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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The desire of Transnistria to join the Russia only irritate Moscow


Ten years ago the vast majority of residents of Transnistria voted for independence from Moldova and joining Russia. Such a rush, confirmed just a few days ago, warming the hearts of patriots. But this is the case when they confuse bargain PR high politics and historical processes.

The past 10 years ago the referendum on the status and future of Transnistria, because of complexity into the set of issues called in different ways – depending on the momentary situation. In most cases, it is usually called “referendum on independence” because the first part of the first question was: “do You Support a course on independence of Dnestr Moldavian Republic…”. However, in periods of acute political struggle in Transnistria and at the peak of economic crisis, the plebiscite turns into a “referendum on joining Russia” as the second part of the question was worded: “…and the subsequent free joining of Transnistria to the Russian Federation.

“The only real reason for resumption of hostilities or to launch a real process of integration with Russia could be a change in the status of Moldova. For example, its Union with Romania”

Thus, to clearly say what exactly ten years ago voted 97.1% of Transnistrians, is quite difficult In principle, for the independence of Transnistria from Moldova have already voted in the referendum of 1 December 1991 (97,7% with a turnout of 78%). Indirectly, the independence of PMR was confirmed by the results of the referendum on 24 December 1995, when it adopted the Constitution of the Republic, which declared its independence of Transnistria as a subject of international law. It is believed that in 2006-m to year so wonderful formulated the first question was how to emphasize the second question on the same referendum, and to designate alternative: “do You Think it possible the refusal of independence of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic with the subsequent occurrence in structure of Moldova?”. Classical antithesis, and 97.1% of those who came to the vote of the inhabitants of Transnistria Kisheneva said “no.”

And now, for the anniversary of the plebiscite which the President Igor Shevchuk unexpectedly signed a decree “pursuant to the outcome of the Republican referendum”. Among the main tasks the document outlines the alignment of legal system of the Republic in accordance with Russian law. The government must within two weeks to create for this special Commission, and by November 1 to submit a plan synchronization.

The state Duma in 2006, the results of the referendum in Transnistria to be recognized as legitimate, the Kremlin and the Executive authorities of the Russian Federation has reacted more moderately. The Russian foreign Ministry, for example, urged not to consider the Transnistrian referendum as an attempt to destabilize the situation in the region and expressed in that spirit that “this is another reason to sit down at the negotiating table”.

Before the reunification of the Crimea with Russia on the referendum very few people remembered. Yes, the then President of the PMR Igor Smirnov said that the referendum PMR can be part of the Russian Federation, but somehow unconvincing. Yes, I created a “special Commission”, something that coordinated, but then died down and it. Up until 18 March 2014 the speaker of Parliament of PMR Mikhail Burla, wrote a letter to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, in which he asked to consider becoming a part of Russia is not only Crimea, but some “other foreign countries”. A month later, the Supreme Council of Transnistria has asked Russia, but at the same time somehow to OSCE with the request of formal recognition of Transnistria. Both letters remained unanswered and even without comments of officials. furthermore, no “simplified adoption in the Russian Federation new constituent entities” were not created, although extremely tedious discussion about it one time held.

Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov also actually shrugged from the Shevchuk’s decree, as “it is not clear what the basis for such action” (the signing of the decree). And from a legal point of view he is absolutely right because the referendum in Transnistria does not oblige Moscow to comply with its results, or even comment on them. Officials of the PMR in this case refer not only to the numbers of 2006, but the spring of some opinion polls, which allegedly showed that residents of Transnistria want to become citizens of the Russian Federation. This course is designed to externally replicate the situation in Crimea, but in fact looks like an attempt to put pressure on the Kremlin, and behind the walls of the largest defensive fortresses in Europe, this is not love. Lately – especially. No wonder Putin called the events “an initiative Shevchuk”. The President of the PMR many would be after such formulation was nervous. Moreover, Igor Shevchuk and without having a lot of problems.

