“We can’t allow countries like China to write the rules of the global economy. We should write those rules”. With these words, President Barack Obama announced the conclusion of major trade agreements – the so-called agreement on the TRANS-Pacific trade partnership (TTP). Really does the United States get from the Treaty stated enormous benefits?
US President Barack Obama confirmed on Monday the conclusion of the 12-party agreement on the TRANS-Pacific trade partnership, which will create a free trade area in the Asia Pacific region. The rules of world trade, to write America, not someone else, such as China, Obama said.
“We demand from the administration to distribute the text immediately and urge lawmakers to be very careful in the estimates of TTP
“When more than 95% of our potential customers live outside our borders, we can’t allow countries like China to write the rules of the global economy. We should write those rules, opening up new markets for American products and setting high standards for employee protection and preservation of the environment. The agreement reached today in Atlanta, will provide it,” Obama said.
As if to confirm his words that the new document “will help ordinary Americans going forward,” Obama indicated that TTP resolves the other countries more than 18 thousand in taxes on goods from the United States. He assured that the agreement will protect jobs in the United States and the environment more than any other agreement in history.”
I must say, the details of the agreement still kept secret, for which, quite naturally, he is criticized. The largest US trade Union AFL-CIP again on Monday demanded the administration to immediately distribute the text of the Treaty. “We are disappointed that our negotiators were in a hurry to conclude the TPP in Atlanta, given all of the concerns that were raised by interested parties in the United States and members of Congress”, – said the head of the trade unions Richard Trumka. “We demand from the administration to distribute the text immediately and urge lawmakers to be very careful in the estimates of TTP, he added.
Obama in response to accusations of secretiveness agreement promised to finally lift the veil of secrecy over the text of the TPP agreement and to submit it for public discussion. However, not now.
“When the negotiators to finalize the text of the partnership, the Congress and the American people will get a few months to read every word before I’ll sign it,” Obama said.
The United States is not ready to publish the text of the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership, this will be done after the completion of the “technical work”, said in turn the United States trade representative with the rank of Minister Michael Froman. According to him, adoption of the agreement on the TPP in the us Congress will happen in 2016. For consideration by the full text of the agreement will give lawmakers 90 days to vote on its approval.
The trick of the White house is not only the limitation of time to study the document, but also in the fact that this summer, Obama has sought from the MPs special trade authority (fast track). Without seeing the agreement to the TPP, the parliamentarians had to give all decisions solely in the hands of the President. The essence of fast track is that now Congress can only approve or deny prisoners the administration of the President of the United States international trade agreements, but does not have the right to make changes. Up to this point, Congress has only twice granted the White house fast track authority: in 1975-1994 and in 2002-2007.
Interestingly, in April, presented to Congress a draft law on the special powers, Obama said exactly the same words as today: that the laws of the world economy have to write USA, not China that is extremely beneficial to U.S. exporters and ordinary Americans. Then he added: “Our exports support over 11 million jobs, and we know that exporting companies pay higher wages than others. Today we have the opportunity to open even more new markets for goods and services, which rely on three words that cause a sense of pride: “made in America”.
United States, speaking about the benefits of TTP, always based on the study of prospects for Pacific partnership, which at the time was held by the experts of the research Institute East-West Centre, Peter Petri, Michael Plummer and Fan Zhai. They predict that the new organization will increase the GDP of 12 countries-participants of 285 billion dollars, or 0.9%, by 2025. This partnership will make the country richer by $ 77 billion. These numbers, and operated all of the time, the United States, concealing the essence of the contract. The parties to the agreement – the US, Canada, Mexico in North America, Peru and Chile to the South, Japan, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore and Vietnam in Asia as well as Australia and New Zealand. They account for 40% of the world economy and a third of world trade. In addition, the 13th member wants to be South Korea, which has declared its desire to join the TPP trading bloc, the Agency “Renhap”. Ratification procedures can be completed in 2017-2018.
However, there are many who disagree with this assessment of GDP growth for members of the TTP. In particular, experts of the canadian Institute C. D. Howe Institute Dan Kurek and Jingliang Cao believe that the GDP of 12 countries will increase, but much more modestly – only to 74 billion dollars, or only 0.21% higher than the baseline forecast. Moreover, this will not happen by 2025, as in the previous study, but only by 2035, that is, twenty years later. Other economists do not see economic benefits from partnerships. In the study of the Asian Development Bank Institute economist, Inyo Chang predicts that U.S. GDP does not change from joining the TPP.
