Interior Minister of Ukraine Arsen Avakov was in a vulnerable position. The Prosecutor General’s office filed against strongman criminal case – as stated, on the complaint of public men. At the same time appeared in the press material about the relationship of the Minister with the battalion “Azov”, which I suspect many sins – from hostile takeovers to threats of a coup. This can be beneficial to another attack on Avakov?
The head of the MIA of Ukraine Arsen Avakov will remain at his post, in spite of the excited criminal case against him, assured on Wednesday the Advisor to the Minister Zoryan Shkiryak. “I want to reassure all who are fanning the rumors about the possible resignation of Avakov. It will not be”, – said Shkiryak, who himself recently lost his Ministerial post (Avakov’s adviser until may 2015 was the head of the state service for emergency situations).
“The fact that now the Prosecutor’s office became interested in what Avakov, says that it must first Poroshenko”
Earlier, the General Prosecutor of Ukraine Yury Lutsenko told that Avakov opened a criminal case. The Prosecutor General did not specify what article. Later in office, Lutsenko said: the case against the head of the interior Ministry opened at the request of the public anti-corruption action Center.
Thus a press-the Secretary of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Larisa Sargan, without specifying the nature of the charges, said that suspicions are not confirmed and can be interpreted as a subject of imagination”.
Anyway, the other day in the Ukrainian media appeared information that Avakov be dismissed, and his place is the current head of the Council of national security and defense Council (NSDC) Oleksandr Turchynov. In this post of the head of the national security Council is supposed to take the acting head of the security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Hrytsak. The stuffing had to deny already Turchinov. “Conversations about conflicts in the power unit and my transfer to the Ministry of internal Affairs – another planned provocation”, – wrote the head of the national security Council on its website.
We will add that talking about the resignation of Avakov are not the first year, remove this annoying many shapes called for by many – from nationalists of “Freedom” and “Right*” to the deputies of the Pro-presidential Bloc Petro Poroshenko. Byword was the confrontation between the interior Minister and the Governor of Odessa Mikhail Saakashvili.
In particular, as noted yesterday in comments the newspaper VIEW Director of the Ukrainian Center of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky, with this conflict associated accusations against Saakashvili in the “creating a criminal group” – this, recall, said the deputies – party members Avakov in the “popular front” Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
“Shield Avakov” and the Ghost “a third Maidan”
It is significant that the story of the initiation of proceedings against the head of the Ministry of interior coincided with the publication in the Ukrainian mass media messages about relationships Avakov with the nefarious actions of the so-called civilian corps “Azov” – the structure associated with the same regiment of the national guard (in turn subordinated to the Ministry of interior).
The revitalization of the so-called civilian corps “Azov” in Ukraine, in particular the storming of the construction sites of Kievgorstroya and picketing of the courts, may lead to a new Maidan, Ukrainian media reports.
“Azov” has long been featured in various projections as the structure, which can become the main driving force of the hypothetical “third Maidan”, or armed revolution. Also, “residents of Azov” is considered as a kind of shield for the Minister (of internal Affairs Arsen) Avakov, which quickly can turn into a sword if the Minister wants to dismiss. Supposedly, the threat of rebellion of the “Azov” Avakov allegedly blackmailing the President and the PPB (Block Petro Poroshenko) to prevent his resignation,” writes the Ukrainian edition “Strenia”.
“It is unknown how far this process will continue”
Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that the criminal case against Arsen Avakov definitely are political motives, not excluding the interest of the President.
“The fact is that on any major Ukrainian leader is compromising, and to initiate a criminal case against each of them. So the fact that now the Prosecutor’s office became interested in what Avakov, says that it is necessary first of all to the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko,” Pogrebinsky said the newspaper VIEW.
However, the expert does not expect that Avakov will use its influence on the territorial battalions for some radical actions against the government, at least in the near future, although this possibility is actively discussed now in the media.
“It is unknown how far this process will continue, perhaps limited to the threats. However, you cannot deny that Avakov is behaving lately as if thinks he’s allowed. It would be strange if the President did not used already obvious signs of abuse from Avakov to put pressure on him,” – said Pogrebinsky.
“Fighting Nanai boys” in the Ukrainian government
Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Ukrainian politics Konstantin Bondarenko, in turn, believes that at the moment it is too early to draw any final conclusions regarding the case against Avakov, as no other information, except the statement of Lutsenko, we do not have.
“I will only explain that the Prosecutor General’s office formally can not open a criminal case against Avakov, as it is a specialized anti-corruption Agency. In this situation, it is impossible to judge how strong the statement of Lutsenko, a PR component, and how much real desire to attract Avakov accountable”, – said political scientist newspaper VIEW.
According to Bondarenko, now one thing is clear: relations between the interior Minister and President of Ukraine are now quite intense. “In particular, the factor Avakov does not give Poroshenko to monopolize influence on the power structures of Ukraine, because under the full control of Avakov is a part of the units of the national guard. However, Poroshenko not defenseless, and if Avakov will decide to mobilize their support for the same “Azov”, the President has to respond”, he explained.
At the same time, the expert pointed out that with the elimination Avakov breaks up the ruling coalition, are inevitable early parliamentary elections, which Poroshenko and his team is not ready. “So don’t make sensation with all this “struggle Nanai boys” in the Ukrainian government,” – said Bondarenko.
* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”