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Thursday, October 27, 2016

What kind of indexing can count retired in 2017

In a television interview a week before the elections, Dmitry Medvedev promised to resume in 2017 now suspended indexation of pensions, and at the same time to pay lump sum compensation for pension payments, “eaten” by inflation in the current year. If you understand the verse literally, it would seem that next year’s scheduled payment of indexation and for 2016 and 2017. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry warns: just at this time Russia fully use up the remains of the Reserve Fund. In other words, there is no money. How to reconcile with one another?

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

On the one hand, the Prime Minister and in fact directly confirmed plans to return to the old system of indexation of pensions in early 2017. But, how do you know all pensioners indexing involves regular payments throughout the year. On the other hand, in the same interview, the Prime Minister reiterated previously expressed the government’s intention “to dontexecute” at the beginning of the 2017 pension for 2016 on 5 thousand roubles, calling the decision “the only possible and fair.”

However, compensation for the two years, pensioners will not get. Yes, and for one year they will pay not all that good, they would have relied.

First, to rely on a lot is not necessary because, as warned on 9 September, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Lavrov, just for the next year Russia will completely use up the remnants of its Reserve Fund. And the deficit in the next Federal budget will be replenished except by some “internal borrowing” and the Fund of national welfare. (Previously, the possibility of exhaustion of the Russian Reserve Fund in 2017 and on the financing of the budget deficit of the funds of the NWF, however, is less certain, said the chief Lavrova – Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov).

Second, as explained “MK” doctor of Economics Igor Nikolaev, from February 1 is expected to index pensions by 4% – hence, the amount the government promised payment in 5 thousand roubles. meanwhile, real inflation during this period was 12.9%. This means that to cover it, the amount paid would have to be 7.4 thousand RUB It and it would be a real restoration of justice in relation to pensioners. However, the payout will be only 5 thousand rubles. And this is not good.

In the future, according to experts, the government expects (or rather hopes) that inflation will decline and will amount to no more than 5.7-5.8 percent. This level, he said, and will be incorporated in the new budget.

However, in our assessment, the real inflation will be not less than 7%. What if it will be all 8%? Then the government will be in a difficult position, because the word says it all, the promises given. Where to take money?

However, the reduction of the Federal budget for 2017-2019 will go in the new political realities. His project, said Lavrov, will be considered by the government only on October 13, after the elections to the State Duma of the new convocation.


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