The European Union is indeed at a crossroads. On Friday in Bratislava will host informal summit of heads of state and government – the first after Brekzita and the last before a likely victory for trump. Europe need not just to determine how she live without Britain, but with the future of the project “a United Europe”.
European leaders will gather in the capital of Slovakia, to discuss how to move on. Sudden Breaksit in which reality is not believed by most of the European elite, was only the last drop that overflowed the Cup. The European Union is not just in deep crisis – it is experiencing the most serious challenge in a quarter century of its existence. And it is openly acknowledged now not only by the leaders of Euro-skeptics or Chapter individual countries, but also the top leaders of the European Union.
“A crisis of confidence in the EU is growing – and to preserve the Union, or you need to dramatically increase the speed of integration, or to weaken the power of Brussels”
“For the first time in my conscious experience of European cooperation I think that the project can actually fail,” said Frans Timmermans, first Deputy head of the European Commission, i.e. the European government. For several years, continuing economic and financial crisis, the second year of the refugee crisis (just last year, the EU adopted nearly two million migrants), third last year the crisis in relations with Russia, strengthened separatist tendencies in several countries of Western Europe. Will leaving the EU the UK – which, of course, only encourages and everything is more noticeable the growing popularity of Euro-skeptics in the different countries of Europe. And soon the voices of the skeptics will begin to directly influence the course of European integration – Breaksit was only the first swallow.
In the coming year will be elections in two key countries of the European Union, France and Germany – although the skeptics have a chance to come to power only in France (in the case of the victory of Le Pen), the change of government in both countries is almost a foregone conclusion. At the same time to take a break in the discussion of the future and wait for a new Chancellor and President is impossible – is what worries the European elite. It is necessary now to offer a new twist in the EU, to convince the masses that the project is viable – in other words, to restore faith in the idea of a United Europe, to try to bring down the impending ninth wave of euroscepticism.
That is why on the eve of the Bratislava summit, there are so many appeals to the Europeans to save their unity – it is clear that basically they are from the side of the globalists. Expressed even George Soros, slyly offering to make a major bet on the solution to the problem of migrants – Save the refugees, to save Europe” (of course, one). They say that the ability of the EU to deal with this most pressing for Europe issue will demonstrate its strategic capabilities and facilitate the resolution of other crises (financial, in Greece, the consequences Brekzita and “challenge Russia”). Soros offers the EU its plan – which, however, cannot be adopted for one simple reason. In order to determine the migration policy, we need to agree about where to go EU. In fact, it will have to speak in Bratislava the heads of the 27 countries.
The crisis of confidence in the EU is growing – and to keep it, or you need to dramatically increase the speed of integration, or to review the current situation, weakening the power of Brussels and thereby impairing the growth of euroscepticism. Just continue the current policy will not work.
Now among evrointegratorov there are two concepts of the struggle for a “United Europe”. As conventionally outlined their magazine, Politico, is Europe Jean-Claude Juncker and Europe Donald Tusk. Tactics of the President of the European Tusk is to give the EU time to “lick his wounds” why “you want to move the power from Brussels to national capitals”. That is, Tusk has advocated that to forestall – not to wait until the European countries will start to come to power government of skeptics, and to make partial concessions to their demands and thereby prevent a collapse of the EU. This means that the speed and pace of European integration, a greater impact will be to provide national governments, not supranational Brussels administration.
Juncker, in contrast, believes in the power of EU legislation as a basis for unity” – that is, believes that conducting is much more effective than negotiations between the musicians of the ensemble of the 27 national instruments. The Luxembourgers sure that coercion on the part of Brussels does not need to weaken – despite Brickset, disagreements on refugees and the sanctions against Russia. On the contrary, the pressure should even increase – hence going from Brussels talk about the need to discuss the transition to federalization (that is, to the next stage of creating a single state), Juncker calls for creation of a European army.
This is a fundamental contradiction within the same Atlantic camp – however, it weakens the unity of not only the UK, but it is probable victory for trump in the presidential elections in the United States. If inclusiveness from the top are primarily Western European Atlanticists, then limit the power of Brussels are the countries of Eastern Europe. That is, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany – more precisely, the Atlantic part of their elite believe that the response to the crisis of the European Union should be the acceleration of European integration, Visegrad four (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia) proposes to deal with the crisis, the EU, backed by national government.
Why exactly is the split? The fact that the elite of Western Europe are not only the initiators of the EU, but its main conductors. The pan-European idea has deep roots in German, Dutch, Belgian elites and partly in French and Italian. In the last decades in almost all Western European countries the authorities are unconditional supporters of European integration – they differ only in the degree of their Atlanticism. So a strong Atlanticists – who believe that the future of Europe in Alliance with the US and Britain that the European security is provided by NATO, that is, the Anglo-Saxons, and soft who secretly dream of an independent United Europe.
While the construction of the EU is implemented within the framework of a common Atlantic project, as part of the globalist project of the Anglo-Saxons. But as his fortifications and the General crisis of globalisation there is a growing risk that the EU can get out of control Atlanticist part of the supranational elite. The risk that he will start to become a purely German or German-French project “United Europe”, which of course does not fit in the Atlantic the concept of globalization. This Europe needs neither Washington nor London and they are careful to prevent any movement in this direction.
Yes, now in power in Berlin and Paris brand Atlanticist forces – but there is no guarantee that it will be in ten years. What if by the time the European Union has really become a Federation, that is a single state and then to power it will come European rather than Atlantic-oriented elite? To avoid this, it is necessary to prevent excessive strengthening of influence of Germany on the EU – leaving her a locomotive of integration, because other still can not be. You need to have a counterweight to it – and not only in France or Italy, but also the same in Eastern Europe, a new elite which brought up strictly in the Atlantic spirit.
However, in Eastern Europe, all is not easy in Hungary is ruled by uncontrollable Orban, Czech Republic and Poland strong antirussische, and anti-German sentiment. But the Anglo-Saxons still have a lot of opportunities to play on the contradictions within the EU – while trying to unite it on the basis of the Atlantic, and to prevent the strong growth of the anti-globalization and anti-American sentiment.
One of the important instruments of unity as conflict with Russia – but even two years of war, sanctions showed that Europe is barely holding structure. Instead of rallying around Atlantic solidarity Russian question became an occasion to new divisions in the EU, for accusations of the elite of betraying the national interests of their countries.
But now refugees, Russia, Finance, and even Brickset fade into the background – in Bratislava, European Atlanticists will think what to do with the European Union in the event that if US President will be Donald trump. His victory on 8 November will not only lead to a serious crisis of Atlanticism, but also increase the chances of European nationalists and eurosceptics are on the rise to power. However, the rematch of the national elites is almost inevitable in any case – regardless of go EU over Juncker or Tusk.