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Friday, October 21, 2016

Six hundred thousand Russians will not be able to take credit the next five years

622 thousand Russians will be left without a penny in his pocket. According to the National Bureau of credit histories (NCBI), these citizens can become bankrupt. And one of them is not young or old debtors, and mostly Mature people group. Thus, the average age of a potential bankruptcy is 37.8 years. As experts warn, such a trend is dangerous. Of the credit process, will simply disappear economically active population. This will lead to stagnation in the banking sector, followed by other sectors of the Russian economy.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

The law on bankruptcy of natural persons came into force on 1 October 2015. For him to declare bankruptcy can a person whose debt exceeds 500 thousand rubles for a period in excess of 90 days on all types of retail loans. While bankrupt not more than 10 thousand But soon their numbers probably will increase dramatically. Thus, according to NCBI, with the beginning of the year there were 622 thousand “candidates” in bankruptcy. The average age of the potential bankrupt is 37.8 years. That is simply washed away the most economically active group of Russians.

But as practice shows, at this age Russians often take out loans, and long-term. In particular, for the purchase of housing or car. Now the share of such borrowers in mortgage and car loans is 30-40%.

So if all potential bankrupts will become real, it threatens to lower profits of banks in the next five years. It was during this period, the bankrupt debtors have no right to take another loan.

“As a rule only by means of loans to citizens to buy apartments and cars. So, for example, new home sales, the share of mortgages reaches 45%, ” — says “MK” a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB Alena Afanasyeva.

That is the limitation of the possibility to take new loans may affect the Russian automotive industry and in the construction market. “It is in these sectors is not enough high quality borrowers or wealthy buyers. For example, according to the latest data of the analytical Agency “AUTOSTAT”, for eight months in 2016 the market volume of new cars in Russia amounted to 780,2 thousand units, which is 8.4% less than it was last year over the same period”, — the expert continues.

Also, do not forget that among the potential bankrupt and individual entrepreneurs who took out loans under your business. That is, they fall out of the credit and, accordingly, will not be able to continue his job, which was to become the growth driver of the domestic economy. Will remain without jobs workers to entrepreneurs, as well as in the construction and automotive sectors.

But, according to lawyer Vladimir PostNuke, the number of potential bankrupt may be more. “The current law on bankruptcy of physical persons has been repeatedly criticized. And one of the main complaints is that the registration of bankruptcy proceedings is paid by the citizen — that is, potential bankruptcy. He pays for the services of a financial Manager who conducts the procedure shall pay the fees and so on. Therefore, to talk about 622 thousand potential bankrupt — so to downplay the figures. In practice, there may be even more”, — says the lawyer of Vladimir Postnik.

Moreover, according to experts, problems in negligent borrowers will continue after a five-year loan moratorium. Banks adhere to a low-risk strategy and carefully assess future borrowers. However, approvals already extremely small. According to NBCH, if in 2014 the average was 9.5%, then in summer 2016 he fell to 9.4%.


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