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Friday, October 21, 2016

What Putin agreed with Poroshenko and how to discuss Crimea

At a press conference in the Chinese Hangzhou Vladimir Putin said that he will meet with the Ukrainian President. “Where to go, probably have to meet, but not for the very fact of the meeting,” he said. The last phrase is extremely important. The fact that the first persons of the States (especially conflicting) prefer not to empty the Protocol of the meetings of anything it is impossible to agree. Meetings happen when there ground for constructive dialogue and joint decision-making. So what is can negotiate with Putin and Poroshenko in the near future? This “MK” asked the Director of the Institute of CIS countries Konstantin ZATULIN.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

Given today’s tensions between our countries, the failure of the Minsk agreements, provocations and shelling of Donetsk and Lugansk republics, the masses of broken economic ties to discuss is what. The refusal to meet a previous step in the format “Norman Quartet” was connected with Putin’s desire to emphasize that Ukraine has not fulfilled its obligations in that time, never ceases to call on the West to the strengthening and continuation of sanctions against Russia.

– If in the new stage of the meeting will be held, and not for the sake of fact” means that the situation has changed, and Ukraine and its President have become more credible and responsible in the performance agreements?

– The tradition not to meet if there is nothing to negotiate, emerged in the EIGHTEENTH century. But we don’t live in the age of traditional diplomacy, and in the era of mass media, when any diplomatic meeting — it is also an element of foreign policy propaganda. If you refuse to have any contact with the party that you are so accused, you give the opportunity simpatizantes the other side (in this case, the West and the Western media) to ignore your point of view. If you don’t go on contact, that is probably exactly what you really are guilty of something and don’t want to negotiate. Meanwhile, if the meeting takes place, Vladimir Putin will formulate and evaluate media for its results. He will have extra opportunities to show the Russian view of the problems in the relations between the two countries.

And besides, we don’t know the whole range of circumstances that pushes presidents to meet in person. We can’t know a number of verbal agreements between the presidents of the words that were spoken in this regard to third countries.

You can imagine that we are discussing some issues with the Americans, and seems to reach understanding, but know that these important agreements can not be implemented fully due to the fact that there is a certain position on Ukraine, which needs to be clarified or at least to discuss with Poroshenko. After all, Putin said that Russia and Ukraine, already prepared for some kind of breakthrough in relations. Maybe, Poroshenko personally, and would be ready for some friendly steps towards Russia, but he can’t take them because it is a political strike by public opinion of his country.

– You mean that if Poroshenko recognizes Russia as a friendly country, or at least will sign and will execute an agreement, he will turn into a political corpse at home?

– Probably, in the current political circles of Ukraine this will cause resentment.

Honestly, I think most Ukrainians have long agree even with the fact that the question of Crimea is solved. People in Ukraine understand this, but are afraid to say publicly. And policies follow this trend. So they are trying to brainwash themselves and their population to enmity with Russia, on the installation that Russia has encroached on their territorial integrity. This approach leads to a deadlock any agreement even on those issues where our countries have contradictions. And while politicians will play this game and economic situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate. But sooner or later the position of “proud but poor” will lose a pragmatic approach.

– The question of political fiction: is it possible that territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine will be fully resolved?

– Of course. The territory of Russia for several centuries it was grown, and not everyone always had to agree. But sooner or later the enemies of Russia were forced to admit it. The same thing will happen here: our neighbors recognize the reality.

– And when can it happen?

– Further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, when she feels she is no longer receiving support from the West, did not win, but continues to suffer from a rupture with Russia. I don’t think that the Ukrainians in this respect, are stubborn as the Japanese, who reckon the Kuril Islands and their trying to pick them up.

Here, everything can happen much faster, at least because Ukraine is constantly in a state close to disintegration. And if it will break, the question would arise: which of the “Ukraine” to return the Crimea?

The risk of collapse is great because this country can’t manage its growth and the time to take steps that will allow it to survive. If Ukraine 10 years ago had a Federal reform, the Crimea would continue to be in its composition. Many residents of the Peninsula would continue to want to Russia, but outweighed would be the position of those who think that let it go. In Ukraine, in Ukraine. And the question of returning to Russia would be removed from the agenda permanently.

But the Ukrainian authorities have arranged everything exactly the opposite. They now do not make conclusions. And who knows who wants to get away from them tomorrow. It is very possible that it will be Western Ukraine, with its Lviv “Self-help” and their own domestic ambitions. It is not excluded that one day she wants to send away Kiev with all its attempts to dictate something to Lviv. Because the Westerners are kept in a part of Ukraine only based on the fact that we can draw from the common budget more than to invest. And when everything will be exactly the opposite — they will become the next separatist desire to have their own state closer to Europe and away from Kiev.

And here’s the situation, after which the title subject of Crimea is closed by itself. As the theme of the conflict between Russia and the West over Kiev.

The Ukrainian crisis. Chronicle of events

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