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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Donbass “truce” moved from a dead point

Donbass now lives two news. The first relates to the withdrawal of the forces on three fundamental areas – an agreement to this effect was published on Wednesday. Second – prevent the rebellion in the LC, which said Igor Plotnitsky. At the same time, oddly enough, the first news is much more important than the second. In a sense, we are talking about a real breakthrough.

On Tuesday in Minsk was signed a framework agreement on the breeding of the forces of the APU and VSN 2 km deep and 2 km wide at three points of contact. So, you create three new security zones with 4 square kilometers each. In force, the agreement will take effect after it is assured in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kiev, but the information war is on this background of sharply increased now. The leader LNR Igor Carpenter even said on the prevention of a coup d’etat, which, according to him, was to end the offensive of Ukrainian troops.

Purely humanitarian division

“Special suspicion was aroused by those charismatic leaders who kept in mind the utopian or too emotional design “Russian world”

The agreement on the separation of the warring sides were preparing for about three months and was accompanied by a lot of scandals. Ukraine and the DPR and LPR challenged each other the palm in several peace initiatives, which in fact was introduced and was observed only Donetsk and Lugansk. At the same time in the development of the agreement was attended by the advisers to the heads of “Norman four” and Vice co-chair of the special mission of the OSCE Alexander hug, which immediately made me anxious thoughts, because that hug was the initiator of creation of similar “demilitarized zone” in Shirokino.

According to unofficial data, we are talking about the areas of the settlements of Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Peter. The first two are the responsibility of the LC, and the latter is kind of like DND, but in the Donbass several settlements with the same name. And the choice of these zones to create a new exemplary “demilitarized zones” is very eloquent.

The village Lugansk is the city around the important freight railway station in the vicinity of Lugansk, but on the other side of the river Seversky Donets. In different periods of the war, BCH managed to go to the Bank and to control the southern part of the village, but at the moment, due to the implementation of the Minsk agreements Donbass party front up to the famous village of Happiness is strictly the river. The withdrawal of troops two kilometers in both directions will require the APU to clear the town entirely, and from the BCH is to abandon the fortified positions on the shore. Militarily and politically this is not so for the APU and VSN anything. Ukrainian 24th motorized rifle brigade will depart outside of the village just a couple of meters, and within it will remain the “force of law”, which gets not only the police but also the national guard. Earlier in Lugansk direction were recorded up to six battalion groups of special forces unit of the interior Ministry, not formally included in the schedule of the combat army. And the occurrence in this area and so was not planned: the APU is no boats and engineering-pontoon units to force the Seversky Donets.

BCH also do not keep at the site of the village of great forces, and the defense of the high Bank was to create a small strong points and sniper positions. Since the signing of the Minsk agreements, the confrontation here was kind of sniper duels and – at least – not really a sighting shelling with machine guns. Disturbing fire never escalating into something more serious, and could not – because of the terrain and the nature of the parties ‘ positions. So at least create a “zone of dilution” even call what is happening to others rant – all is one. But from a formal point of view, residential development of the southern part of the village now falls out of the potential zone of fire of BCH, despite the fact that earlier APU placed their machine guns and AGS in the buildings that are visible from the other side of the river.

The second “zone” – Golden village – located on route Pervomaisk – Lysychansk is an extreme point of advance of the BCH in a strategically dangerous for the Ukrainian defence station during the last offensive. And it’s a really special area. Gold is one of the oldest in the Donbass mining towns, literally wedged in a narrow strip from South to North in the “gorge” between the heaps of mines around it operated from 1860. There is still preserved coal mine production with outside the narrow-gauge coal wagons of the days of Stakhanov and the first five years. Since the Belgian concession, obtained under Alexander II, the heaps grew to 600 meters high. In this difficult terrain until very recently the southern part is occupied by a part of the VSN and the North – APU without any tactical advantages from either of the parties. In the second half of August on the frontline in Gold renewed clashes, including with mortars and AGS. But from a military point of view, the control by the settlement does nothing, more importantly, who will retain control over the high piles around. This is not the tactics of the plains, and the mountain war, when it is important, who and not who is sitting in the village.

