The Duma elections on 18 September can be some of the most interesting in modern Russian history. But with one condition — if they want the voters themselves.
Debates with the participation of representatives of all 14 parties running in the current election campaign, has demonstrated that in elections involving representatives of all major ideological currents. This is the fundamental difference of this election from the campaign of 2011, when the number of participants was reduced almost to a minimum — seven parties, and the electoral threshold was too high (7%), which deprived the three parties any chance to overcome it.
And most of the parties now really fighting for the result, but they can be very different. It is a competition for second place. If earlier it was guaranteed to be Communist, now on the heels of the Communist party comes LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky. However, voter Gennadiy Zyuganov is much more disciplined (and therefore the chances of the Communists in the “silver” in the election race are still preferable), but Zhirinovsky gets new voters that are configured for the protest, but I think the Communists are too archaic.
The Communist party the situation is difficult. On the one hand, the party put forward, including in the Moscow districts, a number of young politicians who could be her new “face”. But the campaign of the Communists at the Federal level, as before, the main role is played by the well-known party veterans. It is clear that thereby the Communist party goes to meet his nuclear constituency that wants no change in the appearance of the party, but at the same time, she pushes the potential voters, which immediately connects to Zhirinovsky.
For part of the batch task is to pass in the Duma. It is primarily “Fair Russia”, as usual improve your ranking on the initial stage of the campaign. Most likely, the “revolutionaries” will be presented in the next Duma as an independent faction, although its strength may decrease. If in 2011 the party due to the votes of “angry citizens” were able to break through into third place, but now it bypasses the liberal democratic party. And the loss due to the transition to a mixed electoral system of party it will be difficult to compensate for. She has a few strong single-seat districts (including districts where the “United Russia” has not fielded candidates, but they will be insufficient in order to catch up to the result of the game five years ago.
Most likely at the moment seems to be “conservative” scenario of a four-party Parliament with the same factions that now. Among the parties hoping for a breakthrough in the Duma in the last days of the campaign, you can call pronounced ideological parties — the Imperial “Homeland” and the social-liberal Yabloko (the more the threshold is lowered to 5%). The “homeland” has a slight advantage — she’s number one on the ballot. These parties win at least 3% result, which provides government funding. 3% is also claimed by the PARNAS, the Party of growth, “Communists of Russia”, the Russian party of pensioners for justice (RPPS).
The unexpected evolution during the election period did PARNAS, who preferred a game of chance, fighting for votes not only liberals, but also from other protest groups, including nationalists. However, the fact that the legs do not go” — all we are talking about different target audiences with competing interests. Chance “Communists of Russia” stems from the fact that they are in the ballot is higher than the Communist party. “Nuclear” voter Zyuganov, of course, be distinguished one from the other Communist party, and the peripheral can be mixed. Party growth relies on a massive propaganda campaign, and on the presence in the list of famous people. With regard to the RPPS, that is, on the one hand, she has a very weak campaign, and even split into its start. But the name “Party of pensioners” evokes sentimental feelings people remember their elderly parents, whom they owe everything and can’t pay your debt. While voting for such a party, voters do not do a thorough examination of the electoral lists and the clarification of the question, as they present pensioners.
However, the main intrigue of the elections — the turnout. Understand that there will come the most consistent supporters of the “United Russia” and the Communist party — both of them quite easily mobilized. With other parties more difficult — with higher turnout LDPR and “Fair Russia” can count on additional mandates. And the fate of non-parliamentary parties depends entirely on whether to come to their potential voters to the polling stations.
Another thing is that the quality of the campaigns of these parties is of a different character — as, indeed, in 90-e years when there were many findings, and failures like “bull Vani” of the rollers of the Bloc of Ivan Rybkin. Incidentally, outright absurdities still less — if the strategists are often moved “to the touch”, now the very very bad experiences usually leave as the result of sociological research. The problem, however, is different: many parties it is difficult to define your own target audience, potential voters, which should focus. Hence the vague signals, which are not always “captured” by the voters.
However, even successful public relations moves will not necessarily lead to success. Politics is often compared to theater, but even good actors do not always collect a full house. Especially now that Russian society was involved in the depression — inflated “postkrymsky” expectations were largely not met, but the protests are still moderate. In this situation, people often “go away”, dealing with family problems, the search for additional income. Their interest in politics is fairly weak, although before the election he is under the influence of television and grows. The question is how political the demand meets the increased supply.
According to the researches, the supporters of non-parliamentary parties seriously interested in “their” candidates, and televised debates with their participation. It is quite natural that during election week increased the awareness of these parties. Accordingly, if during the campaign, these voters will Wake up emotion, you can earn word of mouth promoting electoral mobilization in favor of at least one party. Only such a mobilization not only of the party to engage citizens, and voters to come to the sites and not stay at home. Otherwise, they’ll regret that policy, which they sympathized with more than others, not passed in the Duma. For extra-parliamentary parties the old slogan “All on elections!” is now particularly important: for some of them it is not only about success but about survival.