The Russians continue to set aside funds for a rainy day. According to the Bank of Russia, volume of population’s deposits in August increased by 0.5% and amounted to 23.4 trillion. As experts explain, the reduction of income volatility on the currency and oil markets and also the unstable geopolitics are forcing citizens to save and make savings. And, as a rule, store their hard-earned money people prefer to credit institutions. However, the Bank the Bank alike. In memory still fresh of the sensational stories such financial institutions as the “Master Bank”, which the Central Bank deprived of the license in the fall of 2013 for money laundering. No wonder that ordinary Russians are wary of choosing a Bank. Which a credit institution can be trusted with funds, found “MK”.
Criteria of reliability of Bank Deposit
As experts explain, in most cases, now Russians driven savings motivation. Everyone wants to delay as much as possible. For example, in the first half of this year deposits of residents in banks have grown on average by 13% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 384, 5 thousand rubles on the Deposit. About it reports a press-service of Department of economic policy and development of Moscow.
The population uses banks as a piggy Bank for a specific purpose — for example, the purchase of apartments. “A trend we will see in the near future. Generally, you need to spend carefully, and accumulation should be borne in any case, at any income” — advises the General Director of the company “national distribution” Anna Vovk.
However, first you need to decide on a Bank. So, a potential client should be wary if the Bank resorts to such aggressive methods to attract investors, such as gifts in exchange for opening the Deposit. “We must remember the old worldly truth that free cheese it is known to be taken in the mousetrap. And so when investors are lured something very entertaining, for example the distribution of free phones or something similar, this is the first alarming signal that the case is fishy,” warns in an interview with TV channel the head of the Agency on insurance of contributions Yury Isaev.
But first and foremost, when choosing a financial institution need to read the rate on deposits offered by the credit institution. According to the Bank of Russia, the average maximum rate on ruble deposits for individuals in the 10 largest Russian banks in August amounted to 8.72 per cent. Therefore, rates higher than her by 3-4 percentage points, should cause suspicion among citizens.
“Of course, you first need to pay attention to rates to attract deposits and to focus on the rates of the 10 largest banks. If the contribution to which you are currently targeting very different from those indicators in a big way, then it is an alarming symptom,” explains the head of the DIA Yuri Isaev.
Recall, the average maximum rate on deposits published on the website of the Bank of Russia on the results of monitoring each month.
Experts, however, the bar in the 3-4% call more hard. The fact that the average maximum rate is among the 10 largest domestic banks. Many of them have other sources of income and in attracting public funds simply are not interested. Small credit institutions deposits of individuals are the main way to increase liquidity. Therefore, according to experts, the strap should reach 4.5–5% maximum bet top 10 banks.
In addition, even if banks will somewhat overestimate their capabilities, the Central Bank does not sleep and keeps his ears open. The regulator is now actively monitors unreliable banks. So, the Central Bank may recommend the credit organizations to lower the rate on deposits and limit the size of the borrowed funds. There are also payments to the Deposit insurance Fund. They increase, if the rate is above the weighted average in the banking sector. In other words, the higher the return a Bank promises its depositors, the more he makes contributions to the Fund.
Such rules, according to experts, is justified. As practice shows, insurance that have to pay depositors in the revocation of the licences of insolvent banks, substantial. So, according to the Agency Fitch, in 2013-2015 for the payment of compensation to holders of funds in the banks which have lost the right to implementation of activities, the DIA spent 750 billion rubles. Only this time support and “cleaning up” the banking sector has managed to 3.36 trillion rubles, or about 4% of GDP in 2015.
However, if the client still decided to give their money to a credit institution that offers a high interest rate, in this case, experts advise to make sure that the Bank participates in the Deposit insurance system. We should not keep on Deposit more than 1.4 million rubles — the maximum amount of insurance which can be received by the client upon revocation of the Bank.
What store savings: rubles, euros or dollars?
