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Thursday, October 27, 2016

The summit of “big twenty” showed a weakening of US influence

Annual summits “the big twenty” have become a major international summit after the 2008 crisis. At the present meeting in Hangzhou to discuss global issues was purely ritual, and the main interest was the bilateral meeting. And then, as I watched Vladimir Putin on the background of the passing of Barack Obama.

Vladimir Putin in three days managed to meet half of the summit participants – it was held eight bilateral meetings and one five-sided (the BRICS). Thus, the Russian President spoke with 11 of the 19 leaders attending the summit (however, except the heads of the 20 largest economies in the world in Hangzhou were invited nine chapters developing States – and one of them President of Egypt, Putin also met). With two of the participants in the summit, Abe Japanese and Korean Pak, just before Putin spoke in Vladivostok.

“The summit in Hangzhou became Obama’s farewell as President, who else can decide something”

Thus, only with the leaders of the six participants of the summit the President of Russia these days is not held a formal meeting (except that it could be a small talk on the sidelines) is Italy, Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the European Union. But Italian Prime Minister Renzi and European Commission President Juncker was in St. Petersburg in June, and the Indonesian President Widodo arrived in Sochi in may – so there’s only three people.

With Mexican President peña Nieto relations, Putin obviously did not happen. This is evidenced by the simple fact that for three and a half years of his leadership of this country, the two leaders met at several international summits (and it is clear that they know each other), but between them there was not a single personal meeting. But Canada and Australia are faithful servants of the British crown – although, in fact, the only non-European participants in a failed “blockade of Russia”, which is already strongly prevaricate and Europeans. Moreover, in both countries just a year ago gave way to the premiere – and it seems that Putin has no particular desire to become acquainted with no young Yes early canadian Justin Trudeau or Aussie Malcolm Turnbull.

By the way, in Australia summit “twenty” in the fall of 2014, and it Atlanticists really wanted to demonstrate “isolation” of Putin over Ukraine. But by and large it was limited to the brave statements by the then Australian Prime Minister ahead of the summit, and an oral presentation of the then canadian Prime Minister about how he face expressed Putin to demand “get out of Ukraine”. The names of two former Prime Ministers now interested in only some of their compatriots, and instead of isolating Putin at this summit discussed the various incidents with Barack Obama.

For the American President Hangzhou was practically the last big summit. He will also be travelling in November to Lima at the annual meeting of APEC (Asia-Pacific economic cooperation) – these summits in recent years is going too, very personable company, including half of the “twenty”. For Obama Pacific summit will have important symbolic value, because it is when it, the US announced pivot to the region. To turn around, to retain global leadership and to contain China – and by the end of the Obama presidency all understand that it does not work.

But by the time the meeting in Lima Obama himself will be not interesting: it will turn from the current lame duck in man, from which nothing depends. Ten days before the Peruvian summit should be elected the new President of the United States. So the meeting in Hangzhou was for Obama’s farewell as President, who else can decide something. And everyone knew that the important thing is that he wants to solve, is to reach agreement with Russia on Syria.

It is necessary for Obama as a sign of his peacemaking: here, look, Syria was a civil war, and I still Dodavah of Putin, and he stopped bombing the anti-Assad opposition. Special practical sense, this agreement would have. The war in Syria will still go to the moment when Damascus will restore control over the entire territory of the country. It can take years, this can come through a coalition agreement with the part of the armed opposition or through its gradual destruction. But the outgoing administration needs to demonstrate its ability to “solve problems”: we left the new President is not the worst position on the “Syrian front”.

However, the political situation in the US is so bad for the ruling class, that no, of course not much to do with the ambitions of Obama. Betting on Clinton too high, also in Washington understand that to fix the reputation of USA in the middle East (for example, in the eyes of those same Saudis) only one agreement on Syria will not succeed. Still waiting for a new President with a new policy. The more that the probability that they will be Donald trump, a supporter of the policy of “let our allies pay more for what we protect them”.

Obama is not only outgoing, but also quite undiplomatic President. On the eve of the summit he said that the United States take a very tough stance in the conflict over territory in the South China sea to oppose the increasing activity of China in disputed waters:

“If you signed a contract that calls for resolve in international arbitration questions of the sea, the fact that you are more than the Philippines, Vietnam or another country that is not your reason to Flex their muscles”.

And although he has tried to smooth impression, adding that China needs to understand that “the growing power means growing responsibility,” the United States has “reached such power, partly because restrained himself,” it is clear that the Chinese like the Soviets made a very bad impression. Overseas power of China threatens consequences for the actions of the Chinese in their own sea.

So Obama in Hangzhou took as he deserved. The Chinese, of course, was not going to humiliate him, and pads ladder of the plane was technical, but Beijing took advantage of the occasion to Express their dissatisfaction with Washington. It was the statements by XI Jinping about the “fallacy” of the decision to allow U.S. missile defense system in South Korea, made them publicly at the meeting with the President of South Korea, addressed to Putin words about the importance of “firm support for the efforts of the other party on the defense of national sovereignty, security and development interests”.

And the fact that Vladimir Putin after summit expressed support for the Chinese position on non-recognition of the decision of the Hague arbitration on the disputed territories in the South China sea, shows that Russia solidarities with China in counter-American games in the region.

This is not news – the fact that Moscow and Beijing accused Washington of meddling in their relations with neighbors. Moreover, the situation in Ukraine and in the China seas have a lot in common. The United States carried out a policy of containment of Russia and China (in different ways, but with one goal). Not to allow the two countries to return to the former they have an impact on their zone of vital interests for Russia’s post-Soviet space, and China – Southeast Asia). In Europe to put pressure on Russia the US is using the EU, in Asia, trying to play on the contradictions of China and its neighbours. What si called “the strong support of the efforts of the other party on the defense of national sovereignty” means, and against the background of the beginning days of the Russian-Chinese exercises in the South China sea – that Moscow and Beijing are moving to more closely coordinate their actions to resist American pressure.

And it’s a real nightmare for US, because the Russia-China connection is the last thing you want to Washington. American strategists not so long ago continued to assert that Russian-Chinese rapprochement is short-lived. Now it became a reality, the two countries almost openly tell US what they think about their claims to world domination. Obama wanted to move the center of gravity of American influence and efforts from the Middle East to the Pacific ocean – and that he sees the end of his presidency?

In the middle East, the United States has indeed become less – but suddenly there came back to them, Russia actively perevarivaya disillusioned with U.S. allies. And the United States now limited in their capabilities in this region – they need to negotiate with Russia, which they unsuccessfully tried to punish Europe. Yes, it is for Kiev to hold, but you pay for that growth antiatlanticheskih sentiment in Europe, which in the future will lead to problems with the Old world.

And in the Pacific region, where Washington has deployed to contain China, Beijing would not have noticed this. Yes, Americans are able to maintain tense relations between Japan and China, to play on the fears of the Chinese to their southern neighbors, but China’s power has already is that long hold on the southern flanks of China, the US will not work. And on the Eastern borders of China begins a new game: Putin welcomes rapprochement with Russia, Japan and South Korea, which, of course, will eventually lead to a weakening of their orientation in the States.

This is the alignment most important for the USA and for the world Pacific front leaves his heir a Nobel laureate – but we still have to understand if America a chance to elect his successor.


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