An unexpectedly large number of those arrested before the elections, high corruption (fresh, – plus EUR 300 million discovered in Swiss Bank accounts of Colonel billionaire Dmitry Zakharchenko) raises more questions than answers. Is the rating of the ruling party is so bad that without a demonstration of planting just before the election it is impossible to secure a convincing majority in Parliament? No, of course. Possible. But not so much due to the party lists, but because of odnomandatniki. In fact, for this was started a change in the law with the return of “mazhoritarka” to insure for the likely problems in the domestic economy. Another question is how strong the dependence of the Pro-government mandate from the Federal government? After all, the majoritarian first fled to sell their power at the time still the boss in the situation of the revolutionary force majeure in one close to us recently country.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
But the main problem is not this – how to explain to the voter the preservation of the majority in the Duma for the party in power in the face of falling public confidence in it? For this just and necessary “trastovye” of history, forcing the electorate to once again “rally” in the face of external (and internal) threats.
Statements of experts carefully prepared the voter to preserve the “status quo” of four parties (United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, “Fair Russia”) in Parliament with a small and extremely questionable change is the relocation of the second and third forces. With persistent spontaneity we once again (as before the last Duma elections) are trying to convince that the party, led by a professional clown-chauvinist, contrary to popular rejection in national republics and some time on the Ural can take second place in the overall standings. But the essence is the expected after 18 September, change is not even that.
The Duma elections, by and large, the campaign offers training to the presidential election. According to the Constitution (on the basis of the extended 6-year presidential term) they are scheduled for March 2018. But it is impossible to exclude the fact that they can be a little earlier – in a single election day (the third Sunday of September) already in 2017. New elections, in the apt words of Vladimir Putin, one of the “young, but Mature of the President” needs to begin with a campaign of supporters of the “fourth period” (2017/2018-2023/2024). And now the big question: who narboroughi (more) officials willing to be the backbone of the supporters?
The President is forced to go to a serious reshuffle, because he sees the obvious – many of the dedicated and proven over the years of joint work colleagues corny do not. It is not so much evident in the period of oil price boom. But in the face of increasing economic decline to endure the total incompetence and blatant incompetence of the performers, it becomes dangerous for the President’s popularity rating. Given the fact that the current political system can be called sociological democracy (where the key decisions the authorities prefer to know the opinion of the population), we see that in the special operation mode change unexpectedly envoys and governors, and the replacement of the head of the presidential Administration touted as almost a technical question. A new generation grown system technocrats are preparing to make one of the pillars of the “fourth period” of the President. But will they suffice?
Our eyes – more and more – there is a gap former post-Yeltsin elite with Putin. For obvious reasons, the President cannot be trusted. In particular, because he knows it is a dubious history of its origin. Put very simply, for the most part, it is the “party pipe” – a community of people from business, oriented on export of Russian natural resources to the West. In the recent past, “the Parmesan in the civil service, they formally adopted a new political reality after the return of the Crimea. But because of the natural contradictions of their own business interests in the West (not to mention the volunteer force abandoned Villa somewhere on Lasource”), they may not be natural supporters of the new Putin’s policy postkrymsky. Therefore, they will have to change. These elections – a good reason to do it.
Look what a large percentage of big businessmen – representatives of regional clans was forced to leave the high places in the lists of the major parties before the election. Here, the owner of a major investment campaign, the owner of the 500-meter estate in Congo Mikhail Slipenchuk, founder of Moscow’s most famous car dealer, one of the sponsors of “belolentochnye” protests, Sergei Petrov, and one of the main exporters of Russian steel abroad Boris Zubitsky. The list goes on. Do these and similar people can be the “party of the fourth period”?
The real line of confrontation in this election is between the “party tubes” and “party machine”. The result of the expression can become, to paraphrase a famous movie Govorukhin, “the end of the oligarchic era.” After all, the oligarchs – not like Khodorkovsky forgotten, but very real, large regional dealers, the business controlling the whole regions, was for decades the interests of many actors in the legislature of the country. Now this era is over. They are replaced by the representatives of wage labor “party machine”: the manufacturers, the lobbyists of the interests of the defense industry and of industry, science and agriculture, education and culture. Not business-oriented and socially motivated members not to represent itself outside of its sphere and its interests. They can soon become the “party of the fourth term” – the only problem is that the ruling party at the moment, a minority. So, you will have to look for them in opposition. Learn to listen to alternative points of view, to consult, to share power, to delegate responsibility – in short, to do everything that is not peculiar to the current officials.
In recent history Russia has been such an example – when after a default and the consequent economic crisis of 1998, Boris Yeltsin was forced to create narodonaselenie the government headed by Yevgeny Primakov and Yuri Maslyukov, the representative at that time very opposition of the Communist party. Today, on the basis of the deteriorating economic situation, we are close to repeating history.
Otherwise, bring the country out of a deepening crisis have been the next power.