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Monday, October 24, 2016

What is dangerous for Russia “moderate opposition” in Syria

The position of the terrorists who have become the target of Russian operations in Syria, few people care about – Russia is not negotiating with terrorists. However, a series of curses coming from the depths of ISIS and other groups, is to listen. They give an understanding of what future terrorists have in store for Russia and the threat to her those whom the West calls “moderate opposition”.

Over the last three weeks only the lazy analysts who a month ago didn’t even know the name of the leader of ISIS, has not contributed my two cents to the debate about “moderation” radical groups in the area of the Syrian conflict. At the same time, most commentators think either from the point of view of the Russian side, who supports the offensive of the army of Assad, either from the point of the opponents of Russia’s actions in the West. The reaction of the terrorists themselves (including those who successfully characterized Washington as a “moderate opposition”) are practically not taken into account.

“Returning to the statement of the leader “dzhebhat an-Nusra”, it’s hard not to “rhyme” it with the statements of some Russian opposition

On the one hand, on the background of aviation, multiple rocket launchers “Sun” and volleys of the Caspian sea with time for public statements and advocacy work on Twitter militants remains a little. With other operations the Russian VKS serious damage and forces the IG, and scattered terrorist groups, refused to swear allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as a consequence, seriously affected the plans for the future. Cruise missiles have become a powerful catalyst of the internal processes in the environment of terrorist groups, which again reflected on the need to unite.

The merger as a threat

So, in early October, immediately after the beginning of active actions on the part of Russia, 41 grouping in the conflict zone (the famous “dzhebhat an-Nusra” among them was not included) released a statement calling on Muslims to unite in the fight against “Russian aggression”. Later the authenticity of the claim was questioned. This, however, does not negate the fact broadcast opinions that Russia is ready to unite the entire Islamic world. While the IG is in the old tradition stayed away from General statements and slogans, while continuing to adhere to the position “There are two opinions: mine and wrong”.

Obviously, any statements about oaths, associations and coalitions in the context of terrorist groups in the conflict zone is just a piece of propaganda aimed at the international community and Russia. In reality, no one is not going to unite. Moreover, you can’t. “Jaish al-Islam”, “Front EN-Nusra”, “Ahrar al-sham” – the list is endless, but there is virtually no case of the Association of terrorists just in good faith or for a common purpose. Usually the process occurs after the assassination of the leader of one of the factions, or after serious internal conflicts, forcing one of the members of the Kataib move to the other.

The goal of the creators of the “Islamic state”For example, at the end of September, most of the members of al-Kataib Muhajirin”, mainly consisting of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, joined the “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra” and decided to fight with the forces of Assad and the “Islamic state”. The remaining minority group of terrorists, led by Salahuddin al-Shishani (in the world – Georgian Margoshvili) has announced its intention to act independently and only against the forces of Assad. It is noteworthy that Šišan Salahuddin in his statement stressed that his group created on the basis of people from the “Caucasus Emirate”. This in itself can be called a “card” for Moscow, which received an unambiguous hint that the terrorists who blow up houses in Russia, will continue their work and are ready to prove the loyalty of his ideas in fighting with Russian forces in Syria, rejecting conflict with ISIS in the background.

The main counter-offensive Assad’s army, backed by Russian aviation can expect from the terrorists of “Jaish al-Fatah” – “Army of conquest”. According to experts, forty percent of the funding of the army rests on the shoulders of the Saudis and Qataris. With 90 per cent of the “Jaish al-Fath” – it came from “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra” and “Ahrar al-sham”. In fact, it is the most powerful terrorist coalition on the background of the IG, in which (we must not forget) fighting a few thousand immigrants from the Russian thugs.

October 14, appeared in the media reports after the strikes of Russian aviation in the city of HOMS has been eliminated to a large group of fighters of “Ahrar al-sham, among whom was Abu Umar al-Shishani, a legendary gunman known as Tarkhan Batirashvili and had time to visit the leader of the half-Syrian terrorist groups. It is noteworthy that before Abu Omar al-shishani swore allegiance to the Islamic state and withdrew from the “al-Kataib Muhajirin”.

