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Friday, December 9, 2016

The new party is not interested in the voters


Before the elections in the state Duma remained only ten days, but the campaign at the Federal level, not too noticeable. Although this election is undoubtedly more competitive, and more open, everyone is talking about one of the most boring campaigns in history of elections in the state Duma. Four parliamentary parties did not gain strong competitors.

On 18 September voters will vote for candidates to the state Duma for the first time since 2003, the Parliament is elected not only by party lists but also on a territorial constituencies. Half – 225 deputies will be elected in single-member districts, and the same locations will be divided between 14 parties. Although it is now clear that from participating in the elections of parties represented in the Duma will be a maximum of 8-9, it is considered as if not presented those who will be able to form a faction, and those who will spend at least one Deputy.

“Sluggish struggle for party lists kompensiruet turbulent and competitive campaign in the districts and even more of a struggle for places in regional legislative Assembly”

Fractions of the same will be four – and it will again be the same four parliamentary factions that were presented in the last two Dumas, 2007 and 2011: United Russia, CPRF, LDPR and “Fair Russia”.

The first three of these parties were in the 2003 Duma election – then the company they were “homeland”, which is now again trying to get into Parliament. But her chances of a return on Okhotny Ryad not too big – the party doesn’t have the kind of iconic figures that represented her in 2003 Rogozin, Glazyev, Narochnitskaya. They all work with Putin, but the current “homeland” is part of the popular front, so in theory could count on a substantial part of the Patriotic voters unhappy with United Russia, but supporting the President. But that’s the theory – but in practice, the party failed to become a significant phenomenon of this campaign. A good extension of the name “national front” have not helped to make it so that voters felt “Home” new edition “of the special forces of the President.”

So although all ten non-parliamentary parties the “homeland” the biggest chance to get into Parliament, it only says that the rest is even worse. Most likely, the “homeland” gain 3 to 4 percent of the vote, unless, of course, in the last days of the campaign some extremely vivid events and statements fail to attract the attention of the swing voters and still overcome the five percent barrier.

In addition to “homeland” there is another party that was already in the Duma, is “Apple”. Behind Yavlinsky three Duma 1993, 1995 and 1999. In 2003, the party lost up to 5 percent only 0.7, but now they will be even more difficult than the “Homeland”. “Apple tries to present itself as the only liberal alternative to authority – but her back openly anti-Putin PARNASSUS, which had one of the most memorable campaigns in this election.

PARNAS created “marsh liberals”, put up in the top three in addition to former Prime Minister Kasyanov and even Saratov “nationalist” populist Maltsev and Moscow “Westerner” Professor Zubov – that is, tried to get away from the image of the party “the fifth column” by attracting antiputinistov from many different flanks. The entire campaign is built on the “Putin must go”, and although the ratings Parnassus does not hold and to 1 per cent, he may receive and 2, and then 3% of the votes, if you can mobilize those who see Putin as the root of all evil.

What will hit first on the “Apple” – many fans of Professor Zubov would have voted for Yavlinsky. Thus “Apple” is likely to show a good result – in the worst case 2 and best – even above 4 percent. To get into the Duma, the party can not – but government funding will provide.

Another party, the existing partially overlapping with Yabloko’s electorate, “the Party of growth.” The idea of Boris Titov was good, but to collect liberal electorate, together with the entrepreneurs failed. Pro-Putin minded voters are not satisfied with Khakamada, a liberal – that the party for Putin. Despite the presence of several bright names (for example, Oksana Dmitrieva in St. Petersburg), a great success for the “Party of growth” will be to overcome the 3 percent barrier, but that seems unlikely.

There are two parties that can count on the results of the elections is not a fraction, but for government funding in the next five years. It is the Russian party of pensioners For justice” and “Communists of Russia”. For the “pensioners” good survey data (around 2 percent) and second place in the ballot. The same factor also plays on a breakaway from Zyuganov’s “Communists of Russia” – they are number three, right before the “United Russia”. Besides, the CU participated in several regional elections and showed them a good result.

In the ideal case, “retirees” can receive up to 4 percent of the vote, “Communists of Russia” – up to 2-3 (if they switch a significant part of the electorate of the Communist party). But the chance to get into Parliament they have.

The remaining four parties will receive less than 1 percent of the vote is “Patriots of Russia”, “Green”, “Civic platform” and “Civil force”. The “Patriots” have several factions in regional parliaments and in this election, will hold their deputies in local legislative Assembly.

In the best for small batches if they vote for a quarter of the voters – that is, if in this time people suddenly decide to “give way to young”. Theoretically, a situation may arise in which the four parties get together 2 percent, another four from 2 to 4, and two non-parliamentary parties enter the Parliament – that’s 25 percent. This, of course, would like a clear indication of the tangible frustration of the voters in the “old parties” (and their leaders), and a symptom of the desire for a greater variety of party menu.

But the current campaign does not give the prerequisites for implementation of such a scenario, although it is clear that the number who voted for non-parliamentary parties will be significantly higher than in previous elections, including because it doubled the number of participating parties in the elections. If in 2011 did not pass in the Duma, the party voted only 5 percent, and in 2007 – 8, it now seems quite likely that ten not passed in the Duma parties gain in the amount of 15 to 20 percent of the vote.

All the rest will be shared by four veterans of the Duma, however, and the votes cast for the left behind party, will only increase the number of seats that receive the “big four”. And if at the beginning of the election campaign there was a strong likelihood that the “United Russia” will lose the majority in the Duma (she now has 238 out of 450 seats), it is now possible to say that whatever the outcome of this party will have a parliamentary majority. The reason is odnomandatniki now, according to various estimates, the EP will be able to hold on districts from 150 to 180 candidates (not necessarily members of the party – many will be members of the popular front and non-party).

That is, until the majority of “United Russia” will remain to get about 60-70 seats. And this is the third of what will be distributed between the parties and in order to obtain the number of seats the party needed to recruit not even 33, but at least 25 percent by party lists (the rest will cover award, given to all parliamentary parties due to the redistribution of seats left over from not held to the 5% threshold parties). It is clear that United Russia would receive significantly more than 25 percent.

How much is it? It depends including from turnout – she is expected to almost record low, just above 50 percent, and the purity of elections. This time the Kremlin really strictly ensures that the regions used administrative resources – but it is clear that there are purely national features in a number of republics. Most likely, the EP will gain in the region of 40 percent of the votes, that is half of that will get all the parliamentary parties. The possibility of sagging of the EP to 35 percent now seems unlikely already.

The second will be the Communists – in the region of 18-20 percent. Although the polls have yet promise them less, the Communists are likely to be able to mobilize its “nuclear” electorate. Moreover, in his plays and growing in society, the request for social justice.

Third, the liberal democratic party with 12-15, but it’s rating and growing in recent years. The result of the “Fair Russia” will hover around 10 percent.

Sluggish the struggle for party lists kompensiruet turbulent and competitive campaign in the districts and even more of a struggle for seats in the regional legislative assemblies, the elections which will be held on 18 September in nearly half of subjects of Federation. It is the elections in the regions and there are major elections on the single voting day.

In the new Duma Vladimir Putin will be not just a steady constitutional majority – there will continue the process of forming a new non-partisan Pro-Putin majority. Parties come and go, but national interests and Russia is eternal.

All the news on the elections to the state Duma in 2016

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