The results of the Duma elections can be called at the same time both expected and unpredictable. We discussed it with political analyst Alexei Makarkin, Vice-President of the Center for political technologies.
photo: Archive MK
In Parliament will be presented the same four parties. But the number of votes that they received in the voting, is very different from that of 2011.
“United Russia” has improved the indicators on the list, gaining more than 54% against for 49.32% in 2011. Second place was nearly divided of the Communist party (13,41% vs 19,19% in 2011) and the liberal democratic party (13.24 per cent against 11 and 67% in 2011).
Zhirinovsky’s party showed unexpectedly good results in lists, and the Communist party, on the contrary, has worsened their position. Yabloko gained a little more than 1.96% and lost state funding.
A distinctive feature of the campaign was the low turnout across the country voted less than half of the votes in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the turnout was a record low.
So, the word Alexei Makarkin.
— Why the Parliament has not passed a new party?
– First, for many people of the “United Russia” is associated with the President. This factor became more significant in comparison with 2011, because the President now the commandant of the “besieged fortress”, because the country is perceived as being “cold war” with the West.
Secondly, society has fallen into a state of apathy and depression, no euphoria 2014. In this state people do not want change.
Even in everyday situations, when a person has depression, he is not engaged in a search for alternatives. He begins to look for them only at the next stage, when this state turns into negative emotions. So people voted for the party known. The party tried to capitalize on different slogans were liberal, nationalist, and paternalistic. But when you’re depressed, you do not wonder.
Third, played a role eternal the administrative resource. It was more complicated than before. In the 11th year, the distortion was still rampant, the country now lives at different speeds.
On the one hand, there was a Federal agenda on holding fair and legitimate elections, and a number of regions have taken it seriously. On the other — the number of regions it was seen as an indication that you want to be creative: there are regional interests and a desire to spend “their” people.
— The result of “United Russia” on the list was still unexpected. How many predictions that the crisis will affect the vote. None of the sociological service, gave the EP more than 45% . However, the party won 54,21%. What, in your opinion, caused such a gap?
— Sociologists still less take the backwoods and backwoods vote for “United Russia” in a very disciplined way. But it could give a variance of a few percentage points. I think the main reason is what I already said, the competition of administrative resources in the regions.
— You mean the administrative resource during the election campaign or on voting day?
— First and foremost — on the day of voting. It came to the point that Ella Pamfilova had to threaten that the election results in one of the regions can be canceled. In addition, there were regions with very high turnout. The turnout above 70% shows that the administrative resource is unleashed in full.
As for the election campaign. The advantages of the candidates were in power, it is foolish to deny. But they wouldn’t have worked if public sentiment was against it. For example, I remember in the elections in 1989, one candidate was a bright large posters and small greyish leaflet. There was also a clear inequity. But won the second candidate, because then society was not apathy, it dreamed of change.
— You raised the issue of turnout. How to explain such low rates, especially in Moscow and St. Petersburg?
— People do not want to vote. Plus in Moscow and St. Petersburg do not have anyone to catch up.
— Was there a possibility of non-parliamentary parties to mobilize the electorate?
— The theory was. But I don’t see how it could be done practically. Apathy superimposed transfer of the voting day of September, hence the agitation was in the last two weeks before the election. Even if the opposition leaders held an extremely successful campaign, the result was not much higher.
— Under what conditions the state Duma would pass the “Apple”?
— Was the factor of Grigory Yavlinsky, it was too much, and people in liberal circles still want something new. For some voters turned out to be stronger “Crimean factor”, that is, that people can sympathize with “Apple”, but consider that the Crimea is still ours. The “Apple” was a good rollers and a good list. But if the campaign would be flawless, it is still voter apathy played a role.
— The position of the CPRF and the LDPR almost equal. Why?
— The Communist party failed to overcome the image of an archaic political power. The campaign was very traditional, they are played on the retention of the electorate, and he’s getting old and it becomes smaller. These factors contributed to the fact that nuclear electorate has remained with the party, and a peripheral turned away.
As for the liberal democratic party. The rhetoric of Zhirinovsky has always been outrageous and marginal. But the state now began to speak words of Zhirinovsky and the liberal democratic party gained additional legitimacy. He ceased to be an odious figure. Part of the urban voters who voted for Prokhorov in the presidential election, saw Zhirinovsky successful person. Plus he has accumulated a part of the moderately loyal protest, who believes that the king is good, and the bad boyars.
The social revolutionaries (the party of 6.19% of the votes on the list in 2011, the result amounted to 13.24 per cent) did not attract the attention of voters and came mainly at the expense of the regions in which they have a known policy.
— The new Duma will differ from the previous one?
– After the elections will have to take a lot of unpopular laws in the socio-economic sphere, such decisions will be even easier to make. And single-mandate deputies will have to strike a balance between defending the interests of the regions and cooperation with Federal officials.
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