On the night of September 15 the IMF has provided Ukraine with $ 1 billion. For Kiev, it is the fifth loan, which he will be allowed to repay foreign debt and maintain the exchange rate of the hryvnia. Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman called tranche a sign of restoring confidence in the country. IMF chief Christine Lagarde also believes that the money is spent knowingly: the banking system is the Square comes to life, and inflation is reduced. However, Ukrainian experts do not share the enthusiasm of politicians.
After the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine received a double tranche of the IMF in 2014 (of 3.19 and 1.39 billion) and twice in 2015 (5 and 1.7 billion dollars). Formally, the West wants Ukraine, the money went to the deep democratic reforms, but in practice Kiev needs to privatize state-owned enterprises, to raise the retirement age and reduce social expenses in the state budget. Moreover, because of the war in the Donbas and trade confrontation with Russia economy is falling Square in the eyes, so loans go almost entirely to support the exchange rate of the hryvnia.
For the same purpose, should go the current tranche, and the Ukrainians were hoping to get $ 1.7 billion, but due to a change of government in early 2016 that have occurred including from-for discontent of the IMF reforms in the Ukraine and numerous charges in the incredible level of corruption, the first talks frozen, and then cut the amount to 1 billion
If the IMF refused to Kiev in the next money transfer, followed by Ukraine would have lost the promised loans USA, EU and the world Bank for energy projects worth 2.1 billion dollars. But at this time there, and now the Ukrainian authorities hope that by the end of the year, the IMF will provide them another $ 1.3 billion.
As for the “exit from the crisis,” Lagarde declared, following the results of 2015 inflation in Ukraine was 43.3%, and GDP fell by 9.9%, according to state statistics service of the Republic. Thus, according to the national Bank, at the end of 2016 inflation will be approximately 12%, but the price for electricity rose by 80%, gasoline price increased by 13%, vodka and cigarettes were worth 19% more and so on. That is the real level of inflation can be easily increased several times.
Here’s an example of Ukrainian economic strategy: cut all ties with Moscow, to lose out on that $ 15 billion, and then to beg from the West penny. As a result of external debt of Ukraine as of 15 September amounted to 68 billion dollars, which will one day have to return. “MK” has found out from experts, what counts Kiev.
Denis DENISOV, the head of the Ukrainian branch of the CIS Institute:
— Ukraine has fallen into the trap of the IMF due to ill-conceived economic policies of the now former Prime Minister-the Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. In principle, Kiev would cope with their problems if privatized part of the state property at market prices. But as the ruling elite continues to steal the auction business with corrupt schemes go for half price. For example, the Odessa port plant sell for $ 150 million, although in 2008 it was almost sold for $ 1 billion, and even this figure was considered low. Therefore, in order to patch budget holes, Kiev forced to take foreign loans. To repay the external debt of Ukraine again will have due to the sale of their property. Do not be surprised if in a few years the Ukrainian railway for a penny will come under control of foreign firms.
Konstantin BONDARENKO, head of the Fund “Ukrainian politics”:
— Many believe that the Ukrainian government to plunder foreign loans, and to return their accounts to the ordinary people. However, the IMF is watching closely how the money is spent, and he would not have to allocate the next tranche, if I was not confident that the money will be spent as intended. Meanwhile, the new loan will strengthen the hryvnia, and the payment of foreign debt, which increases every time we borrow. No one in Ukraine does not understand how the country will emerge from this vicious circle. We destroyed the entire industry, we have lost customs duties on the Western border and coal mining in the Donbas… Despite this, Kiev is trying to present getting money from foreign organizations as a political victory, but it is unlikely that in this someone believes.