Meanwhile, the deputies propose to remove the limit on the amount of insurance on deposits. On 12 September the corresponding bill submitted to the Duma. According to the document, to extend the system of insurance of contributions of physical persons it is necessary on all funds on Deposit. Thus, in case of bankruptcy of the credit institution to the depositor should be returned the entire amount of the contribution regardless of its size.
The bill “will create a real mechanism for the protection of all accumulated funds of Russian citizens and to strengthen the legal guarantees of preservation of these funds,” according to developers of the document.
However, the independent experts interviewed by “MK” are skeptical about this initiative. “It is even mathematically not stand up to scrutiny. The entire volume of household deposits in banks is slightly more than 23 trillion rubles, and if we assume that every tenth Bank may lose its license over the next 5 years, then payments will take another 2-3 trillion rubles, which is more 2-3 times than the ASV has already been paid to depositors (about 1 trillion rubles). The volume of own Fund the DIA does not disclose, but we know that the Agency is already actively takes money in the Bank for the payments of own funds is not enough” — says “MK” the General Director of “Mani Fanny” Alexander Shustov.
In addition, insurance of all deposits at 100% creates a feeling of one single state Bank. “Wherever you put your money, it turns out that you would have invested in a state Bank. While commercial banks have their own personality, create competition in the market and move the industry forward. And investing in them should contain a certain amount of risk, according to the laws of market economy, completely risk-free investment does not exist. For example, government bonds of any country, even the United States, carry a microscopic risk of default, and that’s fine. A Deposit is a typical investment tool, the investor should be aware of their risks”, — the expert continues.
Indeed, the deposits — one of the main ways ordinary Russians to increase their savings. And for them now is a complicated situation — official inflation is around 7%. No wonder the citizens are increasingly the question arises where to invest? “Gone are the days when banks offered a rate of return on deposits of 15-20% per year. If you select a top 10 of credit institutions, the return on deposits — 8-9%, but some banks offer only about 6%. Moreover, the risks in banks outside the top 10 are great, even the insurance doesn’t save, there are cases when the data about the opening of the Deposit, generally are not entered into the database, that is fraud. Thus, in a reputable Bank yield below inflation, and in the other there are specific risks,” — says the analyst of ALOR BROKER Kirill Yakovenko.
Meanwhile, on 16 September the Board of Directors of the Central Bank had lowered its key rate, which influences interest rates on deposits and loans. At this time, the regulator dropped from 10.5% to 10% per annum. As explained in the Central Bank, this has allowed a slower pace of price growth. So, by the end of December, inflation is expected to decrease to 5.7% and the following year, and at up to 4%. The change in the key rates are traditionally supposed to influence rates on deposits and loans.
However, the reduction this time was not unexpected. Most experts before the meeting, it is a decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank predicted. Therefore, the independent experts do not expect will soon fall in interest rates on loans
The fact that large banks have played a proactive regulator of the previously lower interest rates. A new movement in this direction can be counted, but only if inflation will suddenly dramatically decrease, which will allow the Central Bank to lower the rate, not next year, but earlier.
However, if the changes will be, a minor. According to experts, the loans may get cheaper not more than 0.5% in the next two months — both for business and for the population.
Will not be a credit institution to reduce rates on deposits, as in the fourth quarter, they traditionally try to increase the portfolio of liabilities. As predicted by independent experts if this year inflation will be 6.5%, the level of interest rates on deposits for individuals will reach 7.5–8.5 percent. And when you consider that next year the Central Bank aims to bring inflation down to 4%, therefore, rates can fall and even up to 5-6%.
Therefore, in such circumstances, experts advise investors not to hold deposits too high hopes and consider them not as a way to earn, but rather how to save money from currency fluctuations.
The experts recommend that Russians are the Golden rule of investor — don’t keep all your eggs in one basket. That is to keep funds, not only in native roubles, but in foreign currency. “To accumulate funds worth at least three currencies, one of which is of rubles”, — tells the General Director of the company “national distribution” Anna Vovk.
It should focus on the structure of their costs. If you plan on buying foreign-made goods, such as a car, it is better to save in foreign currency, choosing the deposits for a longer period of time — from one year and above.