The fact that the country fell into a deep pit (and most decent word to describe the situation), is apparent for almost everyone. The stability of the economy, and with it our lives irreversibly over — and it is clear that to return need a new, and radically new economic policy. The current raw-material, its possibilities exhausted. Both the government and society are aware of the crisis, but nobody does anything about it. Meanwhile, the time for reforms is running out.
Now, after the Duma election, when the old and new members will be seated in their places, to the forefront of the political agenda will be released in 2018. But really, the main question is not about will Vladimir Putin for a fourth term. The main intrigue revolves around whether or not we soon be expected to change the economic and political model state? What scenarios of transit most likely? The name of the future President it is interesting only from this point of view. Young, Mature, elderly — it’s important, can he reform and how it is their conduct?
Reserves running out, the system is in dire, critical needs to restart. However, every year start convert is becoming increasingly difficult, now the situation has been brought almost to the extreme. The state obviously does not cope with the undertaken social obligations, the population is rapidly impoverished, the political structure rests only on parole, and the President’s health.
However, the most important for the future of the country, the authorities prefer not to act strategically and tactically. While you were high oil prices, it was possible not to think about the costs of spending efficiency and progressive corruption. When the situation worsened, also routinely went the easy route of dissipation of reserves, introduction of new taxes for the General population, pressure on small businesses, reduction of social articles of the budget, commercialization of health, education and science.
Soon, however, it became clear that these measures to ride out the crisis will not succeed. Therefore, at the present time the mechanism of withdrawal of “superfluous” money from big businessmen and top officials who until then were left intact. This is evidenced by unleashed by allegedly anti-corruption campaign is actually aiming to collect tribute from certain segments of the elite. But not with all, but only with “long” rounds, without affecting the middle to power a group of businessmen and administrators.
The system follows the path of the Soviet nomenklatura ‘ 80s. at First she firmly “brinella”, bent, internally rusted, now, experiencing a lack of resources, trying to rid the front half measures, in particular, to moderate the exhaust out of the country all the juices corruption with unit landings. In the end, people are learning about the enormous wealth of an average hand of the colonels, make sure the total corruption of power, but not seeing any decisive action, and convinced of the unwillingness of the elite to change anything. 8 billion rubles in the apartment Zakharchenko and 8 thousand rubles pension. The difference in million times! And no one from the leadership of the Ministry did not resign. This single fact is sufficient to deprive of confidence in the entire political system.
The problem, however, is (and this is the main problem) that those who have money and power — the nomenklatura-oligarchy of our time — even in a crisis do not want to change their situation. They cling to their sverhbogatyh and privileges. And understanding of the need for change comes to them with a catastrophic delay. So it was in the late tsarist and later Soviet government. Instead of starting the reform in advance, the government has delayed their implementation, bringing the situation to the point of no return.
In the past elections in the state Duma “United Russia” is going to win in the Prime Minister Medvedev, did not offered the people of the anti-crisis plan — any strategy or at least even successful tactics. Quotes Putin and jammed reminder about the Crimea and getting up from his knees — that’s all the content of their campaign. Partly people came to the polls, partly voted as asked, partly voted by the inevitability. But the question of where to go next, remained open. Does the power to answer or all this uncertainty will result in 2018?
Meanwhile, Russia was before the fork of two roads. The first, inertial scenario. In the political sphere it implies further tightening of the screws. Developed in the beginning of the “social contract” due to the lack of guarantees of a comfortable life becomes impossible. So without Stripping possible competitors and the relief of social activity painless task of extending the powers or the transfer of power by inheritance, not to solve it. Therefore need, for example, and further increased Internet censorship in the media, and the strict enforcement of the residue of the elections, the increasing persecution of undesirables, and even more frequent and trials.
In economic terms, this simple plan involves dispossession is not quite loyal oligarchs came under the hand of officials who have to pay for the crisis. Of course, this is a temporary effect and will allow to fill some budget holes. But for a country like Russia, given the scale of the crisis, the effect will be very brief. When this money runs out, the reforms will be the only option. But by the time I’m afraid the last the capital will be spent, and the economy to invest will have nothing. A chance to change something without breaking the root can be omitted. The country will spend accumulated in Soviet times, and to exit from the crisis will once again need a Titanic effort of the people — but in the context of increased global economic competition, Russia may will never catch up.
The second scenario is vital — it is the reform today. Need support from the state of the economy, to give her the impetus to launch mechanisms of development. I think that this is impossible without investment cost and, accordingly, without strategic state planning, making rational use of the resources that we have. Support is not the General economy, and the growth points that will be able to provide import substitution and creation of competitive productions in non-primary sector and agribusiness.
Where to take means? Reserves, tax reform (redistribution of load in the direction of the super-rich), confiscation of illegally accumulated as a result of corruption of the capital, limitation of withdrawal of money abroad. It will require some tough measures against the business elite, the higher strata of bureaucracy. It should not be affected medium-sized businesses, ordinary civil servants. Not scapegoats, but really super-rich people have to participate in the country out of crisis.
So going into the economy means not stolen, the necessary restructuring of the political system, because in it the roots of corruption. It comes from the secrecy, lack of control of power to anybody except myself, bloat and inefficiency of the bureaucracy. No miraculous recipes here does not exist in the world, free media, judicial, parliamentary, public control help to cut the appetite of those who are entrusted with the budget. And still need the regular turnover of power and it will help only free and fair elections.
We need to support and rapidly impoverished during the crisis, the population — and not only out of a sense of social justice. When people can’t buy, the economy is always in crisis. With the help of government financial assistance to stimulate consumer demand, while import substitution in those sectors, where will the funds come from the public — otherwise the money will go into foreign currency and abroad. Need to protect domestic businesses from robbery and extortion, otherwise, again, all he will get from the state and the people, he will hide behind the hill. Plus dramatically reduce lending rates for business. If all this is done, then a few years will grow tax revenues, public assistance will pay off.
The strategic plan is needed now is a reboot of the education system — in accordance with the development priorities of the country at least 20 years, support for science, the national technological base.
Recipes that are now in need of Russia, lie on the surface. And, it would seem that the high ratings of the President and the vast majority of “United Russia” in the Duma is the time right now to conduct a large-scale transformation. There is a margin of safety, have the necessary level of support. But we have all turned on its head. In the Russian reality rather, we can expect the start of the reforms in that case, if the power ratings begin to drop dramatically. And they will inevitably reach a critical point subject to the deteriorating socio-economic situation. Forever with stories of patriotism can not eat, you’ve got to eat something, and children to wear, and to be treated.
And fork can occur already other reforms from the top or bottom of the shocks. Attempt to stop time always led the Russian government to collapse, which rained for the country. Do I need to bring this up? The passivity of the people in Stripping the opposition — the phenomenon of imaginary and temporary. Now there are many local social protests, their number is not decreasing, the growing and General dissatisfaction. And somewhere can seriously detonate. The same rake is destiny?
Remember the anecdote about Ivan the fool. It was his father’s three sons. Here came the eldest in the yard, there lay a rake. He stepped on them and died. Out middle son, and the same story. The younger brother, Ivan, realizes that in the yard of a rake and not have to step on them — and there’s no other way! The fate of such…
It would have been funny if it were not so sad.