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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Extremely important a Turkey

From 21 July for a period of ninety days, in the Turkish Republic introduced a state of emergency for the first time in the whole country. About him General Russian public, by and large, is little known. Our media sometimes write about “hundreds of enclosed public organizations and educational institutions, thousands of detainees and tens of thousands barred from public service. And, of course, about the fact that Putin called Erdogan and showed him strong support, in contrast to the West, which after the coup attempt made on 15 July, a mouthful of water while.

Then readers are very likely to can occur frequently asked question: why, in fact, the Russian public in these international Affairs go, as soon as within the country has its own agenda and it is now Oh, how difficult?

In an effort to avoid the repetition of a mantra like the one that “the modern world — global”, just note that a lot of what is happening in Russia, one way or another, is related to the position of our country in the international arena and implemented its foreign policy.

The return of the Crimea and the Ukrainian track policy in General? — sanctions-contractiona war with the West, the end and edge which is not expected…

The beginning of Russian air force operation in Syria? — the increasing complexity of the already arduini relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf and the “plane crisis with Turkey.” Again resulting in sanctions economic war against Turkey, which, we note, despite the handshake between presidents Putin and Erdogan, not yet formally completed.

The examples further. And if someone could convincingly argue that all this has no direct relationship to the economic situation of the country and the welfare of Russian citizens. In short, a luxury that can afford those Americans to perceive the world through the prism of news their neighbourhood, town or at least state that we, unfortunately, can not afford.

So, it is easy to predict that the role of Turkey, with its geostrategic position in the coming years will grow. It seems that this role will not be exhausted regularly fills the Treasury with receipts for gas and oil. And, despite the strategic importance of the pipeline “Turkish stream” and a nuclear power plant “Akkuyu”, it is also not all…

In 2016, exactly eighty years since the signing of the current Montreux Convention, which radically changed the terms of a previously signed the Lausanne peace Treaty from the point of view of the remilitarization of the black sea Straits and the establishment over them of full Turkish sovereignty.

Thus, in 1936, the Turkish Republic became the sole and rightful holder of the keys of the major for Russia of the canal, connecting Black, Marmara and Aegean sea. Artery this note, not only has economic value, for example, for a delivery of naftusi” around the world, but just as the military-political.

The Montreux Convention, adopted by the sweat and blood of Soviet diplomats gave the Black sea a special legal status with the restriction of the universal international principle of freedom of navigation. In particular, was subject to strict regulations the passage of warships of non-black sea countries through the Straits of the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus, as well as the permissible duration of their stay in the black sea basin. The existence of a Convention, coupled with the adherence of Turkey it is the only thing that does not allow NATO ships to patrol freely along the Russian coast. The exception is, of course, Navy Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, and also let is not in NATO, but no more friendly Ukraine. However precedents when Turkey blocked the U.S. catch in recent years was enough.

It is no coincidence that after the crisis of the downed Russian su-24 all the Russian expert community was abandoned, in fact, the decision of one key issue. What is the fate of the Montreux Convention in the emerging new reality of Russian-Turkish cold war and Turkey could close the Straits? And if the answer is “maybe”, what symmetric or even asymmetric actions may be taken in the case of the Russian Federation?

And if it was still… more than one year by the Turkish leadership considers the implementation of the so-called crazy project, or, to put it a little clearer, the construction of the canal Istanbul. As expected, the future the canal will connect the Black sea and the Marmara sea on the European part of Turkey. The length of its approximately 50 kilometers, budgeted cost, according to the latest statements of Erdogan, is estimated at $ 13 billion. Turkish construction business, is nearing completion of major construction projects in the country, is experiencing a strong hunger to new projects and ready to proceed to the construction of “insane” channel tomorrow. Important detail: shortly before the military coup of the Turkish government and Panama concluded an agreement on the exchange of experience, particularly on the operation of the Panama canal. Some explanation is needed as to whose protectorate is Panama?

The consequences of the commissioning of the canal Istanbul” for Russian Federation can be divided into two groups: economic and political.

First, the Turkish Republic will do everything possible to ensure that the Russian tanker traffic be switched from a free trial, with the exception of pilotage services, the Bosphorus Strait on the use of alternative artery. Of course, already paid of course.

The grounds of the Turkish government, creating a permanent source of passive income for shipping transit abound. For example, the permanent threat of ecological disaster in a unique natural monument, which is the Bosphorus. The flux density on this narrow and difficult navigation of the Strait from year to year only increases, and the accident of the oil tanker no-no and happen. So to challenge this expensive transition is, apparently, difficult.

The second set of issues, though no direct monetary value but much more important. With the emergence on the map of another route, an alternative to the Bosphorus, in the legal sense, there is a legal void, unregulated by provisions of the Montreux Convention. That is, at least on the agenda should be a question of the convening of an international conference with the aim of amending it. Started for the health, all there may end for the peace. Poduim a little water if you don’t mind?

Using the channel Istanbul as the reason for the discussion, our “partners” in NATO may be raised the question that the Montreux Convention should be, in principle, updated. That is to say, taking into account new risks and threats to peace arising in the Black sea basin, coming from an unnamed country, like in that children’s joke, “with a blatant red face”…

We are here for some reason tend to think that the current world order with the United Nations, the security Council and the Russian veto, in the end, with the Montreux Convention is all firmly and permanently. Offer to Wake up for a moment from this sweet delusion, and to understand a simple thing: it’s all the same rich inheritance of the Soviet Union, as created decades ago, the nuclear shield of Russia. And many in the West would very much like to have this heritage was recognized as a vestige of the past, in need of drastic revision…

Here, in open printed on, of course, is not the place to delve further and write about the possible strategy of the Russian Federation in respect of such, without exaggeration, unprecedented in its significance of the project channel as “Istanbul”. But one thing is clear — in advance of its implementation, Russia should begin to lay the strips and to achieve complete clarity on the fate of the Montreux Convention, especially with the party — the initiator of the project, i.e. with the Republic of Turkey and President Erdogan. Otherwise, the legal conflict is inevitable. And that’s an understatement — decade, the current Convention may simply be dusted on the eyes.

So, back to the beginning of our conversation, relations with the Turkish Republic and all those squabbles that are currently taking place in our southern neighbor, I can not take domestic experts, and in principle any thinking person. And here comes to the fore a range of issues associated with the transformation of the Turkish political system, the velocity of which is greatly increased after the introduction of state of emergency.

It is clear that human rights defenders in Turkey and abroad concerned about the fate of thousands of detainees on suspicion of involvement in the coup attempt in connection with the so-called terrorist organization of Fethullah Gulen. Of course, the issue of impartiality of the investigation and legal proceedings is important. But the investigation, arrests and the courts — is only one side of a state of emergency.

The other is that the Turkish Republic from July 21, switched to manual control mode. The Turkish government, read President Erdogan, currently have received the right to issue decrees, receive the force of law automatically, that is without consideration and adoption by the Mejlis. And, reading the text of the received documents, it is easy to verify that, along with fire actions, for example, a temporary restriction of individual rights and freedoms of citizens, a number of provisions aimed at restructuring the political system of the country as a whole.

Ambitions of Recep Tayyip Erdogan for turning the country into a presidential Republic is well known. The flywheel of this reform in the eyes gradually unwinds. And Russia is very important to understand in what direction the Turkish Republic, to have a coherent and comprehensive strategy of interaction with her, at least on key aspects, including the Straits and the Montreux Convention. It would be dangerous to underestimate the role of Turkey in the international arena or to assume that a handshake between Putin and Erdogan “game is over”. No, gentlemen and comrades, is still playing the middlegame…

Coup in Turkey. Chronicle of events

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