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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Turkey between East and West


In Turkey, in a country where a large, if not exaggerated, attention to detail, observers are unable to refrain from close scrutiny of the “family photo album” with the just-concluded China summit “the Big twenty”. Of course, the object of the analysis was the positioning of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the space right between Jinping and Putin and its proximity to settled down in the second row Nazarbayev and CECE. Does the arrangement in the photo final crack that lay in the relations of Turkey with the West, and whether it marks the beginning of another Turkish rapprochement with the bloc of countries that represent conditional the East, including Russia? The best answer to this question should recognize the quote from the old joke about Sigmund Freud: “you Know, there just dreams”.

Moving from dreams to reality: a joint Russian-Turkish projects of construction of gas pipeline “Turkish stream” and a nuclear power plant “Akkuyu” to “airplane crisis” 24 November 2015 fully fit in view of our relations as “a strategic and multidimensional partnership” with far-reaching geopolitical perspective.

After a rapid reconciliation exactly the same projects, coupled with Russia’s resumption of Charter flights, not less seamlessly in antitissue the theory of cooperation between the two countries walking hand in hand in the light, not impossible, future. But relying on benefits for parties “here and now”, on the basis of not too trust model, “in the morning money — in the evening chairs!”.

In principle, there are many points of view on the reciprocal steps taken by Russia and Turkey in the framework of the process of normalization of bilateral relations. However, one of them just completely missing — any thoughts about reviving trust between Putin and Erdogan and the newly emerging Russian-Turkish political Alliance. One should not unnecessarily exaggerate the fact that the Russian Military space forces opened part of the sky for the Turkey local ground operations near the Turkish-Syrian border…

It is clear that before Turkey full length looming threat to solid devyatimetrovuyu the border with “a murderer and a tyrant” Bashar al-Assad, and not even with the “Islamic state”, and someone for her worse — with the United cantons Syrian Kurds rushing to create in the region of their independent state. Given the escalation of the confrontation with the Kurdistan workers party in Turkey, the Turkish leadership was ready to reconsider their views on many things.

If just a few months ago, President Erdogan expressed bewilderment about the fact that Russia does not have common border with Syria, making the country, it is now well recognized the key Russian role in the conflict. Sounded in Turkey and the thesis of the legitimacy of the operations of the Military space forces of Russia, fighting at the invitation of the official Damascus. Almost the first time Turkish leaders have declared about its commitment to the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic. Even Bashar al-Assad, which recently almost daily basis in the rink was held by the Turkish media, will be “ikatsya” much less often — he was pretty rusty.

It seems that open for Turkey “slice” of the Syrian sky of Russia was not more expensive than to run again Charter flights. In exchange, Russia received a fairly solid and, most importantly, a specific set of economic benefits for crucial projects. In addition, the input by Turkey of its armed forces in Syria received another important consequence. Syrian Kurds, supported by the United States of America, came face to face with the Turkish army. And Americans trying to sit on two chairs at once, you will have to demonstrate true miracles of equilibrium, that though as-that to dissolve in different directions Turkey — a NATO member — and the force actually fighting against the “Islamic state” on Syrian soil. In General, simple, elegant and, most importantly, effective Russian Hello the North Atlantic Alliance.

Of course, it is no question nor on the withdrawal of Turkey from NATO, nor its rejection of European integration after the failed in the night from 15 to 16 July the military coup, which the Turks saw the Western “ears.” Similarly, only a smile cause are still coming sometimes the comments about an alternative development path for Turkey’s accession to the Shanghai cooperation organization or the Eurasian economic Union. Still, the CSTO remembered. Honest to God, about it was already so much talk that it’s time for them to introduce an official ban. Don’t accept the Nobel prize Committee for consideration of the application for the invention of perpetual motion. So here, as its civilizational choice in favor of the West the Republic of Turkey made a very long time. And the gaze of the West to the Turks in this case is not crucial.

