The scandal surrounding the leak of a secret script of the “hybrid war” in North-East Estonia seem to have been a combination of local intelligence. Apparently, the leak made just for yourself the special services, trying to knock myself larger budgets. The report is seriously considering the residents of one of the Estonian regions as potential terrorists just because of their ethnic origin.
In the Estonian print on Wednesday leaked a secret memo of a government safety Commission. The document was submitted to the government in August last year, but was made public only now. The authors warn about the threat of “Donbass scenario” in the North-East of the country, in the County of IDA-Virumaa, where about 150 thousand people. The County with the capital in Narva is located in North-East Estonia borders Russia, and the vast majority are Russian-speaking residents, representatives of the titular nation there is not more than 20 percent.
“And I’m afraid that now can this way artificially prepared provocation against the Russian-speaking population and Pro-Russian politicians”
“I will not be able to control the situation”
The author of the report was the so-called government adviser on psychological protection of Ilmar Raag, who claimed that in the event of a conflict, “we will not be able to control the situation in the cities of IDA-Viru County”. According to the text, he fears not the invasion of the Russian army, and “hybrid war” – Raag writes that the unrest could provoke even a network of around 200 “local terrorists.” According to him, in IDA-Virumaa passively support a conflict ready half local Russian – that is 60,000 people and 1,500 possible active participants of the conflict.
As Sputnik reports, the note indicated that the “explosion” in the region can be triggered by dysfunctional social situation of the inhabitants, of which only one-fifth of Estonians, and in large cities even less – only 5%. This County has the highest unemployment and crime. The majority of residents are loyal to Russia and negatively – to the United States and NATO. Guarantee of safety they call a good relationship with Russia, and one in three believes that Russia has the right to protect their compatriots on the territory of the former USSR.
According to the Estonian insurance funds against unemployment, in August of this year the number of unemployed in the County decreased over the month by half a percentage point and amounted to 9.9%. Nevertheless, this indicator remains the highest in the country. For IDA-Viru County, Valga County follows with unemployment at 8%.
The leaked report caused a scandal. The publication Eesti Ekspress, the head of the police and border guard Board of Estonia Elmar wager confirmed that his Department worked through the scenario of having “little green men”. Specialist in strategic communications of the Security police of Estonia (KAPO) Raul Rebane said that the Memorandum does not “far-fetched” and it is written about the potential dangers. However, the head of the branch of Capo in the Narva Calle Yanes cheerfully reported that the “IDA-Virumaa no Donbass will not.
MP from the faction of the freedom party Andres Ammas in conversation with BNS has reminded that the governmental Commission on the security is considered to be a narrow range that includes only the Prime Minister and heads of key agencies: the Ministry of justice, Ministry of defense, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of interior and Ministry of foreign Affairs, however, a document leaked to the press. “There are serious doubts about the honesty and loyalty to the state individual members of the Commission, said Ammas. Is a schizophrenic situation in which the members of the working together of the teams and then each other betray”.
Ammas stressed that notes should be that the government considers the residents of IDA-Virumaa potential terrorists and planned repression. “If members of the government will continue (the leaked documents), they are a danger to the Estonian state,” he said.
Just a fight for the budget
Member of Parliament elected, in fact, from the County IDA-Virumaa, Michael stalnuhin (fraction of centrists) noted that in Estonia the authors of the report, many have called paranoid. Stalnuhin saw in that report a complete misunderstanding of the situation. “Actually, neither one of those conditions that eventually led to the situation in Northern Ireland and especially to the occurrence of DND and LNR, in the County of IDA-Virumaa there. And there are plenty of organizations who make the “Russian threat”. It’s like a cat, which fed in that case, if there is a mouse in the house. If no mice, but the budget money is needed, the cat comes up with them. So they regularly stir up the atmosphere around an imaginary Russian threat”, – the Deputy told the newspaper VIEW.
In his view, the thesis that unemployment is fueling Pro-Russian sentiments, is fundamentally wrong. “In fact, a significant part of the population, with both the Estonian and the “gray” passports, has the right to freely travel to Europe. There is a massive departure for seasonal work in Finland, Sweden, Germany, UK. Indeed, in Estonia in General and in the North-East in particular there are problems with wages and unemployment, but most prefer to go to work and not create a terrorist organization or to demand joining Russia”, – he explained.
The MP is concerned that a similar “leak” published in the spring of 2007, when on the agenda there was a question about the transfer of the Bronze soldier. “Then the society is also scared of the Russian threat and the loss of sovereignty. And I’m afraid that now can this way artificially prepared provocation against the Russian-speaking population and Pro-Russian politicians,” says stalnuhin.
In conversation with Delfi editor in chief of “the Narva newspaper” Sergey Stepanov, who lives in the region for almost 50 years, assured that any attempt to secede from Estonia and he does not notice. In his view, analysts of special services in each state from time to time to calculate all possible scenarios and write about this memoranda. The published report, he called the same “old dusty document.”
The head of the parliamentary Committee on defense Marko Mihkelson from the faction of conservatives do not agree with the “dramatic findings” of the report because personally aware of the situation in the area and sees no reason to compare it with that formed in the spring of 2014 in the South-East of Ukraine. “This is a working document. Any agencies that deal with security, of course, played different scenarios. This is a view of one person, but I have a different view,” said Marko Mihkelson newspaper VIEW.
However, according to him, in Tallinn do not exclude attempts of foreign forces “to provoke”, and “in principle, it is possible to do in any places”. “Provocation is provocation. But the state system and the system of social sphere compared with those conditions that, for example, has developed in the Donbass. I don’t see any connections,” he said. He added that social problems are, for example, in the neighboring Pskov and Leningrad regions of Russia, and “it’s normal that on the outskirts there is the problem of employment”.
We will remind, earlier the President of Russia Vladimir Putin said that Russia has conducted and will conduct absolutely peaceful foreign policy aimed at cooperation. The head of state has described as “nonsense” any speculation on the theme of conflict between Moscow and NATO, including on the territory of the Baltic States.