russia” Alexey Kanevsky.
Many regions have problems with the budget. In 2014, the region’s debt rose by 20% to more than 2 trillion rubles. Therefore, in terms of regions in parallel, there is an additional 160 billion rubles to repay commercial debt.
In addition, the plan could be supplemented by the abolition of the introduction of one or two years of property tax of enterprises for the taxpayers applying the simplified tax system and unified tax on imputed income, which would give small and medium businesses the chance to minimize their losses and to attract additional funding, says the head of direction for protection of entrepreneurs ‘ rights center “Public Duma” Sergey Varlamov.
The bailout plan does not solve one important problem for small and medium-sized businesses. “In my opinion, a month is left before the small and medium-sized businesses by the thousands will begin to close. Because lending is fully suspended,” says Kanevsky. Moreover, the credits are expensive, so they still give only under the provision that this business never happened.
Special attention in the plan is paid to agriculture. The profitability of agricultural producers is a priori low, and investment kicking in this industry for quite a long time. In 2015 agriculture will receive an additional 50 billion rubles in state support. Another 2 billion will go to subsidize discounts for the purchase of agricultural machinery of domestic production. As much to get the leasing company to subsidize preferential leasing of equipment are also manufactured in Russia.
“The allocation of 50 billion roubles to farmers offset by losses from industry unofficial ban on grain exports
However, the Director of development Association of manufacturers and suppliers of food products “Rusprodsoyuz” Dmitry Vostrikov indicates that the allocation of 50 billion roubles to agricultural producers is actually offset by the losses of the industry from a tacit ban on grain exports. Therefore, for the real support of agriculture allocated money should be much more.
The idea is that the Railways does not supply grain to grain exports, the Rosselkhoznadzor does not issue guarantee certificates, without which the grain is exported.
On the one hand, this helped to stabilize the price of bread, bakery, macaroni products in Russia. But on the other hand, farmers because of the “locked” grain loses about 30% of the profits, considered Vostrikov. According to him, farmers without serious consequences for food security could export about 15 million tons of grain and in the end I would receive 3 rubles more profit from each sold thousands of tons. In the end, about 45 billion is lost profit to the farmers, said Dmitry Vostrikov from Rusprodsoyuz. Therefore, allocated 50 billion rubles by the government for rehabilitation of agriculture in the crisis only compensate for the loss of “the private” export.
In addition, support should be recalculated taking into account the growth of the dollar, he said. And most importantly, farmers to implement new planting season need cheap credit money, not only in agricultural machinery (this is in the plan), but everything else: to seeds, means of protection from insects, for fertilizers, which has risen significantly. “Farmers purchased fertilizer in two times less than last year,” says Vostrikov, because the loans have become expensive, and the fertilizers themselves.
“In such circumstances, investing in new production and import substitution is difficult to say,” adds Vostrikov. And it is this effect supposed to be from Russia’s retaliatory measures to ban imported food from several countries such as the EU and USA.
However, the government is apparently ready to heed the criticisms of farmers and support agriculture. At least Dmitry Medvedev after the publication of the plan announced the signing of the decree, according to which farmers will be subsidized loans for seasonal field works and for implementation of investment projects.
Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that the authorities want to make for farmers loan rate was 10-11% instead of 25-27% from Sberbank and Rosselkhozbank, that is, the government may subsidize 15 percentage points.
Except for approval of the previously announced plans for import substitution in some sectors, including in the energy sector (affected due to sanctions and oil prices), special support during the crisis will receive transportation. It is a very traditional industry, which was a priority of the government in 2008-2009. For example, the government will allocate 10 billion dollars to extend the recycling program vehicles, which showed quite good effect last time. Government to help agricultural technology, as mentioned above.
Airlines have long asked the authorities to cancel VAT on domestic flights, because on international flights, this tax is not paid. Here the government made a compromise: to cancel completely the VAT is not solved, but significantly lowered the rate for two years (2015 and 2016). “The downgrade is really noticeable, almost twice. And this is a real measure of support, and not nominal, as if VAT is lowered by only 2-3%,” – said Sergey Varlamov of the “Public Duma”.
These measures will help to stabilize the financial condition of the airlines is to reduce costs and even to reduce the cost of air travel in Russia, which will attract more passengers, he said. With increasing demand for domestic tourism (due to rise in foreign currency) the airlines have a real opportunity to increase their profits.
As for suburban passenger railway transport, the VAT levied on the costs of infrastructure repairs and the purchase of trains. The Railways had estimated its losses due to costs of VAT of 6 billion rubles a year. Accordingly, the plan will help to save almost half. This measure is in the nature of social support.
Kanevsky of “Support of Russia” indicates that the choice to support industries is no surprise. Of course, transportation is the connecting link for the whole economy and its need to develop. “But it’s traditional industries that have always supported. Although it is good that there is no military industry and space,” says Kanevsky, considering that the selection of industries could be expanded.
“Exaggerated example – trade sector, which is not mentioned. The trade generally do not like to highlight, it is considered almost polariscopes activities. But the percentage of people involved in the trade, is the largest, and they are taxpayers. If you do not open a normal credit, then this market will start to shrink, will start non-payments between suppliers and vendors, will be a huge increase in prices and the huge number of unemployed on the street. And they need only to access normal lending”, – says the interlocutor of the newspaper VIEW.
“Trade is the most resourceful industry that is seemingly the only industry that could pull those high interest rates on loans. But it does not work”, adds Kanev.
In General, presented the anti-crisis plan lacks a key moment for the entire economy – revitalization of lending, he said. Because the allocation of banks money for these purposes does not mean that they will increase lending to the real sector.
The anti-crisis plan also focuses on assistance to the mortgage borrowers who find themselves in a difficult financial situation. In addition, provides for the issuance of social mortgage loans on special conditions to separate categories of citizens for demand in the framework of the program “Housing for Russian family”.
It is also planned to expand the promotion of lending for construction of housing of economy class and facilities of engineering infrastructure for this program.
In addition, the individual points allocated mothers (they can get in 2015 to 20 thousand rubles from the maternity capital. Announced measures to stabilize the prices of essential drugs, to limit access of imported medicines and equipment to state procurement (if there are two or more domestic proposals). February 1 will be indexed the insurance pension in the framework of the growth of consumer prices.