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Sunday, December 4, 2016

The political scientist Pavlovsky the results of the elections to the state Duma predicted “the burning of party cards”


Despite all the calculations and hopes of the opponents of the government a new Parliament has become more “concrete” than before: “United Russia” will receive a record number of seats, while the fragmented opposition was unable to overcome the fact that not five percent, but even a three-percent barrier which separates them from government funding.

Who is to blame, what to do and quo Vadis? To the eternal questions of Russian policy meets the President of the effective policy Foundation, a former adviser to the head of the presidential Administration Gleb Pavlovsky.


photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Gleb Pavlovsky

— Gleb Olegovich, according to your well-known concept we go back to the era of politicization. Moreover, this process becomes less controllable power. But the results of yesterday’s parliamentary elections in flagrant contradiction with this thesis. Politicization is canceled?

– No, I think it’s accelerating. Just the politicization comes in the power system, the establishment, within the system, which holds a monopoly on the leadership of the country.

After the system has completely banished the political life of the public sphere, that is moved inside the apparatus of power. Now we are fighting not “United Russia” “Apple” or the “Party of growth”. Vnutripolostny struggling party, fighting with each other law enforcement agencies. We “bought” the governors, as well as once “ordered” business.

There is expansion of areas of conflict, and these conflicts are less controlled by the authorities. Inside the Duma, we will see the same thing: in the parliamentary parties reigns uncontrolled pluralism.

Only this unprincipled pluralism — the pluralism of groups, lobbyists, masters of wrestling under the carpet. Why this fight is only at the top of the pyramid? The clipping area is visible is the state of the media.

Do you know what a lobotomy? After the surgery, once considered useful, the fading influence of the frontal lobes of the brain on the Central nervous system. People turns into a vegetable, but ceases to respond emotionally to the environment. Accordingly, the environment ceases to influence his emotional state.

The state media act as a scalpel, which cut off the population from conflicts in the control layer. And the population is watching a movie, immersed in a sweet dream. Popcorn, however, not enough, not enough. And soap operas are not all pleasant. However, politicisation can not break while using this barrier.

The population in the mass, today is not able to see and understand what was happening. Someone believes that everything is in order, someone that you can not change anything. Actually both — wrong assessment of reality.

— However the impression is that the partition separating the population from politics, can survive if not forever then at least long enough.

– It exists for about 10 years. On its performance go huge money. In the first place — to support people preserve the illusion of consumer ability. But you need to country something was made.

But look at what we see in these elections in large cities, which creates the highest added value, the turnout was actually about 30 percent. Before the night began suddenly to grow. He pulled his turnout by the Caucasus, the Volga republics and a number of regions managed vote. In other words, we see divergent scissors: the government increasingly relies not on a locomotive areas of the economy, and the area of budgetpulse. In the twenty-first century to exist is impossible. I do not see here not only nothing is eternal. I do not see even that will provide stability for at least 3-5 years.

The staging of a TV show the government can spend the money for quite a long time. As a virtuoso magician, she is continuously keeping us in suspense, showcasing all the new pictures, all new stunts all new wonders. And sometimes it’s really exciting. But life is not the same as the show. There comes a time when the viewer must turn around and go to the fridge. Remember the scene from the TV series about Sherlock: his housewife looks in the fridge, and there — cut off the head and nothing more?

At some point the audience the feeling of discomfort from occurring. This feeling will pass upward, and the lower house will be dissenters. At first they will be few, but that’s why they will be especially audible.

— You mean just the elected Duma?

Yes. I think that the Duma will not be able to survive in a zone of stability to the end of his term. In my estimation, resources of power enough for about half term. But the Duma will not evaporate after that: these people will have to react to the new situation, make some decisions. Of course, it’s too bad that there’s not enough competent people. You’ll have to learn on the go. But this is not the first time in our history.

— If I understand you correctly, the deputies from the ruling party begin to clash with the ruling party?

Yes. First of all, — odnomandatniki. They will always sweeping gesture to indicate the loyalty to the constituency that selected them, their region, their land. And easily burn the membership card.

— Before the election you vehemently argued with those who have proved the senselessness of participation in elections for the liberal opponents of the regime. In fact the meaning really little. Do not think that is defeated in this dispute?

– I never said, incidentally, that there is a chance of winning. Not even close could be neither of the majority nor the influence of power. The most that could be expected, the emergence of one or two fractions.

Too bad they didn’t show up. In this sense, I am really lost. But I can’t play for the party, I can only present its case.

Now the game needs to join the opposition forces themselves to analyze their mistakes. You can’t just rely on Putin’s bad or lazy voter. Need to find out why he is lazy. Laziness is, as you know, unwillingness to function in a given direction. So maybe you’re asking the wrong direction? Maybe this is all about? The voter today is not Putin’s problem, he now has other interests. And these interests clearly deserve recognition. Hope that now begin discussion of the reasons for the defeat. The defeat for the Russians, by the way — always a very productive thing. All that we have been positive that happened after defeats.

— In his blog on Facebook you called “the main positive result of the election” the fact that “none of the non-parliamentary parties will not be able to qualify for government funding”. Is this a joke?

– Not a joke. Yes, fundraising is a very difficult task today, when the business is afraid of everything. Well, decide this difficult task, and not stand in line to the Kremlin ticket office. I think this will be very useful for the opposition. She needs to find the money in the country, and this is to understand the interests of those who are willing to give the money. Real interests, and not worrying about what we have in the past been bloody Stalin.

Read the story “Crushing victory “Edra” and the couch: why is the ruling party won the election”

The policy did not sleep on election night: from Putin to Yavlinsky (22 photos)

Elections to the State Duma 2016. Chronicle of events
source

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