The Russian-American agreement on the ceasefire in Syria is actively tested for safety. However, already in the US suggests that the very fact of signing the agreement, Russia scored a major geopolitical victory. And this victory is only a symptom of much more serious changes in the world political situation concerning the US role.
The agreement Lavrov and Kerry formally became the result of a compromise. Washington needed to show that he has not lost the opportunity to influence the situation in the middle East, and certainly not lost to Russia’s initiative. Moscow is interested in a truce, to secure the balance of power in which Assad is in a much better position than a year ago.
“Hold out a truce in Syria or not Putin will win anyway”
The chances that the ceasefire will be lasting and the United States and Russia will work together to fight against DAISH and Assad and his armed opponents of the moderate opposition stop fighting with each other, not so much. And even if the truce will be for a long time, it will not mean the end of the war in Syria. And yet in itself, the agreement gives the chance for at least partial reduction of the combat zone.
But the main effect of the agreement, Lavrov, Kerry, it seems, is not that it is perceived almost as a surrender of Washington to Moscow. Yes, surrender to the Syrian issue, but with tangible consequences for the balance of power in the middle East. And that’s not in Russia, not even Pro-Russian observers in the middle East and in the United States.
An editorial in the Washington Post and titled – “Hold out a truce in Syria or not Putin will win anyway”:
“A year ago when Russia resorted to direct military intervention in Syria, President Obama predicted that in the end, only Russia remains bogged down in the quagmire of war. Now, however, the agreement, signed Friday by Secretary of state John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, promises Mr. Putin everything he tried to achieve. Reeling a year ago, the Assad regime is strengthened, but the opposition was dealt a heavy blow. The United States is inferior to the long-standing requirement for Mr. Putin to join Russia in the struggle against the organizations, which it calls terrorist. If you ever would undergo serious political talks on the future of Syria – the Assad regime and his Russian and Iranian backers will take them a dominant position.
Mr. Kerry promises that in exchange for these major concessions, effectively means the refusal of the tasks to liberate Syria from Assad that had been put before Mr. Obama and turn the United States into a Junior partner of Russia in the most important at the moment, the middle East, will begin the delivery of humanitarian assistance in besieged Aleppo and other cities”.
The pathos of the article, Putin and Assad has repeatedly entered into a ceasefire (in Ukraine and in Syria) and they are always broke, “so they expanded the territory they control and strengthen its strategic position, while receiving from the United States sanctions and concessions and new proposals”. And if now Moscow and Damascus would fulfill its promises, it is not because they are honest, but because it ends up being Obama, the weakness of the policy which they enjoyed. In short, the American administration itself, “atstumas from their own “red devil”, has allowed Russia to regain its former position in the middle East”.
The accusations of Obama’s weak foreign policy and talk about the fact that he is losing the middle East to Putin, going to the US for the past year. Text in Washington Post could be attributed to the regular attacks of the interventionists behind Clinton (and the newspaper actively works on former Secretary of state). For the sake of election bets American media does not stop before any distortion of reality – just look how spins the theme of “Putin puts on trump, trump is a puppet of Putin, Russia is interfering in American elections.”
But in this case it is not in the elections. As because in the same tone evaluate the agreement, and many other media (e.g., CNN – “it will be short and we really will participate in a joint operation with Russia, will actually play into the hands of the Russians and Syrians”), and because America really clearly understand the weakness of his position in the middle East. The agreement Lavrov and Kerry becomes the last straw that forces to speak about this in full voice.
In published Monday in the American Interest the article of Professor Walter Russell Mead, “Russia is once again becoming a great power in the middle East” pedaliruetsya the theme of humiliation of the United States. And it served as the actual self-abasement, that is the consequence of the mistakes of Washington. Moscow supposedly only used it to bolster his position:
“In history few examples of how a weak power such as Russia is achieving such significant achievements in countering such a strong country like the United States… Putin has no economy, and its ability to project power rests on the live thread and on the nozzle. But the mistakes of opponents has always been his main weapon… And in Syria, it forced the Obama administration obsequiously to beg for ceasefire, which will give Putin even more control than before. Now America is tacitly acknowledges its long-term presence in the middle East as a major player…
After hard and long work, Secretary Kerry made Putin consent to the conclusion of a temporary Alliance with the United States on Russian terms. As a result of this agreement, the Assad regime today is stronger, and the us network of alliances in the middle East weakened. Perhaps Putin will continue to push the United States to make concessions in the framework of this agreement, further humiliating the Obama administration and continuing to damage the international position of America.”
The emphasis on the weakness of Russia is needed in order to emphasize the weakness of the current us administration – they say how you managed to lose this “regional power”? The arrogance of Americans is clear. First, it is their national trait, and secondly, Russia’s GDP is really almost an order of magnitude less American.
But not everything is Economics. And most importantly, Russia has not used the weakness or mistakes of Obama and the General crisis, which came the entire American middle East policy.
It is the USA that their intervention has brought the situation in the region to catastrophic, undermined their position and credibility, multiply the hatred. And the fact that Russia managed to take advantage of the situation to return to the middle East is largely a credit to all the latest White House than the occupant of the Kremlin. No matter how experienced political player nor was Putin, it is only during wrapped the losses in the Russian acquisition.
And, of course, this applies not only to the Middle East – just there in the last year this has manifested in the most vivid form. Russia really takes a growing place in the global game – much more than the weight of its economy. In an article in the American Interest, the foreign Ministry lists some signs of this:
“For the leader of a former world power whose economy is in disarray, Vladimir Putin feels quite good in 2016. Its ships travel through the South China sea, providing support to Beijing, which demonstrates a complete disregard for the norms of international law. Japanese Prime Minister brushes off the protests of Washington and holds a meeting with the Russian leader. Putin’s Russia every week digging deeper on the Crimean Peninsula, and as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, openly and blatantly violates the Charter of the organization and their own promises. Putin watches as every day more and more weakened and split the European Union”.
The trouble with most of the American establishment that, rightly considering America itself is to blame for the strengthening of Russia, they see no reason for this. The point is not that Obama has really followed the course of the rejection of interventionism and wanted to shift the burden on U.S. allies and satellites. The fact that this course no alternative.
The US can no longer force to maintain its global dominance. Bell rang in 2008-m, and everything that happens thereafter is merely an attempt to preserve hegemony, abandoning the behavior of the hegemon. Everyone understands that America is no longer willing to send its army to the other end of the world for warfare, but wants it achieved the situation was recognized by the whole world. But this does not happen. World of the American advanced force and without the threat of its use is beginning to fall apart. Financial dictatorship of the dollar still works, but it is weakening our eyes. USA overstrained taken role of “global head” – and now they need to think about how to make a failure of it minimally painful.
It tried to deal with Obama, will do the same and trump. And even Clinton, if he wins, will eventually be forced to act in the same way. Because the only alternative – trying to solve everything on their own, ignoring the interests of others will only lead to a sharp response from the greater part of the world community and, consequently, accelerate the process of depriving US of the situation in the main on the planet.” That is, the collapse not only of the dead project “of the world-American”, but of the entire Atlantic project, and even the United States.
So in the interest of all to USA slowly descended from the dizzying and painful for them, height, and Russia, China and other centers of power are gradually filled, resulting in the zones of their national interests void. And it’s not a concession from the United States, and the most prudent and national-oriented policy. So there is nothing to regret “lost in Syria” or “recognized the important place of Russia in the middle East. Ahead of a much more steep hill. American, they’re Russian.