Those who are interested in the roots of the issue, it is appropriate to refer to the history of the Turkish war of independence in the early twentieth century. The most curious thing that the Turks more than Russians themselves, remember the help and support that Soviet Russia had young Turkish Republic during the liberation struggle and also in the most difficult of the first years of its existence. So, taking guns, guns, guns, and gold with sincere gratitude, the founder and first President of the Turkish Republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk to Communist ideas showed remarkable callousness. Since the national liberation struggle of Turkey were not of a class nature and, therefore, was in no way akin to the October revolution in Russia.

The friendship between Soviet Russia and the Turkish Republic during the life of Ataturk really was, but as the evolution of views of the Turkish President, the country did increasingly turn to the West. This had many causes. In addition, the Soviet Union, the Stalinist repression hardly was a worthy role model, and the Generalissimo to atatürk relationship as equal not demonstrated. So at the end, in his last speech before the Great national Assembly (Majlis) of Turkey in 1937, Ataturk wrote about Russia in the last turn, speaking first about the agreements entered into by the country with France, Britain and Germany.

During the Second world war, the Turkish Republic managed to withstand the neutrality, however, with a noticeable bias in favor of Germany. There were frequent cases of violations of the Montreux Convention, when the German warships were allowed to enter Turkey through the Straits into the Black sea. In 1942, no one could vouch for the fact that the Turks are holding on the border with the Soviet Transcaucasus 26 divisions, were on the side of the Nazis. After 1945, the Soviet Union, wanting to “punish” Turkey, put forward territorial claims to it and klatsnul teeth” to the side of the black sea Straits and “Armenian” provinces, the future bloc affiliation of the country was finally sealed.

About the course of events about Turkey’s entry into NATO in 1952, about the cold war and the thaw in Soviet-Turkish relations after the removal of the question about territorial claims, about the late period of the USSR on the eve of the collapse — it is possible to write quite a long time. But the important thing is that, regardless of any fluctuations in the Turkish course, fundamentally he was always oriented towards the United States and Europe. In some periods, relations between Turkey chose to remain neutral, however, by analogy with the Second world war, that the vast majority of cases, neutrality was not in our favor.

Yes, the current President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relations with the West fold Oh how difficult, and that’s an understatement.

Anyone’s attention, first and foremost from the Turkish, not hiding the fact that Western leaders in the night from 15 to 16 July downright held their breath in anticipation of that wayward Erdogan “here right now” overthrown. Unlike the same Russia, which expressed its support immediately and unequivocally.

From the United States of America Turkey to Morkovkina Shrovetide to demand the extradition of a fugitive preacher Fethullah Gulen, accused of organizing the coup and everything that the country has seen a resonant, including, by the way, and shot down a Russian su-24. Will not give the Americans, because it will not give never. For two simple reasons lying beyond the scope of the answer to the question “guilty or innocent”: it is a lot of money that pass through the accounts of the Gulen movement Hizmet in the U.S., and access to a huge Ummah Gulen’s supporters, including those holding responsible positions wherever hismatovna present. And this, in a moment, in 170 countries.

With the European Union, Turkey, may be arbitrarily long talk about the intensive care of the Brussels agreement in the interest of a part of the grant Turkish citizens visa-free entry to the Schengen area. On the same “Twenty” Turkey has kindly agreed to move the burned-out term already in November or December of this year. And here, too, snipe “empty-empty”: I no carry and the result is the same — negative. Not give Europe a visa-free regime front-line country, and even with the regime of a state of emergency with less than democratic by European standards measures. With the closure Sanchez of hundreds of educational institutions, foundations, associations, NGOs, tens of thousands arrested and suspended from work on suspicion of overt and hidden “humanisme”, and the continuing chance to return to the country of the death penalty.

And now, as they say, the question is: should a fractured relations between the Turkish Republic and the West treated Russia as a “historic opportunity” to win over her to your “political camp”?

No, of course. Just because it is necessary to know the story and to remember and own mistakes to learn. So the Russian leadership is currently in effect absolutely right, focusing on the development of mutually beneficial economic relations with constant verification of the final line in the balance sheet and profit and loss. The policy thus taken out of the brackets of the equation, a different kind of cliché, such as “strategic and multidimensional partnership”, set aside for irrelevance

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