To create a “demilitarized zone” in Gold, it seems, insisted not so much the Ukrainian side, how many of the OSCE and personally Alexander hug. The fact that the efforts of the OSCE mission on the Ukrainian side of the village of spring, was the largest CAT with the six-lane highway with a stripe reverse movement and four shelters in the event of fire. As if by coincidence, the checkpoint is located just two kilometers from the demarcation line of the parties. Now this is the only item in the LC, where the front line can be crossed by car. Retreating, the Azov battalion blew up the bridge through the Seversky Donets, and still people move there, coming down from the high Bank at the broken bridge who’s on it. This movement is not stopped, many residents of Lugansk on the other side of the river cottages and older relatives in the villages. A CAT in Gold provides connections to major cities in the Northern part of the former Lugansk region, controlled by the APU in the first place Lisichansk and Severodonetsk.

For the OSCE this is a fundamental point. Bridge Happiness cannot be restored, and the picture of a dozen elderly people, slipping from the steep shore in any weather, leads to sad thoughts about the humanitarian component of the actions of the Ukrainian side, that is about the area of responsibility of the mission. CAT in Gold was originally created largely for propaganda effect, since it was planned to build spelpunt on the results of the Ukrainian pensions and benefits before Kiev finally ceased to pay them. The OSCE is very necessary to demonstrate a practical result of their humanitarian activities, for all the attempts in the Mariupol area have consistently failed, since the same Statement. And spelpunt objectively add points and missions, and the Ukrainian side, since the running CAT really make life easier for those segments of population who because of circumstances have to cross the front line on the car.

Another thing is that the required 4 square kilometer fall around the Golden piles that will in the future create a risk of renewed bloody clashes in the case that the agreement will go to pieces as all the previous ones. According to the newspaper VIEW, all approaches to the piles and the planar part of the village is densely mined and to remove minefields no one’s going even in the event of withdrawal of the parties. However, the issue of demining has become in the negotiations one of the most fundamental, and no agreement on this issue no, but the Ukrainian side raised the issue over and over again (which in itself is suggestive). Negotiations are civilians, but the APU is clearly trying to create a more favorable starting tactical conditions, even in a tiny area like gold.

“The truce is used by Kiev to the regrouping of forces along the front lines and obvious provocations”

With a third “zone” – Peter – is even harder. The DNR 12 settlements of the same name and directly Petrovsky district of Donetsk city. The data series, we are talking about a small village in the desert Elenovskaya district. There is a two-kilometer separation does not assume any strategic or tactical value, but also can contribute to improving the humanitarian situation in the area. In military terms, in this area it would be logical to talk about the removal of the APU from the Yelenovka, as well as the conclusion of Marinka and Krasnogorovka, to prevent the shelling of residential areas of Donetsk, but the current format of the negotiations, apparently, such radical steps from Kiev is not required.

Thus, we are talking about a purely humanitarian agreements, which in any case will not lead to stress on the most dangerous sections of the front. This beauty measures, of course, a few to make life easier for the part of the civilian population, which often crosses the front line, but not claiming the achievement of lasting peace. The head of the DND Alexander Zakharchenko has expressed in that spirit that “the world is established by negotiation” and not the interim arrangements, and direct negotiations on fundamental issues Kiev is not. The ceasefire, as it has been repeatedly used for regrouping of forces along the front lines and obvious provocations.

Another thing is that, as it was previously with a “demilitarized zone” in Shyrokyne, the Donetsk and Lugansk will be the last to adhere to the agreement, even when its obvious incapacity will be visible to everyone. Now it is referred to as the “first-step peace settlement”, and that is understandable – any agreement in the framework of the Minsk negotiation process are welcome in the Donbass and Moscow, as the Ukrainian side at all to any practical steps for these standards was not. The preservation of Minsk as the venue for negotiations on such local circumstances – perhaps the last chance to keep this format even when aware of the reluctance of Kiev to carry out political statutes on the merits.

