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Monday, October 24, 2016

Experts of the Stolypin club, the government of Russia

In Russia, the economy will do not the White house, “Administration of growth”, subordinate to Vladimir Putin personally. The government sidelined, leaving solely on turnover. Key interest rate down to 2%, and the Central Bank will limit the power. All this will happen next year. However, under one condition. The so-called package “of priority of urgent measures for the resumption of economic growth” by experts of the Stolypin club, must be approved by the President.

photo: Dmitry Katerinov

Now for the title of the main reformers in the country fighting two groups of economists: Kudrinskaya headed clear by whom, and Stolypin. Both on behalf of Vladimir Putin should prepare alternative socio-economic development programme of the state for years to come. You can tell whose paper is more like the President wins.

If former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin will present their offers until the spring of 2017, Stolypin promised to do it before the end of this autumn. “To warm up” members of the club, which, incidentally, are very dear people, for example, the rector of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Eskindarov, former Deputy Minister of economic development Andrei Klepach has already been presented to the public a “primary” version of the “salvation of the Fatherland” in the IV quarter of 2016 — I–II quarters of 2017.

The authors do not have to waste time on trifles, at once taking the bull by the horns. They proposed to create in Russia a new institution — the presidency, “the Administration of growth”, giving it special powers. “Administration” will deal exclusively with development strategy. In this case, it is the business of government will remain turnover and budget performance.

One of the main tasks of Stolypina believe the decline to the end of 2016, Central Bank key interest rate to 7-8%. According to them, will happen to the explosive growth of crediting, consumption, there will be an outflow of Russians with Bank deposits in the real sector. Demand for real estate, cars and stuff on the pull chain of related industries: road construction and infrastructure to ladles.

Experts believe that it is real. After all, inflation in August amounted to only 6.6%. If next year it will be below 4%, it is possible to continue the reduction in the rate of 2-2,5%. And again. Some experts have suggested that seriously undercut the authority of the Bank of Russia. Say, to oblige the Board of Directors to reach a decision on the size of the key rate with the state Duma.

Simultaneously, the Central Bank needs to reduce the requirements on the regulations relating to mandatory reserves by commercial banks of various types of lending. Then the financial institution will begin the surplus liquidity to invest in specific industrial projects, not to place the Central Bank under 10,2% per annum.

In addition, the document provides for a multiple of the capital increase to 150 billion rubles to Fund the development of industry, the Russian export centre. The creation from scratch of the development Fund of agriculture with a capital of 100 billion rubles, which will lend to farmers against the security of agricultural land.

Oddly enough, but the proposed “package” there are no proposals on the issue, what Stolypina often gets from opponents.

“The fact that at a low key rate of the additional money needed will be much less than, — says the expert of the club Anastasia Alekhnovich. — No need to print trillions. After all, freed up enormous resources of the Russians. To prevent financial outflow to the FX market it is possible to organize the production of indexed exchange of Federal loan bonds denominated in rubles worth up to 1 trillion rubles in related specific investment purposes.”

“No, “the Administration of growth”, especially impaled on all sides, will not help to create the country’s notorious favourable economic climate — said the Director of the banking Institute HSE Vasily Solodkov. — Of course, low key rate — the measure is necessary, but not sufficient.

You need at least a fair legal system. We have the same state with the help of law enforcement bodies continues to wring the whole business, oil companies, airports, and the courts legalize such actions. Expenditure on defence is much higher spending on education and academic institutions turn to foreign agents.

In addition, the document contains an interesting passage: “Job “of the Administration of growth” will be built on the basis of project management and working simulation model input-output balance”. For such a complex formulation, in my opinion, is an attempt to revive Gosplan of the USSR. That he was “five” on the basis of forming of interbranch balance, calculating to the smallest detail, how much to produce of a product. How it ended — it is known”.


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