American billionaire and now presidential candidate in the United States – Donald trump in the spring called “failure” the signing of the TRANS-Pacific partnership. He is confident that the agreement will hurt American companies. According to him, “it is a tool by which all of these countries will bankrupt us.” He stated that he did not believe in the potential of this project due to the fact that most of the TPP countries do not respect the United States. “Our government is incompetent. They are children,” said trump about the Obama administration.
Meanwhile the American President with his statements proves a different point of view on the TPP. Obama made no secret of the Imperial ambitions of the United States. With this agreement the United States and Japan, as a stronger economy will conquer new emerging markets. That TTP is a way of development of the economies of the Asia-Pacific region, many do not believe. As evidence is the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA), which resulted in the emergence of low-wage jobs and wage cuts in emerging economies. Particularly severely affected Malaysia, Peru and Vietnam as the weakest economy in this Association. There are greater risks that the current state of their economies will not allow them to successfully fit into the new Union.As the United States controls the entire planet
The fact that the TTP will respond primarily to the interests of the United States, and secondarily the interests of Japan, indirectly confirms the statement of Barack Obama. He from 12 countries made a statement on the establishment of partnerships, all the other countries made their joint Declaration of 12 States a press release. Japan also confirmed rumors agreed in principle to the official speech of Obama.
Many see in this contract the intention of the US to China to continue to grow economically, including gathering around him all APAC countries except China. So, for example, believes the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad.
Former Russian Ambassador in Tokyo, head of the Department of diplomacy of MGIMO Alexander Panov also said China is one of the parties that may be affected by the emergence of TTP. “China is creating a free trade zone. Thus, there are two economic and trade partnership, which will compete”, – the expert believes. “Today’s announcement is kind of a first step towards secession of the region economic blocs”, – said Panov.
The first Deputy head of the Duma Committee on economic policy Mikhail Emelyanov regards the conclusion of such an agreement as “another step towards increased rivalry of the United States and China in the Pacific”. China, for example, has launched the project “New silk road” as an alternative in response to the TTP.
It is obvious that the resources of America will “greatly absorbed in the struggle with China,” he said. In his view, a whole new shopping area is unlikely to operate successfully without China, so the prospects for the TPP, he said, very vague.
For a long time of negotiations on the TPP to the press last year leaked a few provisions of the document relating to environmental protection and intellectual property. Experts have estimated that the new rules supposedly protect the environment are formulated in the interests of big energy corporations that can drill where there used for environmental reasons to do this could not. In the end, instead of environmental protection, new rules can be fraught with environmental disasters. A section on intellectual property created in the interests of American pharmaceutical companies, said the canadian branch of the international organization “Doctors without borders”. According to the position of the document, pharmaceutical companies get for a longer time monopoly on the brand trade names drugs. “It gives them the opportunity to maintain high prices for these drugs, as well as to stop or significantly delay the appearance on the market of much cheaper generics, which play a vital role in global health,” think “Doctors without borders”.
It is believed that the US is not limited exclusively to economic goals while creating TTP. First, North America has always grant any trade preferences to other countries, coupled with a solution to their geopolitical and military objectives. We cannot exclude the implication when creating the TRANS-Pacific partnership. Moreover, virtually all members of the new Union way or the other are allies of the US in foreign policy.
As for Russia, it is always negatively perceived the TPP project. The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov said earlier that Washington create this partnership, willingly or unwillingly may cause the depreciation of the universal principles of the world trade organization.
Now the conclusion of the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific trade partnership is unlikely to seriously affect Russian interests, but in the future may experience constraints that could affect Russian trade, does not preclude Mikhail Emelyanov.
The initiative of China to launch the project “New silk road” is much closer to Moscow than the TRANS-Pacific partnership, head of the Department of Korea and Mongolia of Institute of Oriental studies, RIAC expert Alexander Vorontsov. “With the Chinese initiative we are much closer connected and is ready to cooperate. And even the decision already taken about pairing our Eurasian (economic) Union and our efforts under the strategic turn to the East with this Chinese initiative,” says Vorontsov. He also believes that the TRANS-Pacific partnership does not threaten the interests of Russia in the Asia Pacific region. However, if this American project affected China, the Russian Federation as its partner may also obtain damages.