So for December, presidential elections were scheduled, and the chances Shevchuk again to win the mixed. A “join Russia” – a trendy topic after the success in the parliamentary elections in South Ossetia party “United Ossetia” in Transnistria, apparently, considered a lifeline. In Tiraspol remember that the referendum a decade ago held the same day as the presidential election, and virtually guaranteed Igor Smirnov re-election. In the same year 2006, exactly the same action was made by the then President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity in November presidential elections in Tskhinvali were combined with the referendum on independence of South Ossetia. Independence, of course, has been confirmed and Kokoity was reelected for a second term. However, in contrast, Igor Smirnov, Kokoity was at the time extremely popular, and a referendum was required for further confirmation of the policy of independence in the face of increasing pressure from the Georgian side.

Unrecognized and partially recognized gosudarstva fashion now even conspiracy theory that the Kremlin manipulates all that happens on the planet, including the behavior of hackers, the US election and ocean tides, to say nothing of legislative acts of the Transnistrian President. In the framework of this model of cosmogony someone in the Kremlin demanded Shevchuk just in time for the tenth anniversary show of “strengthening the spirit of cooperation”, which should be reflected in the harmonization of legislation. Many is really ready to believe, given the, well, unusual (sometimes with elements of hysteria) demeanor of some of the relevant officials in Moscow in relation to the recognized or partially recognized republics. But it remains a geographical reality in which Transnistria has no common border with Russia and come to Russia only after the first nuclear explosion world war III, or another precarious turn of events, among which the most promising can be considered an invasion of aliens (and the evil; the invasion of the friendly aliens doesn’t guarantee anything). Has not been canceled and the economic crisis in Transnistria, caused not so much by events in Ukraine, how many weird policies of the government Shevchuk. In turn, the crisis has given rise to protests, to cope with which flooded the Tiraspol PR considered possible with the help of lying on the surface of the slogan of “integration with Russia”.

In General, if you do not want to get into more ancient history, the last 15 years distant and unknown until the end of Transnistria remained on the sidelines of Russian foreign policy – for it is “looked after” rather random people with a set of rather exotic methods. Sometimes it was outright scams, and Ukrainian origin. Some of them are simultaneously lit up and scandalous elections in the same South Ossetia in 2011-12 – hence the similarity of the slogans. In a deeply provincial, information isolated in Tiraspol and Tskhinvali, the influence of polished young people rolling in professional terms, unfortunately, is very large. They get the “service contracts” of the campaign, and there though the grass not to grow. Even worse, if they manage to gain a foothold on the occupied territories. Especially suffers from this “election occupation Tiraspol, the political elite which is almost narcotic-dependent like the characters. And have scratch, exactly to the anniversary of provoking such is the decree it is in their style. Moreover, Tskhinvali for Shevchuk – almost not a role model, he goes there almost more frequently than in Moscow, and is sometimes the only foreign guest at different kinds of celebrations.

Big politics in all of this – zero point zero. Even Chisinau responded to the decree by Transnistrian President openly sluggish and only because he could not remain silent under the laws of the genre. The Moldovan government (unlike Transnistrian) no illusions about “entering Russia” does not nourish, and communication with Tiraspol there is quite successfully carrying on the relevant agencies – the Bureau for reintegration, to develop their own methods of verbal mimicry to avoid clear language in public documents. To blow up the situation in the region similar decrees Shevchuk also can’t. Even Ukraine couldn’t do it. The only real reason for resumption of hostilities or to launch a real process of integration with Russia could be a change in the status of Moldova. For example, its Union with Romania. But this scenario is not more likely than the arrival of aliens.

Tiraspol time to learn important things: Moscow is very sensitive to attempts unexpected “initiatives” that destroys built her system of foreign policy vectors. Expect to Tiraspol now was coming true nukers of Vladimir Putin, is also useless. System policy analysis in the post-Soviet space is still not built, blurred complex and organizationally fragmented. Homeland stubbornly sends to this site its best sons, and the favoritism is normal. Recent attempts to affect the internal political situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia has not brought anything good, much simply ruined. And Transnistria further insight processes is skewed, b is preferable to only monitor the status of the peacekeeping forces, because for everyone else to follow does not work. Here and throws the owners of the Moscow specialized classrooms from the concept of “total control”, from which local sometimes the taking aback to depressive fatigue under the slogan “suppose they want to do – their fate; pour”. In Transnistria, where much rests on domestic politics, nepotism and complicated economic schemes, in such circumstances, nothing productive will not develop. And there’s always a reason to believe that it will be even worse.

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