The rebellion is almost not visible

Against this background, the statement of Carpenter that in the Republic prevented a conspiracy to create a pretext for the attacks of the APU allows for a broad interpretation. Carpenter, survived not so long ago a direct attack, not announced any details, but the fact that LC all “difficult”, for whom little secret. The Republic is still not rid of the syndrome of “tumors”, it is still bubbling processes, common to all such systems when the chaos of military action brings to the surface the most unexpected force. Ukrainian propaganda easily uses it, emphasizing the ambiguity of the personal relations of the head of the LC and its contradictory relations with the new leaders of the MVD and MGB.

Throughout the war, Kiev was trying to do in Lugansk, more sophisticated pressure than in Donetsk. Lugansk and so weaker neighbor in order that his capacities (human, industrial, financial) less than a quarter of the Donetsk counterparts. There are specific local details. Military action in the area of DND always had a much more violent (with the exception of the early period of the war, when they were all put on an equal footing because of the numerical superiority of the APU). But, for example, Donetsk was not on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe through the turn off the water. And terrorizing (that’s terrorizing, not the military-motivated) air strikes on Luhansk and large settlements LC (Stakhanov and Alchevsk, for example) in the beginning of the war exceeded by the DNR at times. It all ended with the destruction of a Ukrainian aircraft, but the pattern of intimidation, Lugansk and attempts to take him down was evident. Never stopped and backstage games with LC, which involved former members of the Party of regions and oligarchs.

You need to understand that the security service was originally a monstrously corrupt structure, relying on communication among criminals, and among the Ukrainian industrial and commercial bosses, firmly stuck as the whole country, in the 90-ies. The fact that now in Russia is just crazy, in Ukraine is a normal way of life, “boys do things”. It is a sad reality across the country – from Uzhgorod to Kharkov, and the Donbas still have it all within ourselves to overcome. But in Donetsk in force where more complex military situation of the last two years this process of rebirth has been faster than in Lugansk.

The formation of a new military-political elite in Donetsk gave real results, despite the fact that at the initial stage there were also attempts on the part of the curators and the old local elites to bet on “socially close” – the former oligarchic elite and previously involved in politics characters. “Young wolves” did not receive support, “nuggets” moved for the third role, if you do not show sufficient loyalty in the form to which they were not psychologically ready simply because of its origin. Under this category fall almost all enthusiasts of new Russia and “guys off the streets, formed a support and the basis of the militia. Of particular suspicion was aroused by those charismatic leaders who kept in mind the utopian or too emotional design “Russian world”, as well as young children, spontaneously took up arms and gained too much authority among the people owing to the personal courage and suddenly opened military talents. In Lugansk, they do not like, and a series of still unsolved murders and mysterious deaths casts a shadow on the local authority. In Donetsk, in other circumstances just the opposite – like nuggets made the basis of the forces of the Republic. Ukrainian propaganda now aimed at discrediting this layer.

Hence the constant attempts of provoking or stirring up internal conflicts (especially just in the LC), and wanton spread of tales about the most famous field commanders, has long been turned to the staff officers. In Donetsk, the main object of stuffing has long been Mikhail Tolstoy, known by the Callsign “Givi”, in Lugansk continues to provoke conflict around the Carpenter.

The Ukrainian lies and provocations do not cancel the fact that the conflicts in the leadership of the LC do exist. And that made Carpenter’s version of provocative the nature of the “Pro-Ukrainian elements” is quite viable. Given the level of thinking and training of SBU, they could come up with the idea to initiate a “revolt” to be an emotional occasion for the resumption of hostilities.

Another thing is that APU that is in the direction of Lugansk the least fitted for offensive operations, so the episode is about the operations of terrorist sabotage. According to some, in recent days in the zone of responsibility of the 58th brigade arrived saboteurs from 73rd naval center of special operations. But it can be as a bluff, and another form of propaganda pressure. It is unlikely that the divers something fundamentally change in the steppe. They would have military dolphins with a captured.


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