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Friday, October 28, 2016

Putin was lucky: the CIS do not consider the Russian Crimea, but keep quiet

After the rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Nikolai Doroshenko about the rights of Moscow to preside in CIS in 2017, “MK” decided to find out from the experts what would happen if at the time, Kiev has ratified all the necessary documents.

photo: kremlin.ru

Konstantin ZATULIN, head of the Institute of CIS countries:

– The statement of the Ambassador of Ukraine in Kyrgyzstan proves once again that Kyiv became a full member of the anti-Russian front. As you know, CIS, I try not to focus on ownership of the Crimea, in order not to complicate its relations with Russia. There is no doubt that all members of the Commonwealth, with the exception of Armenia, nervously perceive this story, because they themselves have similar problems and afraid of detonation. Azerbaijan about Karabakh, Moldova – Transnistria, Kazakhstan – for the Northern and Eastern regions, the Russian-speaking population which is committed to their historic homeland, and so on. Most outlined the position on this issue, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. He believes that Crimea belongs to Russia, but it happened only because Kiev was not his to defend, therefore, if Moscow will impose their claims on the part of the Belarusian territory, the old man will personally jump into the trench with a gun. Other post-Soviet republics in conversation with Ukraine is usually to recognize its integrity, and with Russia moving away from the topic. In turn, Moscow does things rationally and requires from them a Declaration of love and fidelity, so as not to overstrain relations, which in many cases are dashed.

Doroshenko wanted to provoke a scandal, but chose a very bad moment, as the summit is being held in one of those republics, where the traditions of respect for elders take precedence over everything else. It is impossible to imagine that, based on statements by the Ambassador, the President of Russia would have been forced to openly abandon the presidency in the CIS for 2017. In addition, even if at the time Kiev ratified the CIS Charter, and Crimea would still be Russian, September 16, 2016, nothing would have happened. The leaders of the countries of the Commonwealth perceive the CIS as a form of Russian presence in this space. And if they go to a session like this, only in order to improve its relations with Moscow. In order to challenge it, they would have found a format.

Vadim KARASEV, the head of the Ukrainian Institute of global strategies:

– Ukraine from the very beginning went the way of associated membership in the CIS and did not ratify the Charter of the organization. If she became a member of the Commonwealth, today had been an ordinary post-Soviet Republic, focused on the Customs Union, not an Association with Europe. But Kiev chose the way that led him to what we have. Modern Ukrainian diplomacy is to raise the question about the occupation of Crimea and Russian aggression in the Donbas at every opportunity. There is no doubt that Doroshenko coordinated his speech with the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.

Officially, the members of the CIS do not support Ukraine, but all sympathize with her. Even Belarus and Kazakhstan do not recognize the Russian Crimea. Their silence on this issue means a lot. The redrawing of borders in post-Soviet space is a very unpleasant surprise for them. If you imagine that Ukraine would have ratified the CIS Charter, the present statement of the Ambassador would make a confusion in the meeting of the Commonwealth summit. Probably would have started the debate about Russia’s right to chair the organization in 2017 and the one who could replace her in this position. However, I don’t think it would be a big scandal with far-reaching consequences, but the sediment remained.


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