Obviously, Abu Umar was in the ranks of the Syrian terrorists, and with the aim pereverbovki leaders of Ahrar al-sham and the incorporation of groups in the “Islamic state”. This new round of fighting ISIS in the minds of the terrorists who are fighting scattered and not subordinate to the IG. It is possible that this process is not in the least been aired and the Russian support to attack Assad. The Islamists believe that though as-that to rectify the situation, only a single coordination as ISIS, and other groups. Naturally, the role of a Prince-consolidator can claim only Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of ISIS. On the background of weakness of the leaders of the disparate groups and successes of Russia in Syria, the majority of gang members are not members of the IG, can really believe in the saving power of Abu Bakr and give the oath to the “Islamic state”.

All unification processes outside the context of this oath is temporary. Besides Abu Bakr, none of the leaders of the terrorist groups on the territory of the conflict failed to achieve the merger or consolidation of its forces under the slogan “for – unions usually take place under the slogan “against.” At the moment the main threat – Russia and the advance of the army of Assad. After this process is complete, a United front of the “army of conquest”, most likely, again will break up into small cataby, most of which will be part of the “Islamic state”. In order to prevent the growing Leviathan under the name ISIS, terrorist groups must be crushed long before you will be able to join its ranks. As a result, Russia needs to intensify the bombing of places of clusters of terrorists. In this case, before the IG can get only the individual worn the gang, but not combat-ready groups, well armed and equipped.

Preemptive strike

In General, the reaction of the fighters on today’s actions of Russia is panic and desire urgently to regroup our forces. In ideological terms this process resulted in the fact that the preachers of terrorists has gained wide space for speculation. If earlier the main enemy in the statements was called al-Assad, and if the matter concerned members of the “Islamic state” – the US government (of course, rhetorically), but now the placement of enemies has changed, the USA is mentioned in all the “communiqué” on a par with Russia.

The course of military operations in Syriac, in his last message to the supporters of the leader “dzhebhat an-Nusra” Abu Mohammed al-Dzhulani refers to the leadership of Russia, expressing doubt that Assad will “pair of unhappy planes and guns.” Despite the dismissive bravado, al-Dzhulani devoted to Moscow’s actions a multi-page text, expressing the uncertainty that can unravel all the plans of the Russian leadership. At the same time in the statement of the leader “dzhebhat an-Nusra”, is a very important emphasis: “the Mujahideen of the Caucasus”, from which al-Dzhulani asks for help in the “distraction” of Russia. No need to be an analyst to understand that Dzhulani, in a direct quote contains the call to “kill civilians” and “to do with Russian military the same that they do with our soldiers”.

In parallel, the group “Jaish al-Muhajirin Val-Ansar”, it is “Kataib al-Muhajirin”, declared war on Russia because of the support the troops of Bashar al-Assad. The rhetoric is the same: wait for the attacks because she dared to interfere in our Affairs and does not allow impunity to kill innocent people for the money of the Saudis and Qataris. In October to the entire Islamic world and asked the representative of the IG Adnani’s call for a Jihad against Russia.

The first “bells” of the Russian Federation received almost immediately: in Moscow had prevented a major terrorist attack, the perpetrators of which are directly linked to ISIS and Syrian terrorists. No matter how it was unfortunate, we can assume that this case is not the last representatives of ISIS and other terrorist groups will try to organize terrorist acts on the territory of any region of the Russian Federation.

It would be a mistake to assume that if Russia had not intervened in the Syrian conflict, we have passed the intensification of illegal armed groups. On the contrary, after the militants finally be dealt with devoid of international support for the Assad regime, the Islamists would take us close. Opponents of military action in Syria does not take in the sense that a significant part of the so-called moderate militants – members of the “Caucasus Emirate”, the same, on account of which dozens of terrorist attacks in Russia. And it is unclear what could stop them after all the Affairs in Syria. It is obvious that the suppression of hostile Russian groups, it is logical to spend in the distance from the Russian border, so you do not run the same “moderate” terrorists somewhere in the forests near Stavropol or Buinaksk.

Returning to the statement of the leader “dzhebhat an-Nusra”, it’s hard not to “rhyme” it with the statements of some Russian opposition. So, the journalist Vladimir Kreidler at the rally of Solidarity against Russian actions in Syria told the audience that the Russian pilots punish “people who stood up in Syria for freedom.” Kreidler in this silence, that the freedom of “moderate terrorists” is basically in need with impunity cut off the heads of those who do not share their ideology.

In General, talking about the reaction of the terrorists to Russia’s actions, it should be understood that our country has already declared a Jihad. Officially and massively, on all channels of extremist groups, regardless of their locations, flags or suffixes in unpronounceable names. And in this regard should discuss about whether to bomb rebel positions, but only about what weapons to use effectively.


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