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Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Moldova has predicted the fate of the new “hot spot”

The Secretary General of the Council of Europe Moldova predicted a sad fate – whether social unrest, or civil war. Named the culprit: the current Pro-European leadership of the country. The official uses a surprisingly friendly tone towards Russia and Transnistria. What is this change of sentiment, and whether or not Moldova is threatened by war?

Published in The New York Times article Secretary General of the Council of Europe thorbjørn Jagland to “return to Moldova with the edge of the abyss” perfectly and place of publication, and title of the author, and the points that he makes.

“It captured the state should return to its citizens”, concludes the Secretary General of the Council of Europe”

The basic idea formulated in the first paragraph: “the Republic of Moldova, a tiny country with a population of 3.5 million people at risk of becoming the next European security crisis – with implications reaching far beyond its borders.

Jagland further develops his idea, which may seem surprising from a European official, for the official Ukrainian and did the unthinkable. It turns out that the main risk for Moldova is not in “Imperial Russia” and not the existence of the Pro-Russian Transnistria (the word “Transnistria” only appears in the eighth paragraph, just as a tribute to geography). In the tenth paragraph, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe is even writing anything to it – in other conditions and entry to Ukraine could close. Duty calling the reunification of the Crimea with Russia “illegal annexation”, Jagland said: “We must never forget that the crisis in Ukraine began with the complete disenchantment of citizens with political institutions.” That is wrong in the Ukrainian problems still not Russia.

Corruption and General frustration of the population Jagland believes the main threat for Moldova. “Pro-European” government has been in power for six years, the citizens of the Republic is what the Ukrainians can only dream of, – visa-free entry into the EU, but the institutions and the economy remain closed and corruption – prohibitive.

If not taken prompt action is threatened, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, the situation could spiral out of control. And the presence of the frozen Transnistrian issue in this situation may provoke an armed conflict, said Jagland.

“Despite years of disappointments, many Moldovans still have high hopes for their country. They believe that, freed from corruption, it will be able to transform. But first, it captured the state should return to its citizens”, concludes the Secretary General of the Council of Europe.

A warning or a threat

The content of the article, despite its moderate sensationalism and surprisingly peaceful tone against Russia is not all of what you should pay attention. Formally addressed to the citizens of Moldova article published in The New York Times, one of the most widely read American Newspapers, and not in the European and the Moldovan edition. The impression that the addressee of his text thorbjørn Jagland sees the first Obama administration, and not someone else.

On the question of why it was chosen by the American newspaper, there are two contradictory answers. Either the Secretary General of the Council of Europe is aware of the plan to intensify American pressure on the region – and his article, he wants to warn US from the creation of new “hot spots” in Europe in a situation when it is unclear what to do with old. Or his article, on the contrary, a call to action and a call to the state Department by any means to return seized by corrupt officials, the Moldovan government for the citizens of Moldova.

What happened in all previous cases, when the United States decided to “help” the citizens of any country to liberate themselves from corrupt or recognized “anti-people” for any other reason the authorities – is well known. Collapse, collapse of statehood thousands of victims.

On the one hand, it is unlikely that the Council of Europe need another destroyed statehood near its borders, and from this point of view the article is more likely to be regarded as a warning. On the other – that Jagland as the head of the Norwegian Nobel Committee “selling” the decisions to award the peace prize to the European Union and US President Barack Obama. He may well assume that getting rid of corruption can cost thousands of human lives.

In any case, and Moldova, and Transnistria, and Russia as a country-guarantor of the Transnistrian settlement must relate to the Secretary General of the Council of Europe seriously. The policy is in the style of “go for you” is not so common in the modern world and the openness of thorbjørn Jagland, should be assessed accordingly.

“Black label” as the reason for cooperation

For the Moldovan authorities article Secretary General of the Council of Europe – a definite black mark regardless of whether he is trying to warn about the risk of “Maidan in Chisinau” or calling this the Maidan. In fact, Jagland has accused the Republic’s leadership is not simply the inability to cope with corruption, and that it itself is deeply corrupt. It is known that similar charges in recent years have no territorial borders, and this means that any Moldovan head can be arrested in any European country, and then issued in the USA. Not the rosy Outlook.

The tone of the article in relation to Transnistria, on the contrary, quite reasonable and balanced. No long-hackneyed incantations about the “black hole”, “the stronghold of smugglers,” “heavily armed Pro-Russian enclave” and the like. Perhaps it is a signal of the current Transnistrian leadership to pursue a balanced policy without the harsh statements and actions, which the President Yevgeny Shevchuk spends the last years. Of course, it is possible that Jagland just decided not to mix in one article a few topics. But, whatever it was, the riots in Chisinau did not need to Tiraspol. With a democratically elected government, no matter how “Pro-European” it was always easier to agree than came to power in a revolution junta. The Transnistrian card in any case will trump in Moldova, and it is not necessary to give radical nationalists and “hawks” excessive activity.

As to Russia, for her article, Jagland is also important unexpectedly peaceful tone, but to think that the Council of Europe agree somewhere to “retreat” or “compromise”, of course, should not be. European official says, in General, the obvious fact that without Russia to solve the problem of Moldova is impossible, as Ukraine’s problems. Thus, the “black mark” for the Moldovan authorities can turn into a reason for joint consultations about the situation in the country, and also to resume a normal dialogue on the Transnistrian issue, without shapkozakidatelskih statements of Romania and Ukraine’s readiness “to solve the problem in a short time.

In addition, threats Jagland, the Moldovan authorities may well make more negotiability in relation to Moscow the President of Moldova Nicolae Timofti and Prime Minister Valeriu strelet, already announced in early August about the need to “reset relations”.

But this option is possible and that threatens the current government of Moldova article Secretary General of the Council of Europe is the response to the initiative of Sagittarius. Precedents, when, in response to the attempts of rapprochement with Russia who was accused of corruption, has happened repeatedly.

The only unrealistic thing is to assume that the article Jagland is simply an exercise in belles-lettres. The officials of this level just because of the keyboard do not sit down. In Moldova in the near future there will be something of importance to European security as a whole. Forewarned is forearmed.


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